ZeroHedge News

Russell Brand Found Guilty As 'Only Three Rapes' Defense Fails

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:35:00 +0000

Russell Brand Found Guilty As 'Only Three Rapes' Defense Fails

Russell Brand has been found guilty of rape and sexual assault, three days after his barrister asked jurors, "Why is it that only three rapes in 10 years?"

The 51-year-old comedian was convicted at Southwark Crown Court on Thursday of one count of rape and three of sexual assault, the Telegraph reported. The rape conviction relates to a young fan Brand met after one of his Hammersmith Apollo shows in 2009, and one of the sexual assaults to a woman at a Soho bar in 2004, according to GB News.

Brand had faced seven counts involving six women between 1999 and 2009, and pleaded not guilty to all of them. Reports did not immediately say whether the jury cleared him of the remaining three counts - two of rape and one of attempted indecent assault - or is still considering them.

Brand, who was accompanied to court by his wife Laura Gallacher, is expected to face a lengthy prison sentence.

As we reported on Wednesday, Brand's barrister, Ian Winter KC, closed the defense on Monday by turning his client's sex life into an argument for acquittal. "What matters is he had an immense amount of sex and none of it was unlawful," Winter told the jury of eight men and four women, which began deliberating on Tuesday.

Megyn Kelly, recapping the closing on her show, put the argument more bluntly: "He had a goal of 5,000, three women, three say he didn't consent out of 5,000. If this guy's running around just randomly raping women orally, vaginally, anally, wouldn't there be more?"

The 5,000 was never a count of partners. A former friend, Mark Pinheiro, testified that Brand once told him of an ambition to sleep with 5,000 women, which Brand denied on the stand: "No, not a goal."

Winter also told jurors the women "all came forward for reasons connected to the TV programme," arguing that the 2023 Channel 4 Dispatches investigation had "poisoned the well of justice." Scotland Yard opened its investigation in September 2023 after that program and the Sunday Times aired allegations from several women, and Brand was charged in April 2025 with five offenses against four women, all between 1999 and 2005.

The rape he was convicted of was not among those original charges. More women came forward after the publicity, and on Dec. 23 prosecutors added one count of rape and one of sexual assault, both from 2009, involving two more women.

Brand presented on BBC Radio 2 from 2006 until 2008, when he quit over his prank calls to actor Andrew Sachs, and the Telegraph noted the verdict adds to pressure on the BBC over how it policed its stars, after the Huw Edwards scandal and the Jimmy Savile affair.

Since leaving mainstream TV, Brand converted to Christianity, reinvented himself as an anti-establishment commentator and insisted the charges were politically motivated. Elon Musk publicly backed him when the allegations surfaced in 2023, and last year Tucker Carlson called on the Trump administration to "rescue" Brand from charges he described as "political and absurd," Variety reported.

Kelly broke with that camp from the start. When the allegations first aired, she told her listeners: "Could you please for a second stay open minded to the possibility that the women are telling the truth?"

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 09:35

The Bank Tied To Paraguay's President Just Collapsed, And Depositors Are In The Streets

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:30:00 +0000

The Bank Tied To Paraguay's President Just Collapsed, And Depositors Are In The Streets

Paraguay's central bank seized Ueno Bank on Tuesday, locking an estimated 3 million customers out of their money and setting off street protests and an impeachment bid against President Santiago Peña. The central bank's board voted unanimously late Monday to put the digital lender into "resolution," the regulator announced, after Ueno's solvency ratio fell below half the legal minimum. Customers could not withdraw or transfer a guaraní.

🇵🇾 Crisis del Banco Ueno en Paraguay deja a millones de clientes sin acceso a sus cuentas

📣 Un grupo de manifestantes se movilizó en Asunción (oeste) para rechazar la intervención de la institución bancaria, así como para exigir que se restablezca el acceso de los clientes a… pic.twitter.com/ybfa5xOJ5R
— Sputnik Mundo (@SputnikMundo) November 5, 2026

Ueno says its customers number about 3 million, roughly 60% of Paraguay's adult population, though Paraguayan press counts put the number of account holders nearer 1.7 million. It was also holding between $800 million and $850 million in public money, including about $380 million from the state pension and health fund, known as IPS. The central bank's own criminal complaint alleges that Ueno made large unsecured loans to companies inside its own corporate group and used new borrowing to cover repeated overdrafts, and describes an allegedly simulated $74.4 million sale of loans meant to hide that exposure, according to Diario HOY.

#BREAKING Paraguay's largest digital bank Ueno COLLAPSES

Central Bank seizes it after solvency ratio crashes and around 3 million customers are LOCKED OUT of app, cards & transfers.

Central Bank President Carlos Carvallo resigned right after pulling the plug. He previously ran... pic.twitter.com/A1LZsS1pLz
— Global OSINT (@GlobalOSINTHQ) November 5, 2026

The political problem is that Peña was a business partner of Ueno's owners until March 2025. The bank belongs to Grupo Vázquez, and Peña held shares in its holding company until an extraordinary shareholders' assembly cancelled his stake that month. He said in April 2025 that he was never a shareholder or investor in the bank itself, and Ueno says the same. He also appointed Carlos Carvallo to run the central bank in 2023, after Carvallo had chaired Ueno's predecessor, Financiera Ueno, until mid-2023. The central bank says Carvallo recused himself from every Ueno decision.

The warnings were not hidden. In June the central bank told Ueno it was lending too much to companies tied to its owners. In September the regulator opened an administrative investigation, and senators from Peña's own Colorado Party and the opposition began demanding that he replace the bank's leadership. On Oct. 29, the same day a central bank board member, economist Carmen Marín, resigned, Ueno announced a $100 million capital plan. Fitch had already moved its outlook on the bank to negative. Peña, for his part, repeatedly dismissed concerns about Ueno's finances and accused the media of fearmongering.

Once the bank went under, the central bank's own president became the first casualty. Peña said he asked Carvallo to resign. Carvallo said he had signed his resignation but would stay to oversee the takeover, because "the central bank needs calm to do its job." Peña has nominated Raúl Vera Bogado to replace him, subject to congressional approval.

Prosecutors ordered the arrest of eight people, including Ueno President Juan Manuel Gustale and chief executive Federico Miguel Vázquez Villasanti, and by Tuesday afternoon two more directors were in custody. By Wednesday evening a judge had accepted charges against 27 people, and prosecutors asked for pretrial detention for principal shareholder Miguel Vázquez and house arrest for seven other detained executives. Hearings for the eight were set for Thursday. Adjustments to Ueno's accounts exposed a shortfall of more than 1.6 trillion guaraníes (about $260 million) in funds set aside for losses, and the bank admitted it could not replenish $70 million in required reserves, per ABC Color.

Depositors took to the streets within hours. On Wednesday, a second day of protests, hundreds of savers, retirees, students and workers filled central Asunción near the Panteón de los Héroes, ABC Color reported. They demanded the immediate removal of Peña and Vice President Pedro Alliana.

"We demand the immediate removal of the President and the Vice President," one protester said [translated], adding that "this is not going to end today."
Another told the paper: "They hit the people's pocket and we cannot allow that."

Police used a water cannon and tear gas near Congress after what they said was an attempt to breach a security barrier, according to Última Hora. Some protesters said they would spend the night in the plaza next to the legislature.

Opposition lawmakers filed an impeachment request against Peña backed by 35 signatures, accusing him of conflicts of interest and failures of oversight and citing both his stake in Ueno's holding company and the Carvallo appointment. The Chamber of Deputies scheduled an extraordinary session for Thursday at 10 a.m. to take it up, with a separate request against Alliana to follow. That is a long shot, since Peña's Colorado Party controls both chambers, but dissident Colorado legislators are among those who presented it, and one of the party's vice presidents has called for Peña's expulsion. The presidency denied rumors Wednesday night that he was resigning.

Peña canceled a trip to an international summit in Spain, promised that "those responsible will have to answer to the courts, without exceptions or privileges," and agreed with congressional leaders to fast-track a law to speed payouts. A central bank guarantee fund covers up to about $38,000 per person, which preliminary estimates say fully protects roughly 97% of Ueno's depositors. Above that, the regulator has promised only "the greatest possible protection." Senate President Basilio Núñez, who has defended Peña and blamed the central bank, acknowledged that the Senate's first version of the law included a provision that cannot work while Ueno is in resolution, and the text is being amended.

The state pension fund says pensions will be paid as usual. IPS is moving about 32,000 retirees who collect through Ueno to another bank and plans legal action to recover its money. BNO's local sources put its exposure at about $355 million, 9% of its investment portfolio, a figure that differs from the roughly $380 million other reports give.

The collapse also impacts the narrative that Paraguay has been peddling to investors. The landlocked country won its first investment-grade ratings only recently on low taxes, light regulation and stability. It also ranked 150th of 182 countries in Transparency International's 2025 corruption index, tied with Bangladesh and the Central African Republic. Peña cannot seek reelection in 2028, and the crisis has already deepened a succession fight inside his party: Alliana had conditioned his own candidacy on the central bank clearing up doubts about the financial system.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 09:30

Life After AI: Where The Money Is Now Moving

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:25:00 +0000

Life After AI: Where The Money Is Now Moving

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

As I write this Thursday morning, Dow futures are green while Nasdaq futures are down roughly 0.5%. It’s a small but interesting divergence, and one that supports something I’ve been predicting for a while now: a rotation away from speculative technology and AI-related investments and toward established businesses with more predictable earnings and cash flows.

I continue to believe tech, particularly the more speculative corners of the AI trade, is headed lower over the short to medium term. Yesterday’s rally didn’t change that view. As I discussed yesterday, citing Gordon Johnson, I think much of the move could be attributable to VIX compression and the unwinding of election-related hedges. Once the election uncertainty disappeared, investors no longer needed as much protection, implied volatility fell, and the resulting repositioning helped push stocks higher.

That doesn’t mean there wasn’t genuine buying, or that the market can’t rally further. But I would be careful about mistaking a mechanical relief rally for a fundamental improvement in the outlook. Valuations remain stretched, financing costs remain a problem, and the economics of the AI infrastructure boom are increasingly difficult to justify. The election, in my opinion, added another layer of risk rather than removing one.

What interests me more than yesterday’s index performance is where money appears to be moving to.

For a few months, I’ve been arguing that 2027 could be characterized by a rotation away from speculative AI and technology investments and toward larger, established companies with real earnings and durable businesses.

The relative action in some names I’ve pointed out, including Nike (NKE), Costco (COST) Microsoft (MSFT), Uber (UBER), Consumer Staples (VDC) and McDonald’s (MCD), along with several other companies I’ve been watching, suggests that process may already be underway. Names like these are outperforming the NASDAQ and that outperformance appeared to accelerate during yesterday’s rally.

These businesses have very different exposures, but they share an important characteristic: investors can evaluate them based on existing operations and identifiable earnings power, rather than exclusively on extraordinary assumptions about future growth.

Microsoft, for example, may face legitimate questions about its AI spending, but it has the financial resources to fund those ambitions without continually returning to capital markets.

Interestingly, JPMorgan’s trading desk described a similar pattern yesterday. According to an X post by Zero Hedge, JPM’s Brian Heavey noted a clear preference for large-cap quality, particularly companies with access to financing and ownership of computing infrastructure. The desk observed demand for hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, while second-tier AI infrastructure names like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS), which are more dependent on continued capital raising, showed weakness.

As I noted on a brief X Spaces call yesterday, names with leverage (like CoreWeave) and inconsistent cash flows will be the first to be abandoned in the AI space. Quality like Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN) and the likes will be the beneficiaries, though I personally don’t love Apple (AAPL) here at 40x earnings.

JPMorgan also noted that AI data-center names were generally underperforming, while more cyclical analog semiconductor companies like Texas Instruments (TXN) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) were showing relative strength.

Matt Reiner, also from JPMorgan, described relatively subdued trading activity, with volumes running approximately 16% below normal early in the session today.

Long-only investors were buying, particularly cyclicals, while hedge funds were shorting technology into weakness. He also observed that investors were adding mega-cap technology exposure in relatively small size, while becoming more receptive to shorting the broader AI complex.

To me, the message is fairly straightforward: investors aren’t necessarily abandoning technology, but they appear to be becoming more selective about which parts of it they want to own. The distinction between companies that generate capital and companies that constantly need to raise it is becoming increasingly important.

I was also interested to hear about Citrini Research’s latest State of the Themes report, covered this morning by Dow Jones’ MarketWatch. The firm is now making an argument remarkably similar to one I’ve been discussing for roughly two months, when the Nasdaq was approximately 10% higher. But that’s great. Citrini does good work, there’s plenty of room in this lifeboat and I’m happy to see some validation on my thoughts from August, when I wrote: The Real AI Crash Will Start This Year

85% OFF FOREVER IF YOU SUBSCRIBE TODAY: I am again offering an 85% discount to anyone that wants to become a Fringe Finance annual subscriber today. It’s a discount you can keep and stays applied for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber: Get 85% off forever

Citrini’s central prediction is that we’re approaching peak growth in AI capital expenditures. The firm estimates that annualized hyperscaler investment is approaching $1 trillion, while annual recurring revenue across the AI ecosystem is roughly one-fifth of that amount. Those aren’t directly comparable financial measures, but the disparity highlights the fundamental question I’ve been asking: where are the returns on all this spending?

The firm argues what I have written about the last month or two…that capital markets cannot indefinitely accommodate the extraordinary financing demands of the hyperscalers and that spending growth will eventually have to decelerate. It also points to growing pricing competition between OpenAI and Anthropic, the potential commoditization of AI models, and the increasing risk that AI disrupts established software businesses without necessarily producing attractive returns for the companies building it. It’s Official: The AI Emperor Has No Clothes

This among other things, was also covered in an article I published in August reviewing 8 different bear cases facing the market by 8 well known respected investors: 8 Sharp Bear Cases You Must Read Today

Add the election’s potential implications for data-center permitting, energy infrastructure, and regulatory oversight, and the investment case becomes even more complicated.

Perhaps most interestingly, Citrini is also shifting attention toward relative value and overlooked parts of the real economy, including consumer businesses, traditional software, financials, entertainment, and energy. Its report highlights companies like Victoria’s Secret, e.l.f. Beauty, IMAX, Cinemark, and MGM Resorts, alongside relative-value trades within technology. I like their take a lot. Hopefully, we’re both right.

Their take fits with my broader expectation that the next phase of the market may favor established businesses over speculative promises. It doesn’t mean AI disappears or that every technology stock declines. It means the days of indiscriminately rewarding anything associated with AI may be ending.

Overnight trading in Asia also reflected that possibility. South Korea’s Kospi fell roughly 5%, with semiconductor names like Samsung and SK Hynix under significant pressure, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 3.6% as Tencent and Alibaba rallied more than 6%.

One session doesn’t establish a trend, but taken alongside JPMorgan’s observations and this morning’s Dow/Nasdaq divergence, the evidence of a potential rotation is becoming more interesting.

There’s another possible explanation for some of yesterday’s relative strength in large technology companies and data-center names like Microsoft. As I discussed yesterday, Elon Musk and his businesses could become particularly prominent targets for scrutiny under the new political environment.

If congressional attention initially concentrates on Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, and Musk’s relationships with the federal government, other technology companies could enjoy some relative relief simply because investors perceive them as less immediately exposed. That’s speculative, but plausible, and it doesn’t mean the broader AI industry is out of the woods.

In fact, I expect news flow surrounding Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX to be directionally negative for a while. Questions involving autonomous driving, government contracts, environmental permitting, subsidies, and political relationships could all attract greater attention. That doesn’t imply wrongdoing or guarantee enforcement action, but it introduces uncertainty into businesses whose valuations already reflect enormous expectations.

I also want to emphasize another risk I didn’t spend enough time discussing yesterday: prediction markets.

I think these platforms could come under serious congressional and regulatory scrutiny, particularly around the distinction between financial instruments and gambling, potential market manipulation, insider information, and contracts tied to political events.

Robinhood (HOOD) is the most obvious publicly traded name I associate with this exposure, although other public companies have interests in the broader ecosystem. Prediction markets generated $433 million in revenue in the first nine months of 2026, compared with just $40 million in the comparable 2025 period. That makes them one of Robinhood's most important growth engines

Prediction markets aren’t necessarily going away, but I suspect investors may be underestimating the political and regulatory risks associated with their rapid expansion.

I also wanted to, again, reiterate the sector postives and negatives I see from the election that I laid out yesterday. Here’s what sectors I think will face headwinds, and others I think will benefit from yesterday’s election outcome.

My outlook remains essentially unchanged…both since yesterday’s reaction, since last week’s speculation the election could crash markets, and since August when I first floated the idea of the AI crash.

I still expect technology, particularly speculative AI infrastructure, to move lower over the short to medium term. Yesterday’s rally looked to me like a significant amount of election-related hedging being unwound, not evidence that the fundamental problems facing the sector have disappeared.

At the same time, I think we’re beginning to see evidence of the rotation I’ve been anticipating for 2027. JPMorgan’s trading desk is observing demand for large-cap quality and more selective technology exposure. Citrini is now advocating a shift toward relative value and overlooked real-economy businesses. And this morning, Dow futures are outperforming Nasdaq futures, widening the spread between the two from the last month…

None of that guarantees the rotation will persist. A meaningful decline in interest rates, stronger-than-expected earnings, or convincing evidence of attractive returns on AI spending could change the outlook. And established large-cap businesses aren’t automatically cheap or immune to a broader market decline.

But the combination of stretched valuations, enormous capital requirements, sticky inflation, potentially higher-for-longer interest rates, and a more complicated political environment continues to make me cautious.

I don’t think the next phase of this market will necessarily be about abandoning equities altogether. I think it will be about abandoning the assumption that every speculative growth story deserves an extraordinary valuation.

I’ve been making that argument for two months, since the Nasdaq was roughly 10% higher. It’s encouraging to see more institutional commentary moving in the same direction, but I suspect the adjustment still has further to run.

The rally hasn’t changed my mind. If anything, the emerging rotation is making the underlying thesis more compelling. God bless and have a great Thursday.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 09:25

Iran Carves Out Strait Of Hormuz Exemptions For China, India, Iraq, Qatar

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:10:00 +0000

Iran Carves Out Strait Of Hormuz Exemptions For China, India, Iraq, Qatar

In a significant albeit underreported development for global energy, and for the US-Iran standoff in the Persian Gulf, Iranian parliament has this week announced it is exempting several key trading partniers from its oil transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The move was first unvieled Tuesday by Ahmad Hayat-Moghaddam, Vice Chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, at a moment Iranian export flows are struggling under the many months-long US naval blockade of the country's ports.

"We have currently exempted India, China, Iraq and Qatar from transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Ships from these countries pass freely," Hayat-Moghaddam stated in an interview to the Iranian Student’s News Agency (SNA).

via Associated Press

He described that this also aimed at shoring up "mutual interests" among countries that have long done business with one another.

The Iranian official also sought to frame the change as arising out of joint humanitarian concerns:

Tehran is facilitating the movement of Indian ships for the purpose of medicines, while Chinese ships are exempted from the restrictions to “secure” Beijing’s political support, Hayat-Moghaddam told SNA.

His comments suggested further that the US Navy doesn't block these ships from passing, which could explain how Iran has continued to get oil and wares out to global markets despite the blockade. "The Americans do not interfere with them either," he claimed.

According to more of the remarks:

Elaborating on the rationale behind the decision, the lawmaker noted that the Islamic Republic does not levy transit tolls on Qatari vessels and that each exemption was granted based on specific considerations and agreements. Hayat-Moghaddam remarked: “We are conducting business, and each of these exemptions has a distinct reason.”
According to the MP, India’s exemption was designed to facilitate medicine imports into Iran, while China’s exemption aims to secure political backing from Beijing for the Islamic Republic.

October saw a record number of attacks on commercial vessels by Iran, keeping geopolitical risk elevated across the region; however, what was a near-daily pace of the attacks seems to have slowed, for now.

Even global media reporting has slowed in terms of an Iranian focus, having given way to the midterm elections and major Democratic gains in the US.

#BREAKING

BIG FOR INDIA

Iran announces exemptions for Indian ships from Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions.

Senior Iranian lawmaker Amir Hayat Moqaddam says vessels from India, China, Iraq and Qatar will be allowed to pass through the strategically vital waterway

The… pic.twitter.com/1Y5hK0jlAe
— Nabila Jamal (@nabilajamal_) November 4, 2026

President Trump has still held off on prior threats to resume a major bombing campaign after the midterm elections - but this is a possibility still on the table. The Democratic sweep and impending control of the House and Senate might perhaps make renewed major war a more distant possibility.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 09:10

How The Historic Blue Tsunami Could End In Tears For Democrats

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:00:00 +0000

How The Historic Blue Tsunami Could End In Tears For Democrats

Democrats are celebrating one of their biggest midterm victories in decades, but their historic triumph could come with a nasty political hangover.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, right, and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, both of New York Anadolu via Getty Images file

The party's sweeping gains in Tuesday's elections delivered a major rebuke to President Donald Trump, as voter frustration over the Iran war, soaring gas prices and the cost of living fueled a nationwide Democratic surge.

However, the New York Post's Isaac Schorr argued in an op-ed that Democrats' biggest victory could quickly become their next political headache.

The problem is simple: Trump isn't going anywhere.

Schorr argues that even with Congress under Democratic control, Trump's veto power could prevent the party from delivering on its legislative agenda:

"With President Donald Trump in the White House and his veto pen in hand, they won't be able to push through any of their major agenda items"

However, there is another problem, according to Schorr:

"His caucus won't let him work with Trump during his waning days in the White House"

Schorr suggests Democrats could negotiate deals on energy production, immigration enforcement and government spending. Instead, the columnist predicts the party will prioritize confrontation:

"Alas, instead it'll be all talk and no work on behalf of their constituents."

Schorr also warned that Democrats could revive divisive battles over immigration, spending, climate policy and transgender participation in women's sports, while potentially pursuing another impeachment of Trump.

Schorr closed with a warning that could prove prescient:

"But they're equally likely to give themselves a years-long hangover - by reminding Americans of who they really are."

Republicans suffered a string of major Senate defeats in states long considered Republican strongholds. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico toppled Ken Paxton, while Adam Hamilton ousted Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas. Moreover, the biggest shock came in South Carolina, where Annie Andrews defeated Sen. Darline Graham, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham.

Democrats also flipped House districts across the country, securing control of both chambers of Congress.

LAWYER UP.
— Congressman Robert Garcia (@RepRobertGarcia) November 4, 2026

Yet, in surprising twist that could complicate Schorr's argument, Trump revealed last night that he has already spoke with Democrat leaders and expressed a willingness to work together.

"Well, we're going to work with the Democrats to make sure things go well for our country. Very important. They've already called and they want to work with," Trump told POLITICO's Dasha Burns. "[I] have the right to veto everything, but I don't want to be just sitting there for two years vetoing everything. They want to see things happen, too."

However, Democrats now have the power to investigate the Trump administration and block legislation, and they're already talking tough. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) wasted no time sending Trump and his Republican allies a blunt two-word warning: "Lawyer up."

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 09:00

"Neither Does It Seem To Be The Last": Bank Of England Hikes For First Time Since 2023, Sees Inflation Near 5%

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 13:57:44 +0000

"Neither Does It Seem To Be The Last": Bank Of England Hikes For First Time Since 2023, Sees Inflation Near 5%

For the first time in 1,190 days, the Bank of England has raised interest rates.

On Thursday the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to lift Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.00%, the first hike since August 3, 2023, when the BoE topped out at 5.25%. And the lone dissenter was no dove: external member Catherine Mann wanted a half-point move to 4.25%. Put differently, not a single one of the nine MPC members voted to keep rates on hold, which is a little more hawkish than consensus: Goldman and JPMorgan both expected a 7-2 vote (Goldman's STIR desk had Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor as the holdouts), while Deutsche Bank's UK economists were looking for a 6-3 split.

Even the doves came along, if grudgingly. Alan Taylor, one of the most dovish members of the committee, called it "a risk management, 'one-for-now' insurance hike," while Governor Andrew Bailey, in his own written paragraph, went a step further:

"I can see the argument for a further increase in rates and thereafter taking a more conditional approach... Today's increase shouldn't be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes. But, unless the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, neither does it seem to be the last increase."

In other words, December is live, and traders took the hint: according to Bloomberg, the market now prices roughly a 50% chance of another quarter-point hike next month, and almost three more 25bp hikes by the end of 2027. Two-year gilt yields rose 3bps to 4.77%, and the pound steadied around $1.3472.

Regular readers won't be surprised. Back in March, just weeks into the Iran war, a 9-0 "hawkish hold" sent UK gilt yields exploding higher on a surprise BoE rate-hike threat, with 2Y yields jumping 30bps in a day. And in September, when the BoE held at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote (Mann, Huw Pill and Megan Greene already voting to hike), we warned that the decision would "leave a near-term hike firmly in play," so we'll allow ourselves a modest victory lap.

BoE Hold Masks A Sharper Bias Towards Tightening

The Bank of England held the Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6–3 vote, as expected, but shifted closer to further tightening. Energy prices have risen sharply since July, lifting the Bank’s early-2027 inflation forecast above 4%, while…
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 17, 2026

With today's move, the BoE joins a club that is getting crowded: the Fed hiked for the first time since July 2023 back in September, the RBA has been hiking into a housing slump, and with Euro area headline inflation at a 3-year high of 4.0%, the ECB probably isn't far behind. Which, as Goldman put it last weekend, makes central banks the market's last "source of calm"... "good luck."

From 3.2% To 4.9% In One Report

The reason for the hawkish turn is in the BoE's new November Monetary Policy Report. CPI inflation, which was 3.5% in September, is now projected to peak at 4.9% in Q2 2027, the highest since September 2023. Just three months ago, in the July forecasts, the BoE saw inflation peaking at a much more benign 3.2%. That's quite a revision for one quarter, even by central bank forecasting standards.

Most of the overshoot is mechanical: household utility bills and motor fuel accounted for around 60% of September's overshoot of the 2% target, and it's about to get worse. The Ofgem price cap is expected to rise to around £2,150 in Q1 2027 from £1,723 in Q4, a ~25% jump in household energy bills in January, with another increase likely in April. Direct energy effects alone are projected to add around 1.4 percentage points to CPI in Q1.

The BoE admits there is "limited evidence" so far of second-round effects in wages and prices, but it suspects that is a timing issue: firms have been shielded by "hedging and long-term fixed price contracts," and the MPC fears pass-through will come once those expire. And the scenarios are not pretty. In the adverse case of repeated escalations in the Iran conflict, CPI hits 6.2% in Q3 2027; in the "weaker demand" scenario, inflation instead collapses to 1.2%, which would, ironically, require rate cuts.

Meanwhile the economy has been more resilient than the BoE expected (or maybe just more resilient than it wanted): the 2026 GDP forecast was upgraded to 1.6% from 1.1%, and 2027 to 1.3% from 1.1%, although 2028 was cut to 1.2% from 1.7% on the assumption that the energy shock lingers. The MPC's verdict: while "policy was still restrictive" before Thursday's hike, "it was less clear that this would impart sufficiently disinflationary pressure to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner."

Bailey had been laying the groundwork for weeks. Here was the Governor a month ago:

*BAILEY: INFLATION RISKS RISE LONGER HIGH ENERGY PRICES PERSIST

*BAILEY: EVIDENCE OF INFLATION PASS-THROUGH SUBDUED AT MOMENT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 8, 2026

Hiking Into An Oil Crash

There is just one small problem with the BoE's inflation math: the oil price it's built on no longer exists.

The MPR's projections are conditioned on energy futures averaged over the 15 working days to October 27, during which front-month Brent averaged $108 per barrel, around 70% above pre-war levels, while UK gas futures over the forecast horizon were some 120% above their pre-conflict levels.

Then the US midterms happened. As we detailed yesterday, crude crashed as the "Blue-nami" sparked market chaos, with Brent plunging 8.7% on Wednesday to close at $94.62, beneath $100 for the first time since September, after Vance boldly admitted that "the reason we lost is the war." Physical markets were already flashing the same signal, flipping from bidding war to fire sale as Gulf barrels flood back.

That's roughly 12% below the oil price the BoE plugged into its forecast (napkin math, and Brent is a moving target). Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid noted in his Early Morning Reid that the oil slide "significantly dampen[ed] fears over inflation," and the market agreed: the Euro 1-year inflation swap plunged 25.9bps on the day to a two-month low of 3.10%.

JPMorgan's Federico Manicardi was even more explicit in his morning briefing (available to pro subs), writing that the market reads the Democratic sweep as a "flatter geopolitical risk curve on Iran," and that "lower Brent/Gas risk premia with the global oil balance already back in surplus (+1.4 mbd in October vs ~+1.3 mbd on avg last year) should ease pressure on central banks."

Good news for UK households, maybe. Less so for the credibility of a forecast that was stale before it was even published. To be fair to the BoE, the MPR itself warns that inventories are thin, European gas storage is below average and a cold winter could send prices spiking again. And Iran just rejected the latest draft proposal to end the war, so nobody should be declaring the energy shock over just yet.

Goldman: One More In February, But The Market Is Getting Ahead Of Itself

So where does Bank Rate go from here? Going into the meeting, Goldman's European economists led by Sven Jari Stehn had already pencilled in a second hike, writing in their BoE preview, "A Hike with Noncommittal Guidance" (available to pro subs), that they "now expect a second Bank Rate hike to 4.25% in February given continued upward pressure on energy prices and the stronger recent activity and labour market figures." But there is a big caveat:

"We continue to think that market pricing for over 100bp of tightening over the next year looks too high given that second-round effects into wages look contained and consumer spending growth is likely to slow over the winter."

Goldman's STIR trader Daryl Li was even blunter in this morning's GS Morning note from Adam Crook (available to pro subs). With the December, February and March meetings pricing a cumulative 36bps (down from 41bps the day before), he thinks "this pricing has more to come out with or without de-escalation, mainly because the data has been good but not exponential - we should be pricing between 0-1 hikes per quarter, not 1-2." His take on December:

"With the war still unresolved, receiving it is a short vol trade and probably can only get down to a 4bps minimum. It feels like the right trade and we need a re-escalation, with gas pushing towards 120+, before Dec MPC is truly on the table."

Well, after Bailey's "neither does it seem to be the last" line, December pricing went the other way, to roughly a coin flip. Goldman FX salesman Matt Atherton had flagged exactly this risk in his FX Morning Update (also available to pro subs), writing that the desk saw "a greater risk of an 8-1 vote rather than a tighter call," and that the key tell would be in the individual paragraphs: "greater emphasis on risks points to a December hike while greater emphasis on evidence points to more gradual hiking." Bailey's paragraph leaned a lot more toward risks than evidence.

Here's the thing though: the BoE's own staff sort of agree with Goldman. The MPR's illustrative policy paths, which the BoE stresses do not "translate mechanically" into decisions, show that the central projection requires a restrictive stance, but that "a somewhat looser policy stance than implied by the market curve is appropriate on average." In fact, the BoE's own projections, which assume Bank Rate peaks somewhere in the 4.75% to 5% range, get CPI below the 2% target by 2029, implying just one or two more hikes are needed.

One-For-Now... Or The Start Of A Hiking Cycle Nobody Wants?

That leaves the BoE with a familiar dilemma. Hike too little, and the 2022 nightmare repeats, when an energy and food shock bled into wages and services prices and kept inflation above target far longer than the Bank expected (the MPR itself warns that five years of high inflation may have made firms and workers quicker to raise prices and demand higher pay this time around). Hike too much, and the MPC is tightening into a supply shock just as UK households absorb a 25% jump in energy bills, with the "weaker demand" scenario showing inflation crashing to 1.2%. We asked back in March whether an oil supply shock really warrants central bank hikes; eight months later, the BoE has decided it does, just as oil is collapsing.

Our take: Taylor's "one-for-now" label is probably closer to the truth than the market's three-more-hikes path. If Brent holds below $100 and the Middle East keeps de-escalating, the BoE's 4.9% peak will be revised down by February, and the second-round effects the MPC is insuring against may never show up in the size it fears. If, on the other hand, Iran re-escalates and gas heads to 120+, then Goldman's trader is right that December is truly on the table, and the BoE will look prescient for hiking before the second shock rather than after it.

Either way, Bailey has managed something quite impressive: hiking rates the day after Brent crashed below $100. Then again, after showing up famously late to the 2021-22 inflation party, maybe the BoE just decided that being early is the lesser evil.

Much more in the full Goldman BoE preview, "A Hike with Noncommittal Guidance," and the "GS Morning" note, both available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 08:57

Truist Slaps Nike With Sell Rating As Jordan Franchise Implodes

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 13:45:00 +0000

Truist Slaps Nike With Sell Rating As Jordan Franchise Implodes

Nike's rally from roughly $34 a share in October to above $40 by midweek has done little to ease Wall Street analysts' skepticism about its turnaround strategy.

Earlier this week, UBS analyst Pilar Rocafort told clients, "It's still not time to buy Nike." Truist Securities reinforced Rocafort's caution on the stock in a note Thursday morning, downgrading the shares to Sell from Hold, citing "risks across the portfolio" and "an inflated valuation."

"NKE shares are up 19% over the past ~month (vs S&P flat), which we believe reflects positive sector rotations rather than an improvement in underlying fundamentals," Truist Securities retail analyst Joseph Civello wrote in a note.

Civello maintained a $29 price target and warned that fading Jordan demand, deepening weakness in China, and mounting competition threaten an already expensive stock.

How expensive is Nike at around $40 a share?

Well, Civello said its valuation is currently around 27 times second-year forward earnings, compared with about 15 times for peers. He said prices look cheap after the multi-year bear market, but anyone buying the stock today is paying a steep premium for a turnaround whose timeline keeps slipping.

The Jordan franchise is a key problem, the analyst continued:

For example, initial commentary on deliberate product pullbacks centered much more heavily on 3 classic franchises (AJ1, AF1 & Dunks) but has spread much more deeply & broadly across Sportswear and Jordan (60%+ of the overall business). We believe that hyped retro launches like the "Royal" AJ1, Jordan 14 Forest Green, and the Air Jordan 6 "White Infrared" (launching on 11/7), with five of seven recent Nike/Jordan launches all selling below retail, suggest meaningful brand pressure.

On top of this all, the analyst warned that the downturn in the Chinese market has yet to conclude:

We think visibility into where/when China bottoms is very limited – Despite recently becoming CFO on 8/17, Dave Denton materially slashed the China outlook, characterizing prior internal expectations as overly optimistic. Guidance now calls for the region to get worse through the year (vs F1Q's 26% CC declines) with the digital cleanup expected to take “multiple seasons.”
In our view, mgmt's historical optimism that trends in the country would eventually improve led to them getting complacent in the region, which when combined with broadly stale innovation/marketing has driven meaningful pressure on brand equity. We struggle to identify a clear catalyst path for reaccelerating demand in the region in the NT/MT, especially as competition from local & other western brands continues to get more intense.

To sum up the note, these mounting pressures suggest Nike's latest rally has outpaced its underlying recovery. Civello maintained his $29 price target, signaling the turnaround timeline could be longer than expected.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 08:45

'Low Hire, Low Fire, Low Inspire': Claims Hit 57 Year Lows, Sentiment Still Sucks, And Payrolls Are Next

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 13:35:00 +0000

'Low Hire, Low Fire, Low Inspire': Claims Hit 57 Year Lows, Sentiment Still Sucks, And Payrolls Are Next

Another week, another print showing that American employers still refuse to fire anyone in any meaningful numbers.

Initial jobless claims remain parked near multi-decade lows, plunging to 189k this week (after recent weeks in the mid-to-high 190,000s), confirming that the 'low fire' half of the current labor market is intact. Last week's print is officially the lowest since 1969...

And Continuing claims are holding around 1.7 million Americans...

Layoffs simply are not happening at scale.

That is the good news, such as it is.

The less comforting half is the 'low hire' reality that has now persisted for roughly three years. September JOLTS showed openings rebounding to 7.52 million and the openings rate at 4.5 percent, yet the hires rate stayed stuck at 3.4 percent with roughly 5.4 million hires. Net payroll growth has averaged in the low-to-mid tens of thousands for most of 2026. Companies are holding onto the workers they already have, posting some vacancies, and then mostly not filling them. Churn is low, mobility is limited, and the labor market has lost the dynamism that used to define expansions.

Which brings us to the 'low inspire' part that the hard data refuse to capture. University of Michigan sentiment closed October at 48.0 - flat, still near historical lows, and dominated by purchasing-power complaints, elevated inflation expectations (year-ahead ~4.7 percent), and a sense that higher rates and sticky prices have permanently eroded real incomes. The Conference Board’s confidence index managed a rebound to 91.7 in October on the back of cheaper gasoline and better present-situation readings, but the expectations component remains soft (72.6) and well below the levels that historically signaled healthy forward momentum. People still have jobs. They just do not feel particularly good about any of it.

This is the strange equilibrium the economy has settled into: resilient enough that mass layoffs have not materialized and recession odds from the employment side stay contained, yet weak enough on hiring and confidence that there is little acceleration. It is a labor market that supports the soft-landing narrative on paper while delivering almost none of the broad-based enthusiasm or wage-and-spending vigor that used to accompany 'full employment.'

Tomorrow's payrolls report will be read against exactly this backdrop. A number in the 50–80k range (or even a modest upside surprise) will be spun as 'resilient' and consistent with the low-fire claims data. A soft print will be explained away as noise or as further evidence of the low-hire regime rather than the start of something worse.

Either way, the deeper tension remains: hard data keep saying the floor is still solid, soft data keep saying almost no one is inspired by the view from that floor. Markets will trade the headline.

The real story is the one that has not changed in months - low hire, low fire, and still very little inspire.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 08:35

Hakeem Jeffries Claims Impeachment And Getting Even With Trump Aren't Priorities

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 13:30:00 +0000

Hakeem Jeffries Claims Impeachment And Getting Even With Trump Aren't Priorities

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told reporters Wednesday morning after Democrats swept the midterms and won majorities in the House and Senate that no House Democrat has raised the subject of impeaching President Donald Trump with him.

Jeffries speaks during a press conference (Credit: Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)

"I haven't had a single member of the House Democratic Caucus talk to me about impeachment," Jeffries claimed. "We've been relentlessly focused on affordability and on accountability because the House is a separate and co-equal branch of government."

.@RepJeffries: "I haven't had a single member of the House Democratic Caucus talk to me about impeachment...I have not heard from President Trump." pic.twitter.com/umZspxCyhN
— CSPAN (@cspan) November 4, 2026

Jeffries, who is expected to be elected House Speaker in the next session of Congress, said impeaching Trump does not rank among his priorities, even though he used "accountability" in the same statement along with "affordability."

Despite the contradiction, he made the same case during an appearance on MSNOW's Morning Joe, where he outlined his agenda for the incoming House.

"The American people don't want us to get even," Jeffries claimed on Morning Joe. "They want us to get things done on their behalf because life is way too expensive. We ran on affordability. We won on affordability. And now it's our job to govern on affordability."

Jeffries insisted Democrats had campaigned on lowering prices for groceries, gas, housing, and health care.

"As a matter of fact, we made clear that we're fighting for an affordable America and explicitly promised the American people that we would fight hard to lower the high costs of groceries and gas and housing, and that we were gonna fight hard to make sure that healthcare was affordable for every single American, and that hardworking American taxpayers who are working hard and playing by the rules, they should be able to live an affordable life," he said. "That's our mission, that's our responsibility, and we're gonna work hard to make that happen."

Hakeem Jeffries on Morning Joe: The American people don't want us to get even. They want us to get things done on their behalf because life is way too expensive.

We ran on affordability, we won on affordability, and now it's our job to govern on affordability. pic.twitter.com/b5ieQUbMRO
— Clipping Wings (@ClippingWings) November 4, 2026

However, there's reason to be skeptical of his claims. When asked about impeachment before the election, Jeffries said Democrats "haven't ruled anything in, and we haven't ruled anything out." Other Democrats have spent months pledging a wave of investigations once the party regained power, and several have said Trump already meets the threshold for removal. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) has repeatedly claimed Trump has committed numerous impeachable offenses during his second term.

Democrat Jamie Raskin - instead of working for Americans - wants to impeach President Trump but can't name an offense.

NBC: Do you believe Trump has committed impeachable offenses?

RASKIN: "Undoubtedly...we don't have time to remotely scratch the surface." pic.twitter.com/sgwJu3T42i
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 6, 2026

Raskin led the second impeachment of Trump in 2021, after the January 6 Capitol riot. The Senate acquitted Trump in that trial, as it did in the first impeachment in 2020.

Further undermining Jeffries' claim that Democrats aren't interested in impeachment or revenge, Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA), the incoming chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, released a statement after the party secured its majority, vowing to "take on the Trump Crime Family, corporate corruption, DHS and ICE abuses, and the cover-up of the Epstein files."

Official statement from incoming chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform @RepRobertGarcia: pic.twitter.com/A4MDkPTjzq
— Oversight Dems (@OversightDems) November 4, 2026

Pressure for investigations is also coming from the party's progressive wing. Fox News reported Wednesday evening that many progressives want Democrats, who will hold majorities in both the House and the Senate, to open investigations into Trump, his family and administration officials.

Progressive commentator Brian Tyler Cohen described what he hears from his audience in a statement to Fox News Digital.

"As content creators, we hear from huge, diverse audiences, and they all want the same thing: a government that works for them: lower costs, leaders who listen, and accountability when people abuse their power," Cohen said. "Delivering results and pursuing accountability go hand in hand, provided investigations follow the evidence and serve the public."

"Creators helped people get involved in this election, and we're going to keep those conversations going, helping audiences stay informed and judge whether their elected leaders are delivering," Cohen added.

People close to the president expect a third impeachment attempt. A Trump confidant told Axios last month that a Democratic investigative push would produce a confrontation between the two sides.

"If Democrats win and start the investigations, he'll get more defiant ... Democrats won't be able to resist impeachment and he won't be able to resist daring them to do it. You think you control Donald Trump? Well, f**k you. You don't," the confidant said.

The White House said Trump remains open to working with the new majority and criticized the prospect of investigations into his administration.

"As the President has said, he's willing to work with anyone to continue delivering victories for hardworking Americans," White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis told Fox News Digital. "If Democrats choose to pursue sham investigations and radical left policies, they are choosing to work against the American people."

A White House official separately pointed to the administration's federal authority as Democrats prepare to use investigations and subpoenas.

"If crazed Democrats want to abuse their power and politicize their process of investigations, subpoenas, and destroying lives, they should be reminded that we still control the federal government and all of its powers," the official said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 08:30

Futures Split As Blue-Wave Chip Purge Enters Day Two; Oil Rebounds, BoE Hikes

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 13:20:32 +0000

Futures Split As Blue-Wave Chip Purge Enters Day Two; Oil Rebounds, BoE Hikes

US futures are mixed, with the Nasdaq lagging as the post-midterm rotation out of chipmakers and the AI complex enters a second day, after the Democratic sweep raised fears of a data center backlash, Qualcomm tumbled on a weak forecast and the Kospi crashed almost 6%, while oil rebounded modestly from Wednesday's plunge and the BoE hiked rates for the first time in three years; as a result the 10Y yield touched 4.83%, the lowest since Sept. 10. As of 6:20am ET, S&P futures are 0.1% higher while Nasdaq futures are down 0.5%, Russell 2000 futures add 0.4% and Dow futures are 0.7%; this follows Wednesday's session when the S&P jumped 1.6% for its best day since August and the Dow soared 3%. In premarket trading, semis are again getting hit (the SOXX ETF was down 2% premarket per Bloomberg) with Qualcomm sliding 10% after a lackluster forecast, continuing the hyperscalers vs semis split we flagged yesterday, while the Mag 7 is mixed with Amazon and Meta higher and Tesla and Nvidia lower; AppLovin soars 16% on blowout guidance. The day's driver is the blue wave (again): with Democrats set to control both chambers, traders are pricing tighter regulation of data centers (Goldman sees moratoria potentially hitting about 45% of planned US data centre capacity expansion), a quicker end to the Iran war and less fiscal largesse, which is why hyperscalers that own compute are bid and everything that builds, powers or supplies it is offered. Treasuries are extending their rally, with the 10Y at 4.87% after earlier touching 4.83%, as the midterm result fuels expectations that the administration's tax and spending plans will be contained and after the Treasury's refunding hinted at less long-end issuance. The dollar is flat after its worst day in two months, cable erased losses after the BoE hiked 25bps to 4% in an 8-1 vote (Mann wanted 50bps) and Bailey warned it was unlikely to be the last hike unless the Iran war is resolved. In commodities, Brent rebounds 1.6% to $96.15 after crashing almost 9% on Wednesday, as Iran claims tankers hit mines near Hormuz and Ukraine struck Russia's Ryazan refinery; gold extends its post-midterm rally above $4,100 and silver trades around $52.7. Bitcoin is little changed. US economic data slate includes Challenger job cuts (already out: 43,994 in October, down 71.3% y/y), initial jobless claims, Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs (all 8:30am ET). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:50am), Barkin (9:10am) and Logan (7:00pm). The Treasury sells $115bn of 4-week and $110bn of 8-week bills at 11:30am.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Elon Musk-led stocks are set to extend declines after the electric-carmaker and SpaceX lost a combined $130 billion in market value Wednesday following Democrats’ lanslide win. Tesla (TSLA) -2%, Amazon (AMZN) +1.6%, Meta Platforms (META) +1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.2%, Apple (AAPL) +0.7%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.06%, Nvidia (NVDA) -1.3%

Adma Biologics (ADMA) is up 20% after the biotech boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year.
Albemarle (ALB) rises 3% after the lithium producer reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate as energy storage and specialties segments benefited from higher pricing.
AppLovin (APP) is up 19% after the mobile-app marketing company’s third-quarter results beat expectations and it gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus estimate.
Caris Life Sciences (CAI) slumps 14% after providing results and guidance; analysts note a lack of volume upside for the fourth quarter as a key concern.
Cava (CAVA) sinks 8% on concern the company’s momentum is slowing despite the popularity of new dishes such as salmon bowls and barbecue pita chips.
Celsius (CELH) rises 6% after the energy drink’s revenue and adjusted Ebitda for the third quarter handily beat Street estimates.
Dutch Bros (BROS) falls 14% after the coffee chain cut its adjusted Ebitda forecast for the full year.
Expedia (EXPE) is down 6% after the online travel agency provided guidance, with the midpoint of its fourth-quarter gross bookings forecast trailed the average analyst estimate,
Elf Beauty (ELF) climbs 5% after the cosmetics company boosted its net sales forecast for the full year.
Fastly (FSLY) falls 13% after the cloud-platform provider posted quarterly results and provided guidance.
Goodyear Tire (GT) falls 4% after third quarter results disappointed.
LegalZoom (LZ) tumbles 17% after posting third quarter results and a fourth quarter forecast.
Molson Coors (TAP) falls 4% after the company cut its annual guidance for EPS and net sales, citing persistent softer global beer industry trends.
MNTN (MNTN) falls 45% after the advertising and marketing platform posted disappointing third-quarter results and appointed a new CEO.
Nike (NKE) is down 1% after Truist Securities downgrades the stock to sell, saying the company has “risks across the portfolio and an inflated valuation.”
Sezzle (SEZL) climbs 28% after financial technology company posted third quarter results.
Sunrun (RUN) rises 24% after the solar company reported third-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts also note that free cash flow is expected to improve in 2027.
Tapestry (TPR) gains 11% after the accessories company’s first-quarter results topped Wall Street expectations, and management boosted its annual guidance, as well as its capital returns projection.
Veracyte (VCYT) tumbles 31% after the diagnostics company’s full-year revenue forecast fell short of Wall Street estimates.
Wendy’s (WEN) slips 1% after the company rejected the takeover proposal from a Trian Partners-led group.
Zillow (Z) falls 14% after the digital real estate company reported adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the third-quarter that missed the average analyste estimate.

In other corporate news, the AI capex hangover continues to spread: Micron paused work on a $4.5 billion Taiwan chip plant after a labor row, and China blocked the roughly $5.4 billion sale of ABB's robotics unit to SoftBank. Meanwhile the hyperscalers that "won" the election are busy raising cash anyway: Meta raised €9 billion in its first euro bond on a record €53 billion of orders, and Microsoft raised $25 billion in a 10-tranche bond offering. Goldman and Apollo are in talks with investors to start selling portions of a roughly $40 billion chip financing deal for SpaceX, and Apple is cutting employee budgets for AI usage as part of a cost-cutting effort. Wendy's rejected a takeover proposal from a Trian Partners-led group; DTE Energy agreed to sell its DTE Vantage business for about $3 billion; SS&C priced an upsized $1.05 billion of convertible notes.

The global framing is unchanged from yesterday: the midterm-fueled rotation out of the AI trade is entering a second day, with previously unloved markets and economically sensitive stocks outperforming at the expense of chipmakers. Asia took the semi pain overnight, with the Kospi tumbling almost 6% (and triggering a trading halt) as SK Hynix and Samsung slumped, while Hong Kong was the other side of the trade, with the Hang Seng Tech index up more than 5%. Europe, the market with the least AI in it, extended its outperformance with the Stoxx 600 surpassing its August closing record.

“Chip names are under pressure because traders see Democrats as bad news for data centers and thus demand for compute,” said Hao Hong, chief investment officer at Lotus Asset Management. “Some money is rotating into consumer names in Korea, China and elsewhere now.”

As Bloomberg's Jan-Patrick Barnert notes, Wednesday's post-vote bounce was fairly ordinary by historical standards: the Dow jumped 3%, the S&P rose 1.6% and the Nasdaq 100 closed up just 0.9% after rising as much as 2.3%, while semis fell 3.1%, energy lost 4.8% and a Goldman basket of AI data-center names sank 5.4% on a day consumer discretionary stocks gained 6.1% (as we noted yesterday). In other words, a typical bounce in a market that is still rotating, rather than healing.

The options market tells the same story: every broad volatility gauge fell (the VIX by 4.2 points to 16.6), but single-stock volatility eased far less and the Cboe dispersion index did not budge, while implied correlation dropped almost 7 points to below 10. That is what a rotation looks like in the options market.

Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White adds that semis are the sector most exposed to a liquidity-driven flattening of the yield curve, with the 3m-10y curve having flattened over 40 bps since early October, at a time when the sector is still crowded despite nursing a drawdown of 30%. "Post midterm fears of data-centre approvals are the sort of trigger that could cajole the crowd to the exits, just as the yield curve flattening exerts extra pressure," he writes.

Over at JPMorgan, Andrew Tyler's Market Intelligence desk says futures point to a continued rotation / Momentum unwind, with "Semis and Memory sell off" continuing, Mag 7 names mixed and defensives leading ex-AI cyclicals premarket. Equity derivatives specialist Christina Jones cautions that the move "feels more positioning-driven versus a true fundamental rotation", adding that "Conviction is low across the board." JPM positioning strategist Arun Jain notes the post-hyperscaler selloff was the second -6z move in Momentum in a week and the largest single-month underperformance in more than 40 years at -5.8z. Tyler remains Tactically Bullish and expects a Tech rebound, arguing that the Blue Wave "has created another wrinkle" for those waiting to re-risk into AI, and that "it tough to see the bottom ahead of capital markets events occurring, though the setup is increasingly attractive."

JPM's credit research team, looking at the data center fallout, says the market will now pay a premium for capacity that is already built: "we used to pay a premium for IG leases, now we are going to pay a premium for stuff that is already built". They don't expect material changes to 2027 capital plans, but see some impact in 2028 and beyond, flagging Texas (about 27% of the MW of data center capacity funded in the HY project finance market) as the primary focus, and expect weakness in IPPs such as VST, TLN and CEG.

Goldman's desks are saying much the same. Rich Privorotsky writes that "The market bought the election dip… thank heaven for everything that wasn't semi-related", and that "This is rotation, not wholesale liquidation." John Flood's "standout theme on our trading desk right now is buying Hyperscalers vs Selling Semis", while Ismail Abbas sums it up: the "new political backdrop is good for those who own compute (hyperscalers) and bad for those who have to build out, sell into, or power datacenters (neoclouds, semis, power, etc)". GS political economist Alec Phillips expects Democratic state and local wins to bring short-term moratoria on data centres, though "these moratoria will not be long-lived" (more in our note from last night). Flood also points out that since 1952 the S&P has averaged +7.5% through year end after midterms and was higher 6 and 12 months later in all 18 cases.

On the macro side, the collapse in the Iran war risk premium remains the other big story: Brent is down about $18 over the last five days (one of its biggest 5-day declines in recent history per Goldman) after Vice President Vance said "The reason we lost is the war" and Trump said it was "largely true" that Republicans lost because of the war, as we discussed yesterday. Lower oil means lower inflation expectations: the 1yr US inflation swap fell to a two-month low of 2.16% on Wednesday, per DB. In Europe, France braces for a day of strikes and demonstrations over the cost of living as budget talks remain deadlocked, while it sells €12 billion of long-dated bonds in a test of demand.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.5% to 660.5 and hit a fresh record, surpassing its August closing high, as the region extends its outperformance driven by the rotation out of the global AI trade and a strong earnings season. Miners are the best performers while telecoms and defense fall as Rheinmetall and Deutsche Telekom results disappoint; Rheinmetall plunged as much as 18% after cutting its sales outlook, extending the post-midterm defense rout. JPM's desk notes Resources, Construction, Banks and Retail are among the top sectors with Telecom and Staples sold, and Beta and Momentum leading. Here are the biggest European movers:

Air France-KLM shares surged as much as 14% after reporting better than expected third quarter earnings and efficiency measures, notably at its Dutch unit.
Lanxess shares soar as much as 20% after results from the German specialty chemicals maker showed improving free cash flow.
Diageo shares rise as much as 5.2% after the spirits maker’s first-quarter update showed what analysts said was a stronger-than-expected start to the year.
JCDecaux rises as much as 8.5% after a third-quarter report in which revenue and organic growth exceeded expectations.
HelloFresh rises as much as 15% after the food subscription firm reported adjusted Ebitda for the third quarter that beat the Bloomberg consensus estimate.
Yubico surges as much as 33% as DNB Carnegie says the Swedish cybersecurity company delivered “total blowout numbers” in the third quarter.
Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 18% after the German defense firm cut its full-year sales outlook, citing likely delays in the Arminius contract.
Maersk shares fall as much as 12% after analysts flagged a miss on third-quarter earnings and said an uplift in the shipping company’s guidance disappointed investors who were hoping for more.
Deutsche Telekom shares fall as much as 3.4% after the telecom operator projects as much as €2b worth of shares to be bought back next year, a target that analysts say could disappoint investors after already tracking behind a shareholder return goal this year.
Siemens Healthineers drops as much as 4.6% after the German medical technology firm lowered its sales outlook for next year.
Commerzbank shares fall as much as 3.5% after the German bank disappointed investors by lowering its outlook for lending income this year.
Kontron declines as much as 8.9% as Jefferies says the IT services firm had “another underwhelming quarter.”

Asian stocks were split down the middle by the rotation. The Kospi plunged 5.79% to 5,383.80, its biggest drop since Oct. 15, with Samsung down 7.6% and SK Hynix down as much as 10% intraday, and the Taiex fell 3.2% as foreigners dumped Taiwan stocks (the Taiwan dollar slid to its lowest in over a year). Japan's Nikkei fell 1.8% as Ibiden, Kokusai and Murata each dropped more than 15%, while Toyota surged 16.7% after expanding its buyback to ¥1.3 trillion. On the other side, the Hang Seng jumped 3.7% to 24,796.98, its best day since February 2025, with the Hang Seng Tech index up 5.6% (Goldman was pitching China AI last night), while India's Nifty rose 2.5%, Australia's ASX 200 gained 2.6% and Indonesia's JCI added 2.3%. China's CSI 300 rose 0.3%. As Goldman's Jeremiah Khong put it, "the post US midterm rotation accelerated, with investors moving away from AI and semiconductor hardware and towards value, cyclical and domestically oriented markets."

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steadied after the midterms broke the greenback out of one of its tightest ranges in years and sent it to its worst day in two months; DXY trades in a 101.20-101.47 range. EUR/USD pared a 0.4% gain to trade little changed around 1.1235, while GBP/USD erased losses after the BoE hike to trade around $1.3471 (the pound's effective exchange rate earlier hit the highest since 2016). USD/JPY is slightly lower around 158 with the yen getting mild support from lower oil, NOK saw little reaction as Norges Bank held at 4.50% and said it is prepared to hike if needed, and SEK slipped after a cooler CPIF print. In EM, the Philippine peso jumped 1% on the oil slump while Taiwan's central bank sold the most dollars since June.

In rates, Treasuries headed for a second day of gains, with the 10-year yield touching 4.83%, the lowest since Sept. 10, before paring the move to trade around 4.87%; JPM's desk says the curve is twisting flatter, led by the long end. The bid comes from the Democratic sweep fueling expectations that tax and spending plans will be contained, the plunge in oil and the Treasury's refunding hint of less long-end issuance. Gilts rallied as much as 66 ticks into the BoE before paring gains after the 25bps hike, with the UK 10-year now about 1bp higher at 5.14% and money markets pricing a 50% chance of another hike in December. Bunds are also bid, with the 10Y at 3.27%, the lowest since Aug. 28, while French OATs underperform (10Y up 2bps to 4.79%) ahead of strikes and a long-dated bond sale, keeping the OAT-Bund spread around 150bps. Today's US supply is limited to $115bn of 4-week and $110bn of 8-week bills, while South Korea is reportedly weighing large-scale purchases of long-term USTs (Seoul says the report "differs from facts"). Fed speaker focus is on Hammack and Barkin, though Friday's payrolls (consensus 65k) is the week's real test.

Not everyone buys the rally. “I do not think that we’re at the beginning of a 100-basis-point rally in US Treasuries,” said Amy Xie Patrick, head of income strategies at Pendal. Brandywine’s Tracy Chen sees a window instead: “We’re in a honeymoon period of this expectation of gridlock or divided government to rein some of the fiscal spending,” adding “This time window is great for the bond rally. We like the belly of the curve from five-year to seven. That’s the sweet spot.”

In commodities, oil is bouncing after Wednesday's rout: WTI for December gained 0.8% to $88.84 and Brent for January rose 1.6% to $96.15 by 6:25am ET, still down over 18% from last Friday's close. Supply headlines are piling up again: Iran's navy claimed a tanker hit a mine in Hormuz on Thursday morning (the IRGC said two tankers caught fire after hitting mines), UKMTO said a tanker was struck by two projectiles north of Qatar late Wednesday, and Ukraine confirmed a strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery ahead of next week's talks; on the other hand, Iran and Oman's foreign ministers discussed arrangements to secure sea routes, and US crude output hit a record 14mln bpd. US natgas trades around $2.94. Spot gold extends its post-midterm rally above $4,100/oz (range $4,057.84-4,146.99) on lower yields and a weaker dollar, silver is firmer around $52.7, and LME copper is higher in a $13,940-14,136/t range.

US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (est. 196k), continuing claims, and Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs (all 8:30am ET). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:50am), Barkin (9:10am) and Logan (7:00pm). Banxico decides at 2pm; BoC Governor Macklem speaks to the Senate at 10:30am. Notable earnings before the open include ConocoPhillips, Zoetis, Cigna, Duke and Southern; after the close, Airbnb, DraftKings, Cloudflare, Axon and Lumentum.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

Getting data centers built is “going to be harder” after the midterm elections, said Meta Platforms President Dina Powell McCormick—but perhaps not as hard as it now appears. WSJ
Micron Technology Inc. has suspended plans for a memory chip plant in Taiwan due to a labor dispute, throwing into question the fate of a major production base for crucial AI components. BBG
President Trump has conceded that the Iran war cost Republicans dearly in the midterms. Now he must decide whether to cut his losses and reach a deal — or double down and go back to bombing.
House could vote to impeach Hegseth as soon as next week as Republicans turn against the Def. Sec. CNN
Iran’s navy claimed a tanker hit a mine in Hormuz on Thursday morning, IRNA reported; UKMTO separately said a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles 50NM north of Qatar late Wednesday. BBG
Iran and Oman’s foreign ministers discussed arrangements to secure sea routes and measures to keep trade and energy flowing. BBG
After Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea and seized territory commanding the strategic Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint, the kingdom reached out to the group to see what it would take to arrive at a negotiated halt to the hostilities. The answer it got back: $51 billion. WSJ
The oil industry is bracing for Democrats to use their newfound political muscle to push for a deal with Donald Trump to impose a windfall tax on surging crude prices, people familiar said. BBG
BOE Hikes rates as expected, 8-1. BBG
BOE Governor Bailey said the hike is unlikely to be the last unless the Iran war is resolved; Catherine Mann dissented in favor of a 50bps hike, and traders now see a 50% chance of another hike in December. BBG
Gold’s fortunes may be about to turn. Speculators are returning after two months of pullback as the Democratic sweep raises hopes for an end to the Iran war and tempers Fed rate-hike expectations.
China’s considering selling dollar and offshore yuan denominated bonds as early as this month, people familiar said, as Beijing seeks to deepen its presence in international debt markets. BBG
China blocked the sale of ABB’s robotics unit to SoftBank, dealing a blow to the Japanese investment firm’s plans to expand into physical AI. BBG
Ukraine confirmed a strike on Russia’s Ryazan refinery, one of the country’s largest, as it steps up attacks on Russia’s oil industry ahead of trilateral talks next week. BBG
Wendy’s rejected a takeover proposal from a Trian Partners-led group. BBG
DTE Energy agreed to sell its DTE Vantage business for about $3 billion. BBG
Taiwan’s central bank sold the most foreign exchange since June as the Taiwan dollar slid to its lowest in over a year on equity outflows. BBG
South Korea’s Finance Minister said to closely monitor changes in US policies on AI and tariffs, as well as Middle East conflict after the midterm elections, while they will be prepared for the possibility of increased market volatility. Newsquawk
Japan said that US midterm election results will not affect the strength of the bilateral alliance: Kyodo
Democratic state and local wins are likely to lead to short-term data centre moratoria, potentially affecting about 45% of planned US data centre capacity expansion, though GS expects these moratoria will not be long-lived. GIR (Phillips)
JPM credit research: no material changes expected to 2027 data center capital plans, but some impact in 2028 and beyond; Texas, where ~27% of HY project-finance-funded data center MW are being built, is the primary focus. JPM

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after the rally on Wall Street as yields declined and oil slumped in the aftermath of the blue tsunami in the US Midterms, while a rotation out of chip stocks was evident overnight. ASX 200 rallied as gains were led by strength in mining and tech, with gold miners boosted by the surge in the precious metal to above USD 4,100/oz, while energy and financials were at the other end of the spectrum following a slump in oil prices and a drop in NAB's FY profit. Nikkei 225 wiped out its opening gains and more, amid weakness in electronics and tech stocks, while the drop in oil prices ultimately failed to provide a cushion despite Japan's heavy reliance on oil imports. KOSPI underperformed with a sidecar triggered amid a rotation out of semiconductor stocks after the blue wave in the US Congress raised concerns over the AI buildout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the mainland was constrained, while the Hong Kong benchmark surged as hyperscalers and ecommerce stocks benefited from the rotations out of semis.

Top Asian News

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with North Korean delegation in Beijing, while he stated China is ready to advance deeper, practical and positive development of China-North Korea ties and seeks deeper and more constructive relations with North Korea.
Foxconn (2317 TT) Oct (TWD): Revenue 1.31tln (+45% Y/Y).
Sony (6758 JT) H1 2026 (JPY): Operating profit 1.10tln (prev. 768.93bln Y/Y), Revenue 6.27tln (prev. 5.73tln Y/Y); sees FY operating profit at 1.87tln (prev. guidance 1.72tln).
Nintendo (7974 JT) Q2 2026 (JPY): Operating Income 73.9bln (exp. 88.1bln). Total Unit Sales. Switch 2, hardware: 26.35mln. Switch 2, software: 73.21mln.
Toyota (7203 JT) H1 (JPY) net 2.24tln (prev. 1.77tln Y/Y), rev. 26.96tln (prev. 24.63tln Y/Y), raises FY net forecast to JPY 3.57tln from 3.25tln, but cuts FY rev. forecast to 53.5tln from 54.0tln, raises share buyback to JPY 1.3tln. Toyota sees FY global auto sales 10.99mln units vs. prev. forecast of 11.18mln. Will set up a robotics department under Takefumi Shiga.

European equities (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are entirely in the green, continuing to build on the strength seen in the prior session. Gains across major indices vary between 0.2-1.2%; the FTSE MIB lags vs peers, whilst the CAC 40 outperforms. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Basic Resources benefit from the risk tone, and underlying strength in metals prices whilst Energy lags given the recent sell off in oil. Key movers: Evotec (+6.9%, Q3 rev. falls but moves forward with restructuring), ArcelorMittal (+4.9%, tops Q3 estimates), Diageo (+3.0%, organic sales beat and holds guidance), Rheinmetall (-16.3%, cuts 2026 sales outlook and order delays), Deutsche Telekom (-2.1%, decent results and announces share buyback), Commerzbank (-1.9%, rev. missed expectations). Hefty selling across major tech/memory names overnight, saw the KOSPI close with losses in excess of 5%. Heavy constituents such as SK Hynix (-5%) and Samsung (-7.5%) fell, with the pair hit in catch-up play to action seen stateside, amidst growing woes of increased AI regulation following the Democratic sweep; Japan’s Kioxia slumped c. 13%. And whilst the recent sell-off can be attributed to the US midterms, it comes despite a slew of positive demand-related comments from several memory firms; Kioxia recently mentioned that clients are negotiating contracts extending into 2029, whilst Samsung expects tight supply through 2027 and 2028. US equity futures are mixed, with underperformance in the NQ (-0.5%), as the AI/memory sell-off continues into today. ARM Holdings (-3.2%): Reported weaker than expected royalty revenue, partly pressured by memory-related smartphone market weakness, and only modestly upbeat quarterly guidance. Qualcomm (-9.2%): Reported weaker than expected smartphone chip sales, driven by sluggish handset demand, rising memory costs and declining Apple-related revenue, alongside disappointing margin and earnings guidance.

Top European News

Numerous reports of bomb threats on planes across Europe across the European morning, resulting in several diversions and landings, no confirmed bombs/devices on any craft as things stand.
German Chamber of Commerce forecasts German GDP growth of 1% in 2026 (prev. saw 0.3%), and expects 1% growth in 2027.
UK Chancellor Healey pledged to overhaul public spending controls and vowed that new rules to ringfence “preventative” programmes would save money in the future, according to FT.

DXY is flat within a 101.20-101.47 range, having pared its overnight post-midterm losses. Modest upside was seen in early European trade as T-note futures waned slightly from their best levels, while crude rose more than USD 1/bbl in the space of 15 minutes this morning despite a lack of headlines. The index sits above its 50DMA at 101.02, but remains beneath its 21DMA at 101.96.
EUR/USD is flat/firmer within a 1.1223-1.1268 range. German Factory Orders came in slightly below expectations at 4.4% M/M (exp. 4.8%), while French Industrial Production unexpectedly contracted 0.5% M/M (exp. +0.3%). No reaction was seen to the data with the USD the main driver of the day.
GBP/USD is flat/subdued within a 1.3459-1.3501 range, having failed to sustain a move above 1.3500 ahead of the BoE, where a 25bps hike to 4.00% is expected, with the vote split on watch as always (full Newsquawk preview available). The pair holds above its 50, 100 and 200 DMAs (1.3364, 1.3390 and 1.3420). Yesterday's high printed at 1.3503. UK Construction PMI disappointed at 43.6 (exp. 46.1). EUR/GBP trades within a 0.8327-0.8349 range, beneath its 21DMA at 0.8393.
USD/JPY is lower within a 157.78-158.43 range, with the yen getting mild tailwinds from lower oil prices. The pair is capped by its 200DMA at 158.63. Japanese PM Takaichi said she will continue to cooperate with Trump to strengthen US-Japan ties.
Antipodeans are mixed: NZD/USD outperforms within a 0.5615-0.5658 range, around its 21DMA at 0.5638, while AUD/USD is little changed within a 0.7000-0.7025 range, despite a much wider-than-expected Australian trade surplus.
NOK saw little reaction as Norges Bank held at 4.50%, as expected, reiterating that "it will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and we are prepared to raise the policy rate if needed". SEK saw modest pressure after Swedish CPIF came in cooler at 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.4%).

Central Banks

White House delays hearing on Fed Governor Cook to December 14th, according to New York Times.
BoJ September meeting Minutes stated members agreed it was appropriate that the bank continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.
ECB's Moulin said elevated yields present a fresh challenge for the financial sector.
ECB's Schnabel summarises her history at the ECB. Takeaway one: preserve room for manoeuvre by avoiding commitments. Takeaway two: what matters is how shocks affect the inflation outlook. Takeaway three: protect monetary dominance. Takeaway four: implement monetary policy efficiently.
RBA's Hauser said some people's confidence in policy delivery, particularly on inflation, has fallen; adds that monetary policy works with lag, pain often precedes gain. Last meeting had a lively discussion.
Norges Bank maintains its Key Policy Rate at 4.50%, as expected; " It will likely be necessary to keep the policy rate elevated for a time, and we are prepared to raise the policy rate if needed".
SNB Chairman Schlegel said the central bank would intervene if price stability were at risk; there have not yet been any significant second-round effects.
SNB Chairman Schlegel said inflation in Switzerland has risen and October reading was higher than expected, with the central bank to watch the situation closely, particularly for second round inflationary effects.
BCB holds rates at 13.75% as expected; decision unanimous.
PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7156 vs exp. 6.6783 (prev. 6.7180).

Fixed Income

A bullish session for fixed income, as the energy pull back and the AI/tech sell off lead to a reassessment of inflation and growth views for the near term, and by extension are causing market pricing for interest rates to pare.
This is perhaps most evident in the UK, with Gilts higher by some 66 ticks at best, hitting 87.35 with the 10yr yield now at its lowest since early-September and just under 5.1%, vs a 5.53% recent peak. Action that is slightly less pronounced at the short-end, given the long-end has also benefited from the DMO pivoting further away from that area of the curve and the general global shift on that as well; for example, the 20yr yield is at its lowest since early-July, and some 50bps off the 6% October peak.
For the UK, today’s main event is the BoE. The first hike of the Middle East cycle is expected, though likely subject to 7-2 dissent but with 6-3 a possibility and Breeden the one to watch for that. Further, while tightening today, the hike may have a dovish feel vs market pricing now of c. 75bps of tightening, against the recent +100bps peak, given the WTD energy moves and the pushback Governor Bailey has previously given to pricing, and as even the hawks (e.g. Pill) have described it as excessive.
Elsewhere, USTs are bid by a couple of ticks, but off the 107-07 overnight peak. Focus for the US is on today’s data, Friday’s payrolls and then developments around/during the weekend in the Middle East. Updates on that a little light in recent trade, as the midterms continue to be digested; but, pressure around War Secretary Hegseth remains.
Bunds also bid, with the themes very much the same. No move to ECB’s Schnabel this morning, with her speech looking back on her time at the ECB, as December is her final meeting. Currently, above 123.00 with gains of 30 ticks, but around 10 off the session high. Supply features, and the French outing is in focus as an appetite test after the recent sovereign adjustments, and into a weekend of more planned domestic protests. Currently, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is around 148bps, and a touch narrower on the session.
South Korea is planning a "large scale" acquisition of US Treasuries, Korea Economic Daily reported citing sources.
Spain sold EUR 5.466bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.10% 2031, 3.40% 2036, 3.50% 2041 Bono.
Japan sold JPY 1.97tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.21x (prev. 3.76x), average yield 2.768% (prev. 3.101%).
Meta Platforms (META) files pricing term sheet for up to EUR 9bln senior notes in six tranches.
Microsoft (MSFT) raises USD 25bln in a 10-tranche bond offering.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks are steadier after Wednesday's slump of more than 8%, which came as the Democratic sweep reduced the likelihood of an extended US/Iran war. Prices rose over USD 1/bbl for Brent in early European trade despite a lack of fresh headline catalysts. Since then, UKMTO reported a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles 50NM north of Qatar's Madinat ash Shamal late yesterday. On diplomacy, Iran's Foreign Minister and the Sultanate of Oman discussed regional developments and political efforts to achieve peace and stability in the region in a telephone call. Note, there is a wider spread between WTI Dec and Brent Jan quotes, potentially as US crude production hit a new record of 14mln bpd in yesterday's EIA data.
WTI Dec'26 trades firmer within a USD 86.65-88.54/bbl range, while Brent Jan'27 is also stronger within USD 93.44-95.91/bbl. Dutch TTF is slightly lower but well off worst levels, tracking the price action in crude oil counterparts.
Spot gold extends its post-midterm rally above USD 4,100/oz, within a USD 4,057.84-4,146.99/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 3,919.93-4,070.53/oz range), amid softer yields and the weaker overnight dollar and potentially some geopolitical hedging. It has reclaimed its 21DMA at USD 4,078/oz, with the 50 and 100DMAs (USD 4,206/oz and USD 4,203/oz) the next upside levels. Spot silver is firmer within a USD 52.21-53.48/oz range (vs yesterday's USD 48.97-52.46/oz range), while platinum and palladium futures are also higher.
3M LME copper is firmer within a USD 13,940.08-14,136.18/t range, with demand subdued alongside the mixed risk appetite in Asia, potentially as the AI/memory sell-off continued after the Democratic sweep. The KOSPI closed more than 5% lower, with Samsung and SK Hynix hit.

Trade/Tariffs

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said she will continue to cooperate with US President Trump to strengthen US-Japan ties.
China's MOFCOM to maintain anti-dumping duties on US-origin n-propanol imports for five years from November 6th.
Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said at CIIE that China's overall tariff has been reduced to 7.3% and that China will import more fine products and services.

Geopolitics: Iran

Iran and Oman Foreign Ministers discussed arrangements to secure sea routes.
Iran's IRGC Ground Forces Commander declares a full readiness to respond decisively to any hostile action, Sepah News reported.
Iran Foreign Minister and the Sultanate of Oman discuss regional developments and political efforts to achieve peace and stability in the region in a telephone call, Al Alam reported.
UKMTO reported a tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles 50NM north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, on November 4 at 23:20 UTC.
IRGC announced that two oil tankers suffered fires after hitting mines last night as they attempted to pass through the 'illegal' passage south of the Strait of Hormuz. A tugboat that approached the supertanker to fight the fire also caught fire. It seized two drones after intercepting them. Affirms that it maintains control of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russian President Putin may hold international talks today; Peskov adds diesel shipped under a deal with the US will find buyers, TASS reported.
Ukraine confirmed a strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery.
Russia strikes logistics centre in Ukraine's Kharkiv region and a power plant in Dnipropetrovsk region, according to the Russian Defence Ministry.
Explosion reported in oil refinery in Russia's Ryazan after it was attacked by Ukrainian drones, according to IRIB.
Multiple Ukrainian drone attacks target industrial zone of Russia's Ryazan oil refinery.

Geopolitics: Other

Israel conducts artillery shelling on areas in southern Lebanon, according to SNN.
Top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee called for probes into the Iran war and US military strikes in the Caribbean and Latin America, according to WSJ.
Yemeni armed forces announced a series of successful military operations against Saudi military targets, causing significant damage, according to Press TV.
Yemeni missile attacks reportedly target Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, Fars News reported citing Arab sources.
Saudi Civil Defense noted an early warning activated in Sharurah.
Israeli forces reportedly raid Nablus in the West Bank, according to Al Alam.
North Korea said the EU should mind its own business instead of criticising North Korea human rights issues, according to KCNA.
South Korea's Defence Ministry reported suspected multiple missile launches by North Korea.
South Korea's Cheonghae Navy unit will expand operations into sea near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Yonhap.
North Korea test-fired a newly designed advanced air-defence missile system, KCNA reported.

Crypto

South Korea plans to delay the introduction of digital asset taxes by two years to 2029, according to the Finance Ministry.

US Event Calendar

5:30am: Oct. Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -19.9% (actual: -71.3%; 43,994 cuts)
8:30am: Oct. 31 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 196k, prior 194k
8:30am: Oct. 24 Continuing Claims, est. 1710k, prior 1701k
8:30am: Oct. 31 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg, prior 196.75k
8:30am: 3Q P Nonfarm Productivity, est. 2.7%, prior 1.4%
8:30am: 3Q P Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.4%, prior 1.2%
10:30am: EIA weekly natural gas storage
11:30am: US to sell USD115 Bln 4-Week Bills
11:30am: US to sell USD110 Bln 8-Week Bills

Central Bank Speakers

8:50am: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Panel in Zurich
9:10am: Fed’s Barkin in Moderated Conversation
7:00pm: Fed’s Logan Moderates Discussion

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In virtually every US election, there is usually some reason why markets are concerned going into it, which then magically fades afterwards. The 2026 midterms seem no different, as yesterday the S&P 500 (+1.58%) posted its best day in three months, whilst bond yields fell sharply around the world. This was mainly driven by relief that the political uncertainty was over, but we also saw concerns ease across the whole range of risk factors that have dominated recent weeks. For instance, Brent crude oil prices (-8.67%) closed beneath $100/bbl for the first time since September, significantly dampening fears over inflation. Similarly, the Franco-German 10yr spread (-11.8bps) tightened sharply, which led to a bit more optimism on Europe. And we even saw a decent rebound in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ (+1.44%) recovering despite fears 24 hours earlier that tech might see a fresh slump.

However as we'll see below some parts of the tech space traded poorly yesterday amid uncertainty as to what the election result will mean for regulation of things such as data centers. This uncertainty has accelerated overnight with Nasdaq futures back down -1.18% and the KOSPI -5.68% lower dragged down by SK hynix (-9.60%) and Samsung (-7.57%). The Korean index triggered a 5 minute trading halt just before I finished typing this.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Nikkei (-1.24%) is also under pressure, as chipmakers and AI-related stocks extended the previous session's declines. In contrast, Chinese equities are outperforming the region in what is developing into a big global rotation over the last 24 hours. The Hang Seng (+3.09%) is benefiting, after also being helped by Beijing unveiling fresh support measures that boosted sentiment toward domestic semiconductor companies. Meanwhile, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (+2.61%) is also trading significantly higher. S&P 500 futures are down -0.28% so holding on to most of yesterday's gains so far with Stoxx futures (+0.11%) just about maintaining its big boost from yesterday.

This has capped off a remarkable 24 hours for financial markets, with huge moves as investors reacted to the midterm elections. Just to bring you up to speed, it was apparent pretty soon after the counting began that the Democrats were on course to control both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the new Congress, with stronger-than-expected margins in both. Indeed, we’ve already started to see the political consequences, with widespread reports that Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson will step down from leading the House Republicans next year. Meanwhile, CBS reported that Trump had asked advisers if Defense Secretary Hegseth should go. He has been at the hawkish end on the war with Iran, and much of the rally yesterday was linked to a reappraisal of the likelihood of imminent strikes on Iran in light of the election result.

When it came to the market reaction, there was relief among investors that the results weren’t disputed, which helped to reduce political uncertainty. Moreover, the prospect of divided government also eased concerns about the fiscal trajectory, given it’ll now be more difficult to pass tax cuts or spending packages. That helped to bring down Treasury yields, which in turn offered further support to risk assets. In terms of the outcome, it was already expected in polls and prediction markets that the Democrats would win at least one chamber, whilst it was always known that Trump would retain his veto power as well. We did also see a narrative emerge that the scale of the Democratic Party’s win would reduce the leverage of its leftist wing over policy. But when it comes to the headline result, it’s not too different from investor expectations beforehand, even if the scale of the Democratic victory was bigger than expected. In many respects, the overall rally fits into the classic midterm pattern we’ve previously highlighted. After all, in 20 out of 20 midterm elections since WWII, the S&P 500 has been higher one year later. And as I pointed out in my CoTD yesterday, the Republican losses in the House were basically on the historical trendline for what would be expected given President Trump’s approval rating. So it was a very normal election with a very normal market reaction before and after the vote, despite fears that this time would be different.

Nevertheless, there were several equity segments where we did see a specific midterm reaction. For example, Trump Media & Technology Group (-24.54%) had its worst daily performance since 2024. Moreover, some of the most AI-exposed stocks struggled, with CoreWeave (-9.90%) and the Philly semiconductor index (-3.13%) also losing ground. Another underperformer was defence stocks, with the Aerospace & Defense subcomponent of the S&P 500 down -1.25%. But while chips stocks struggled, the Mag-7 (+2.24%) outperformed, led by outsized gains for Microsoft (+6.68%), Amazon (+6.12%) and Apple (+5.31%), with the latter reaching a new all-time high. So sizeable differentiation playing out in the tech space.

The general optimism helped the S&P 500 (+1.58%) to its best day since August, with the gains led by the more cyclical sectors. And the moves received a further boost from another batch of strong US data. For instance, the ADP report on private payrolls showed a +86k increase in October (vs. +67k expected), which added to the optimism before tomorrow’s jobs report. Meanwhile, the ISM services index also came in broadly around consensus at 54.5 in October (vs. 54.8 expected), though encouragingly its prices paid index saw an unexpected decline (73.0 vs 74.0 prev, 74.6 exp.).

Otherwise, markets also got a tailwind from another sharp decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-8.67%) plummeting again to $94.62/bl. That helped to ease concerns about inflation and saw investors dial back the chance of rapid rate hikes. In part, that followed comments from Vice President JD Vance on X that “The reason we lost is the war”, which implicitly pointed away from a further escalation. And in turn, that led to a huge decline in inflation expectations, with the Euro 1yr inflation swap (-25.9bps) down to a two-month low of 3.10%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (-24.9bps) hit a two-month low of 2.16%.

That backdrop led to a big rally for sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-4.9bps) down to 4.58%, whilst the 10yr yield (-7.6bps) fell to 4.89%. They are another -4.3bps lower this morning. And in Europe there were even sharper moves given the continent’s exposure to energy prices. Yields on 10yr bunds (-5.8bps) fell to 3.27%, whilst 10yr OATs (-17.6bps) saw their biggest daily decline since April, falling to 4.77%. That also pushed the Franco-German 10yr spread down by -11.8bps to 150bps, marking its tightest level in the last couple of weeks. And it wasn’t just European bonds that outperformed, as European equities also put in a very strong day. In fact, the STOXX 600 (+1.82%) had its best day since June and the DAX (+2.22%) had its best day since April. European banks (+4.62%) also had their best day since April. So crudely a big rotation from data centres to everything else across the globe.

Looking forward, one of the main highlights today will be the Bank of England’s latest decision at 12:00 London time. They’re widely expected to deliver their first rate hike since 2023, with a 25bp move that takes their policy rate up to 4%. In their preview, our UK economists expect there to be a 6-3 vote tally in favour of a hike, and they think the big changes will come in the form of the BoE’s updated forecasts. Their view is that the Bank will show peak CPI nearer 4.25% in Q1 2027, although they also expect an upgrade to the 2026 growth forecast to 1.4%. For more information, see their full preview here.

There wasn’t much other data yesterday, although we did get the Euro Area flash CPI print for October. That came in as expected by the consensus, with headline inflation up to a 3-year high of +4.0% in October, whilst core inflation remained at +2.5%. Otherwise, the US trade deficit was a bit smaller than expected in September, at $105bn (vs. $107.9bn expected).

Earlier this morning, data showed Australia's seasonally adjusted trade surplus surged to A$2.83bn in September from A$184mn in August, comfortably exceeding economists' expectations of A$940mn and marking the highest surplus in seven months.

In central bank news, minutes from the BOJ's September meeting reinforced the case for further policy tightening. Policymakers generally agreed that interest rates should continue to rise, with one member highlighting the possibility of a faster pace of hikes. Another noted that while there was no need for immediate action, the BOJ should continue to calibrate policy carefully to prevent excessive and persistent inflationary pressures.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ll get the Bank of England’s latest policy decision, and hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Cipollone, Moulin, Schnabel, Zigman, Lane, Nagel and Dolenc, and the Fed’s Hammack and Barkin. Otherwise, data releases from Europe include German factory orders and Euro Area PPI for September, along with the October construction PMIs from Germany and the UK. In the US, we’ll also get the weekly initial jobless claims, and nonfarm productivity for Q3.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 08:20

Brent On Track For Worst Week Since COVID, But UBS Warns Bears: "Fundamentals Still Provide A Floor"

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 13:10:00 +0000

Brent On Track For Worst Week Since COVID, But UBS Warns Bears: "Fundamentals Still Provide A Floor"

Brent crude futures are on track for their largest weekly decline since the week ending April 24, 2020, during the early COVID-19 pandemic era, on the prospect that a Democratic sweep could end the US-Iran conflict.

UBS energy expert Dominic Ellis wrote in a note earlier that the collapse in crude's war risk premium reflects the prospects for peace and the potential for the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen. But those hopes are colliding with the harsh reality that replenishing depleted global oil stockpiles could take considerable time.

Brent's $20 plunge over the last several days reflects a massive unwinding of the war risk premium rather than a meaningful improvement in supply and demand, Ellis said. He estimates that another $10 to $15 of premium remains embedded in crude near $95, leaving more room for downside if further diplomatic signals emerge from the Gulf.

Ellis explained:

The more than $20 decline in Brent over the last week reflects bearish sentiment and a rapid unwind of the geopolitical risk premium in the price rather than a change in supply/demand fundamentals. I'd guess there is still $10-15 of risk premium reflected in the current $95 level, and while there is risk of an ongoing unwind if the Iran-US narrative continues to trend towards de-escalation, it is worth reflecting on what has really changed.
Senior figures in the Republican party, including vice president Vance, are openly acknowledging the role that the Middle East conflict played in the Blue sweep on Tuesday, and even President Trump has admitted that the war may have had an impact on the outcome of the elections.
But while Trump has recently downplayed the potential for new strikes on Iran, it isn't yet clear the US is ready either to make the major concessions likely needed to move the diplomatic process forward or to declare "job done" and walk away from the conflict, essentially leaving Iran with a Pyrrhic victory but a victory nonetheless. It is hard to have conviction in opaque political process, but it is clear that the market has over the last 7 months been too eager to price in de-escalation ahead of supporting evidence, and I fear the same thing may be happening now.

However, Ellis pointed out that the conflict has drained nearly 700 million barrels from global inventories, as fundamentals still point to a severe global energy crisis that won't dissipate anytime soon.

He said:

Even in the event that I am wrong and this is the dawn of a new era of diplomatic outreach, a new Iran deal and a clear path back towards the normalization of energy exports, the near 700 mn drawdown in global inventories as a result of the conflict so far and the at least 40-50mb ongoing monthly inventory draw if the conflict continues will drive incremental demand that keeps a floor on oil for the next 18-24 months.

The takeaway is that further peace headlines and a possible resolution could push oil prices lower, but the reality is that stockpiles around the world need to be replenished, which should eventually put a floor under prices.

For instance, US distillate stockpiles fell below 100 million barrels for the first time since 2003.

It's great news that US diesel prices hit two-month lows on Wednesday, but traders will have to reckon with depleted inventories (read here).

Our market technicians at The Market Ear have provided readers with a full breakdown of crude in a note titled "The Oil Massacre" ...

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 08:10

Epstein-Linked Billionaire Just Sued The Congressman About To Run The Oversight Committee

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 12:45:00 +0000

Epstein-Linked Billionaire Just Sued The Congressman About To Run The Oversight Committee

Billionaire Leon Black filed a federal defamation suit Wednesday against Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA), the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, accusing him of lying about Black's ties to Jeffrey Epstein. The complaint, filed in the Southern District of New York, seeks $7.25 million in compensatory and punitive damages and a jury trial, and alleges Garcia "has knowingly and willfully lied about Leon Black and defamed him," NBC News reported.

Black undoubtedly had this ready to go after midterms - as following Tuesday's blue tsunami, Democrats will take control of the House in January, and Garcia is expected to become Oversight chairman. This would put him in charge of the committee that has already subpoenaed Black and voted to hold him in contempt.

According to the suit, Garcia said in a television interview weeks after Black's June voluntary interview with the committee that Black "is at the center of Jeffrey Epstein's crimes" and was "one of the last people to actually interact" with Epstein before his death in prison. The complaint also cites Garcia saying he had spoken with survivors who named Black as involved in direct abuse of women. Black's lawyers say the statements were false and malicious, and that they caused "real and significant ongoing harm": threats to his physical safety, a stream of hateful calls, emails and posts, and damage to his business and philanthropic work.

Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., speaks during a Congressional spotlight hearing on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026, in Washington.

A Black spokesperson said he has never abused a woman, has never been with an underage woman, has never been involved in sex trafficking and never paid Epstein for women.

The suit is the second Black has filed over the Epstein case. In early September he defied the committee's subpoena and sued the panel and its Republican chairman, Rep. James Comer, calling the probe a "public fishing expedition." Garcia answered that day that Black had "funded Epstein's abuse and trafficking of women" and that "multiple women have also accused Black of sexual assault." Black had left his June interview before it finished, then skipped a later deposition. The committee voted unanimously in September to hold him in contempt, and the full House followed. The Justice Department said on Sept. 16 that the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia "will review the referral of Mr. Black carefully." No charges have been filed against Black.

Jeffrey Epstein, left, sugar magnate Pepe Fanjul and Leon Black at a New York movie screening in 2005. Joe Schildhorn/Patrick McMullan/Getty Images

The money is the center of the dispute. Lawmakers allege Black paid Epstein $180 million. An Apollo-commissioned review in 2021 found $158 million in payments from 2012 to 2017, which it said were for tax, estate planning and related services. Black, who co-founded Apollo Global Management, stepped down as its CEO in 2021 after that review; it found he was not involved in Epstein's criminal activities, and he has denied wrongdoing.

Black has been on the defensive in court for years. A New York appeals court ruled for him, 4-1, in a defamation case brought by a former model who accused him of rape, and he still faces a Manhattan lawsuit from a woman who says he raped her in Epstein's mansion in 2002, when she was 16. Those are her allegations.

With the suit, the fight over Black and the Epstein files will go before a judge before Garcia ever gets the gavel.

We're sure Garcia could have some fun with Les Wexner?

🚨 Les Wexner just CONFIRMED that Epstein worked for the ROTHSCHILD FAMILY—the architects of the Federal Reserve—as well as Jeff Bezos & Google.

His lawyer then leaned in and said: "I will f*cking kiII you if you answer another question with more than 5 words."

Umm WHAT?!? 😳😬 pic.twitter.com/UelCWjybhW
— The Conservative Alternative (@OldeWorldOrder) February 19, 2026

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 07:45

Rheinmetall Crashes Most In Months After Guidance Cut (Again) On Military Ramp-Up Risk

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 12:20:00 +0000

Rheinmetall Crashes Most In Months After Guidance Cut (Again) On Military Ramp-Up Risk

Rheinmetall AG shares plunged the most since late June in European trading after the German defense manufacturer slashed its annual sales forecast for the second time in months. Berenberg analysts pointed out that "Weapon & Ammunition drives most of the guidance cut."

The company, which makes tanks and armored vehicles, artillery, ammunition, air-defense systems and military electronics, now expects 2026 revenue of about $14.8 billion, down from its previous forecast of $15.37 billion to $15.93 billion. The operating margin forecast was also pared down to 18.5% from 19%. A guidance cut in August followed Germany's cancellation of orders for six F126 frigates.

Berenberg defense analyst George McWhirter provided a first-take analysis of the earnings release: em>Weapon & Ammunition drives most of the guidance cut: Rheinmetall's Q3 release this morning provides more detail following the Q3 pre-release and full-year guidance downgrade yesterday evening. Weapon & Ammunition drives most of the cut to the full-year guidance, with the remainder attributed to Vehicle Systems. There is no updated order intake guidance provided. The downgrade highlights the execution and order intake risk, stemming from the significant ramp-up in defence programmes to 2030, which poses a risk to medium-term estimates, in our view. Key details to look out for on the conference call at 1pm UK time (2pm CET) include the company's updated estimate on the timing and size of the Arminius contract award, as well as the company's Q4 order intake expectations. We expect the shares to underperform.

VS and W&A weaker in Q3: Q3 revenue increased by 32% to €3,149m, 3.2% below Vara consensus; the miss was driven by Vehicle Systems (VS) and Weapons & Ammunition (W&A). VS revenue increased 9.6% yoy to €1,467m (5.3% below consensus), and W&A revenue increased 37.3% yoy to €949m (5.1% behind consensus). This weakness was offset by beats in other divisions; Air Defence (AD) revenue grew 64.9% to €254m (6.6% ahead of consensus), Digital Systems (DS) grew 38.7% to €509m (3.1% ahead of consensus) and Naval Systems (NS) revenue of €345m was 13.7% ahead of consensus.
Air Defence drives Q3 EBIT beat: Q3 operating profit increased 53.6% to €553m (4.1% above consensus), equating to a margin of 17.5% (up by 270bp yoy). VS and W&A were weaker again; VS rose 13.7% to €191m (2.4% below consensus), while W&A grew 35.6% to €217m (11.4% below consensus). Basic EPS pre-PPA from continuing operations increased by 62.1% yoy to €6.42, -7.2% below consensus. Operating FCF was -€82m (consensus: €123m), reflecting continued build-up of inventories and investment. Rheinmetall Nomination fell by 25% yoy to €2,893m. The total order backlog, including framework contracts, fell sequentially to €78.0bn versus €80.5bn at H1.
Lowered FY 2026 EBIT guidance 8% below consensus: Full-year guidance was lowered yesterday evening. The revenue guidance was lowered by 5% at the mid-point to €13.2bn (5% below consensus). The majority of the cut stems from W&A (€500m cut at the mid-point). The VS revenue guidance has also been lowered by €100m at the mid-point. The operating margin guidance has also been lowered to 18.5% from 19.0%, implying operating profit of €2,442m (8% below consensus). The driver is a c1ppt cut to the W&A operating profit margin guidance to 28-29%, and guidance for a c12% margin in VS (previously: 12-13%). Positive FCF is still expected for the year (consensus: €2,236m), but the previous guidance of >40% cash conversion has not been reiterated. The updated full-year guidance implies 25% growth yoy in Q4 revenue to c€4,824m, and 5% growth yoy in operating profit to €1,103m, equating to a Q4 operating profit margin of 22.9% (-410bp yoy). The updated FCF guidance implies an inflow of above c€1.7bn in Q4 to reach positive territory, versus c€2,008m in Q4 2025.

The second outlook cut in months briefly triggered a trading halt in Frankfurt. Shares plunged more than 18%, pushing the stock to a 52-week low. Much of the blame for the earnings cut centered on delays in its Boxer armored vehicle program.

In Europe and the US, defense stocks tracked by Goldman were hammered on Wednesday after the Democratic Party's sweep in the US midterms raised concerns that a rearmament supercycle could be derailed.

According to Bloomberg data, 24 analysts are "Buy" rated on the stock, while 5 hold "Neutral" ratings, and zero sell.

The Goldman US Defense index has slumped toward 2026 lows amid fears that Democrats will slash the military budget next year.

... and how will the West meet the massive surge in demand for arms driven by Ukraine and US demands if Democrats are expected to slash budgets?

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 07:20

'Digital ID Checks For All': Ofcom's Plan For UK's Under-16 Social Media Ban Puts Adults In The Age-Check Line Too

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 11:55:00 +0000

'Digital ID Checks For All': Ofcom's Plan For UK's Under-16 Social Media Ban Puts Adults In The Age-Check Line Too

Privacy campaigners have argued for months that this is where an age ban ends up. In March, Big Brother Watch titled a post "A social media ban for under-16s = digital ID checks for all" and argued that because the alternatives are intrusive and unreliable, ID would be required in many millions of cases. "All of the online age verification options are highly invasive and the biometric and behavioural profiling options are highly inaccurate, meaning IDs will be required in many millions of cases regardless," the group wrote.

Britain's communications regulator now points the same way. Ofcom's rapid assessment, published Oct. 29, says the face scans social media platforms use to estimate ages are too imprecise to police the government's coming ban for under-16s on their own, and that a second check, often photo ID, will have to back them up. And the checks won't stop at teenagers: many adults with existing accounts will be asked to prove their age as well.

Ofcom named four methods it considers capable of being highly effective at 16, Digit reported: photo ID matching, banking information, digital identity services and facial age estimation. Photo ID matching compares the photo on a passport or driving licence with a live image of the user. A bank check uses age data the bank holds, with the user's consent. A digital ID service lets a person prove their age once with photo ID and reuse it.

The face scan is the weak link. Ofcom says some of the technologies have a margin of error of a few years at 16, so it wants platforms to take a "challenge age" approach, Advanced Television reported, modeled on the "Challenge 25" rule shops use for alcohol. Anyone the software can't place clearly on the right side of the line gets a second, verified check.

That second check is where documents come in. Ofcom estimates that about 94% of people in the UK aged 16 and over hold a passport or driving licence. Around 150,000 16- and 17-year-olds hold neither, and the regulator says those teenagers would likely need to obtain one. About 90% of 16- and 17-year-olds have a bank account, which Ofcom treats as another route.

Adults are not exempt. A platform that already holds accurate, reliable age data on an existing account may skip the check, but many adults will still be asked to prove their age using the wider set of 18-plus methods in Ofcom's existing guidance. Ofcom ruled out the lighter-touch options - credit-card checks, mobile-network checks, email-based estimation and verifiable parental consent - at 16, Reed Smith noted, and said behavioral age inference can help catch under-16s who slip through but cannot serve as the gate.

Big Brother Watch answered the assessment the day it came out. "This plan for a government 'social media ban' is a national ID system by the back door," the group posted on X, adding that "both the government and Ofcom have admitted that children will get around the ban." "The plan will kill anonymity online," it said, Cybernews reported.

🚨BREAKING: All Britons may need ID to use social media, the UK's online safety regulator today announces

"This plan for a government 'social media ban' is a national ID system by the back door.

Both the government and Ofcom have admitted that children will get around the ban,... pic.twitter.com/QdweEJdK0n
— Big Brother Watch (@BigBrotherWatch) October 29, 2026

Security researchers warn the documents themselves become the target. "Photo ID matching brings highly sensitive documents and facial images into the process, potentially creating another attractive target for criminals," Pieter Arntz, a senior malware intelligence analyst at Malwarebytes, told TechRadar. "The risks aren't hypothetical: as I reported last year, a breach at a third-party support provider for Discord exposed government ID images belonging to around 70,000 users." His conclusion: "Proving you are old enough should not mean revealing who you are."

Even the UK's data regulator is hedging. Katie Searle, the Information Commissioner's Office director of children's strategy, said age assurance "must be implemented in a way that keeps people's personal information safe and allows them to exercise their information rights."

And for all that, the ban may not keep teenagers off. Ofcom Chief Executive Dame Melanie Dawes said, "This ban will shape the future of children's lives online, so it's important to get it right," but she also said motivated children will seek to bypass the restrictions, comparing the ban to alcohol laws that cannot stop underage drinking completely. Australia's ban took effect Dec. 10, 2025, and the country's eSafety regulator found more than eight in ten Australian teenagers still using social media three months later, Reuters reported in August.

The government's own June announcement did not say what the checks would be, and left that to Ofcom. When it announced the ban on June 15, it named Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and X among the platforms in scope and promised regulations before Christmas, with restrictions expected in spring 2027. The Technology Secretary's letter to Ofcom that day asked it to consider how checks could avoid excluding users who lack passports or driving licences.

The ID push around the ban has been building. As we reported, the under-16 proposal arrived alongside a wider online ID drive, Apple's iOS 26.4 update already asks UK users to prove they are adults with a credit card or ID scan, and an Epoch Times analysis we ran argued a minors' ban requires data from everyone. Ofcom's assessment is the first official look at what that means in practice: a face scan that may not hold up, then a passport, a bank check or a digital ID - for teenagers and adults alike.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 06:55

After Mamdani, Los Angeles Is Next: Socialist Nithya Raman Projected To Oust Karen Bass

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 11:30:00 +0000

After Mamdani, Los Angeles Is Next: Socialist Nithya Raman Projected To Oust Karen Bass

On a night Democrats swept the midterms, Los Angeles moved further left than anyone in the party establishment wanted. Decision Desk HQ projected Wednesday evening that City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, has unseated Mayor Karen Bass, which would make her the first socialist elected mayor of the nation's second-largest city.

Decision Desk HQ projects Nithya Raman wins the CA Los Angeles Mayor Nonpartisan General Election#DecisionMade: 7:49 PM EST

Follow live results here: https://t.co/1kpbRZUYUv pic.twitter.com/LHwjhhfjjz
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 5, 2026

In the county registrar's Wednesday afternoon update, Raman led 405,193 votes (51.7%) to 379,069 (48.3%), a margin of 26,124, according to NBC Los Angeles. Every update since the polls closed has moved her way. Bass led by about 10,600 votes at 9 p.m. Tuesday; by the 3:11 a.m. count Raman was ahead by 16,594.

It isn't final. The Associated Press has not called the race, and with roughly two-thirds of the expected vote counted, about 842,000 ballots remain to be tallied countywide, most of them by mail. Bass has not conceded; her campaign declined to comment Wednesday. The registrar will post updates daily through Nov. 13, and the county certifies by Nov. 27.

Raman claimed the mood of the night from a stage outside the Greek Theatre on Tuesday. "Today all across America, voters demanded change," she said. "For too long our broken and unjust status quo has convinced Angelenos that this is the best that we can do."

Nithya Raman takes the stage outside the Greek Theatre, saying, "I'm hopeful. I'm very hopeful. But I'm also very superstitious so we're going to stay cool." pic.twitter.com/hXIbNVSD3c
— Louis Keene (@thislouis) November 4, 2026

Bass, at her own party at the Loews Hollywood Hotel, told supporters, "This is the Los Angeles that I will never stop fighting for."

From Ally To Challenger

Raman won her Council District 4 seat in 2020 by unseating incumbent David Ryu. She had endorsed Bass for reelection, then filed to run against her on Feb. 7, hours before the deadline.

"I love this city so much and I think it needs a fighter," she said at the time, according to Fox News.

Her path to the runoff ran through Spencer Pratt. In the June 2 primary Bass finished first with 34.3%, and Pratt, the Republican former star of The Hills, held second on election night before late ballots pushed Raman past him, as we reported at the time. She finished with 29.0% to his 25.5%.

Her ties to the DSA have not been smooth. Its Los Angeles chapter endorsed her in 2020, censured her in 2024 over her acceptance of an endorsement from Democrats for Israel-LA and disagreements over Gaza, and endorsed her again this cycle. She says she makes her council decisions independently of the group.

A Term Defined By The Fires

Bass ran on the endorsements of Gov. Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi and major unions, and all 14 of her council colleagues backed her. She also ran on a record dominated by the January 2025 fires, which broke out while she was on a trip to Africa. "It was a mistake to travel, but I will tell you that we need to evaluate everything," she said during the campaign.

Raman made that the center of her closing argument:

Mayor Bass has shown she is not capable of leading our city through disaster.

In LA's darkest moments, she's been missing in action. Our communities have already paid too high a price for her failures.

Four more years is a risk Los Angeles cannot afford. pic.twitter.com/yK0iWpdVM5
— Nithya Raman (@nithyavraman) October 30, 2026

What Comes Next

Raman has campaigned on building housing faster, cutting homelessness, bringing back entertainment jobs and better city services. She has also said she plans to fire LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell, and the police union is already sounding the alarm.

"If Nithya Raman becomes the mayor, the city needs to prepare for Armageddon," said Jamie McBride, a leader of the LAPD officers' union. "She won't have to defund the police; police officers will just leave the department."

Conservatives weren't waiting for the AP:

Los Angeles just Elected Nithya Raman, a dues-paying member of the Democratic Socialists of America, to be their next Mayor.

Raman oversaw all fraud as the chair of the homelessness committee and despite having a $1 billion budget, homelessness rose. She is directly responsible... pic.twitter.com/JVSc96LysL
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) November 5, 2026

If the count holds, the two largest cities in America will both be run by members of the Democratic Socialists of America, and Los Angeles will get to find out whether it goes better than it has in Zohran Mamdani's New York.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 06:30

Prison Time For Discussing The Great Replacement? French Left-Wing Lawmakers Push For Draconian New Law

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 11:00:00 +0000

Prison Time For Discussing The Great Replacement? French Left-Wing Lawmakers Push For Draconian New Law

Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix News,

In the aftermath of a deadly shooting in Trappes, the left, including the mayor of Trappes, is pushing to criminalize discussions of demographic change, the "Great Replacement" theory, or "remigration." If they succeed, French people and politicians could face up to three years in prison for describing the Great Replacement.

🇫🇷🔴 The French could face prison for mentioning the Great Replacement under a new proposal. The mayor of Trappes, Ali Rabeh, is calling for a change in the law to criminalize those who claim that replacement immigration is occurring against the ethnic French population. Rabeh, who holds dual Moroccan and French citizenship, suggests that the Constitution could even be amended to pass the draconian speech law. On the same day he made this proposal, Green (EELV) parliamentarians, including deputies Sabrina Sebaihi and Steevy Gustave, filed related legislative proposals to strengthen sanctions against those discussing the Great Replacement or remigration. Follow: @RMXnews
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) November 3, 2026

Critics, including Reconquête party leader Éric Zemmour and others, call the measures an authoritarian assault on free expression that seeks to ban observation of well-documented population shifts rather than conspiracy theories alone.

The left is trying to capitalize on a shooting from Oct. 23, 2026, in Trappes and nearby La Verrière. Kevin T. killed Pengo Bossio Wangi and wounded seven others, reportedly targeting people of Muslim, African, or North African appearance. He told investigators he could no longer stand being "invaded."

Prison for mentioning the Great Replacement

Mayor Ali Rabeh - of the Génération.s party and who holds dual Moroccan-French citizenship - responded on France Inter by arguing that existing hate-speech rules under the 1881 press law are insufficient. He proposed amending Article 24 to punish those who present groups, "by reason of their origin or belonging to a religion, an ethnicity or a supposed race," as agents of a process of replacement of an "alleged native white French people" by immigration or the descendants of immigration.

Rabeh explicitly linked the shooter's language to the Great Replacement, which was first described by Renaud Camus. He said the National Rally had "ideologically armed" the attacker. He suggested that, if necessary, the Constitution itself should be amended.

The Great Replacement "is not a theory, but the name for a phenomenon that I consider the most important of our time. With this chrononym we can describe our era of the beginning of the 21st century to characterize the century as that of the Great Population Exchange, comparable to the Great War, the Great Depression, and the Great Plague," said French philosopher and author Renaud Camus.

The same day, Green deputies Sabrina Sebaihi and Steevy Gustave deposited a bill in the National Assembly, and a parallel text was filed in the Senate by Akli Mellouli. The proposals would specify that provocation to discrimination, hatred, or violence can arise from remarks invoking "the replacement of one population by another or the necessity of a remigration" when they designate a group as a threat because of origin or real or supposed ethnic or national belonging.

Penalties would be aggravated for elected officials or candidates, resulting in up to three years' imprisonment and a €75,000 fine.

Sebaihi framed the move on X:

Les mots tuent. À Trappes, ils ont tué. Avec Akli Mellouli et Steevy Gustave, nous déposons une proposition de loi contre les discours de haine raciste. « Grand remplacement », « remigration » : ce ne sont pas des opinions, ce sont des munitions. Leurs promoteurs doivent en répondre devant la loi.
— Sabrina Sebaihi (@SabrinaSebaihi) October 30, 2026

The reaction from the right was pointed, with Éric Zemmour writing:

Le goulag est en marche. Voilà le projet de leur République socialo-islamique.
— Eric Zemmour (@ZemmourEric) October 30, 2026

Other voices argued the proposals criminalize demographic reality rather than a supposed "conspiracy." Commentators noted that INSEE data show substantial foreign-national and immigrant shares in Trappes, at approximately 30 percent. However, the proportion of ethnic French is far lower than the data suggests, with INSEE refusing to publish statistics on second-generation migrants with French citizenship. In reality, most reports indicate that ethnic French are very much in the minority in the city.

Constitutionalists such as Benjamin Morel and Anne-Charlène Bezzina warned that the texts risk a disproportionate restriction on free expression, that existing incitement-to-hatred provisions already cover clear cases. Morel also writes that the Constitutional Council or European Court of Human Rights would likely strike down such a measure due to freedom of speech in Europe.

Camus says the Great Replacement is "not a theory"

Renaud Camus, the writer who coined the phrase, has continued to insist the underlying phenomenon is real and observable, distinguishing it from unfounded conspiracy claims.

In an interview released last week in the German newspaper Welt, he stated that the Great Replacement "is not a theory, but the name for a phenomenon that I consider the most important of our time. With this chrononym we can describe our era of the beginning of the 21st century to characterize the century as that of the Great Population Exchange, comparable to the Great War, the Great Depression, and the Great Plague."

He further stated: "My opponents may reject the term, but they admit the fact. Even Jean-Luc Mélenchon speaks of creolization. Everyone admits that the composition of the population in France has changed."

🇫🇷🚨 French far-left leader calls for the Great Replacement Jean-Luc Mélenchon: "France is destined to be a Creole (mixed Black and French) nation and so much the better! Let the young generation do the replacement of the old... Each generation is a new people!"
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 7, 2025

Remigration advocates view the legislative push as confirmation that authorities prefer to suppress discussion of the scale and consequences of post-war migration rather than address integration failures, security issues, or public opinion. They point out that the same political forces have, on other occasions, spoken positively of demographic "créolisation" or the "new France."

The Great Replacement is also not merely a "lofty theory" discussed among a niche group of right-wingers, but a mainstream and recognized development by the French public. Polling shows that 60 percent of the French believe the Great Replacement is occurring, which involves the replacement of ethnic French people with people from Africa, Asia, and other countries.

Under such a law, even France's most famed author, Michel Houellebecq, could face prison time if he were to call the Great Replacement a "fact" again, as he did in 2022.

Whether the proposals to criminalize discussions of the Great Replacement actually advance in a fragmented National Assembly remains uncertain. What is clear is that the left is actively preparing such measures, and should they gain power, many citizens, including politicians, could be headed to prison for simply describing a clear and undeniable statistical reality taking place across Europe.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 06:00

US Suspends South Africa, Rwanda From Key African Trade Program

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 11:00:00 +0000

US Suspends South Africa, Rwanda From Key African Trade Program

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Nov. 2 that Washington will suspend South Africa and Rwanda from its duty-free trade program for sub-Saharan Africa, citing failures on trade barriers, corruption, governance, and human rights.

"President Trump found that the governments of Rwanda and South Africa are engaging in practices that are inconsistent with [the African Growth and Opportunity Act's] eligibility criteria," Greer said in a statement, adding that there are threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests in both countries.

The Trump administration said it is "deeply concerned" by South Africa's barriers to U.S. trade and investment, and corruption. Regarding Rwanda, the U.S. government cited issues with the rule of law, political pluralism, and internationally recognized worker rights and human rights.

Greer notified Congress that the two countries would be suspended from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from Jan. 1, 2027.

Enacted in 2000, AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of products.

But as a rule, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative says that to meet AGOA's "rigorous eligibility" requirements, countries have to "establish or make continual progress toward establishing a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism, and the right to due process."

Additionally, it said countries must eliminate barriers to U.S. trade and investment, enact policies to reduce poverty, combat corruption, and protect human rights.

According to a 2023 U.S. Trade Representative factsheet, South Africa was the top AGOA supplier ($3.6 billion), providing mostly vehicles and parts, fruits, precious metals, and chemicals.

The Trump administration has taken a series of measures against South Africa, accusing its government of persecuting white South Africans.

On Feb. 7, 2025, Trump issued an executive order suspending all U.S. foreign aid to South Africa.

The order also stated that the Trump administration would promote the resettlement of "Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination, including racially discriminatory property confiscation" in South Africa. On May 12, nearly 60 white South Africans arrived in the United States as the first group granted asylum under the president's resettlement program.

"It is regrettable that South African policies led to the termination of AGOA for South Africa," U.S. Ambassador to South Africa L. Brent Bozell III said in a Nov. 3 post on X.

Bozell said this was a "predictable and preventable outcome resulting from the rejection by South Africa's government of real concerns" raised by the U.S. government.

"I remain hopeful that we can find a path forward to address our larger bilateral concerns, but the South African government must understand the gravity of the situation," he said.

South Africa's trade ministry said on Nov. 2 that it would continue to "accelerate the diversification of South Africa's export markets."

"AGOA remains important to South Africa, but it does not constitute the totality of the economic relationship between South Africa and the United States," it said in a statement.

The top Democratic lawmaker on the House Ways and Means Committee said that for the Trump administration "to abandon South Africa and strip them of that progress and opportunity over a debunked fixation on anti-apartheid efforts is unconscionable."

"It's yet another trade decision grounded in grievance that flies in the face of what responsible policy should be," Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said.

Rwanda is a much smaller trading nation than South Africa. Its apparel benefits under AGOA were previously restricted in July 2018, under the first Trump administration, after Rwanda increased tariffs on imported secondhand clothing.

On Oct. 28, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on the Rwandan Ministry of Defence and Zigama Credit and Savings Society, a Rwandan financial institution that it said played a key role in facilitating Rwanda's support for the March 23 Movement (M23) and its political wing, the Congo River Alliance.

M23 is a U.S.- and U.N.-designated armed group that has illegally seized territory in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

OFAC claimed that with support from Rwanda's security apparatus, M23 has "captured key population centers and mining areas in eastern DRC," where it has perpetrated "human rights abuses, subjected civilians to exploitation and forced labor, and contributed to a severe humanitarian crisis marked by mass displacement."

Rwanda has denied backing M23. The Epoch Times has contacted the Rwandan government for comment.

Reuters, Emel Akan, and Ryan Morgan contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 06:00

Sequoia Capital Shutters London Office As Silicon Valley's VC Giants Pull Back

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 10:20:00 +0000

Sequoia Capital Shutters London Office As Silicon Valley's VC Giants Pull Back

In a troubling sign for European capital markets, Sequoia Capital, one of Silicon Valley's top venture capital firms, is shuttering its London-based office after roughly six years of operation.

"This is not about the team; they are excellent. We simply don't see the need for a local presence," Sequoia wrote in an X post.

The venture capital firm said it has wound down its Arc accelerator and Scouts programs, simplified the Sequoia Capital Fund and combined its early-stage and growth investing operations into one team.

The London closure will result in several departures. Sequoia said it still sees opportunities for Europe to "produce outlier founders and companies" but can "provide world-class support from our home base in the Bay Area."

As explained by Sequoia, here comes the consolidation:

There is no more "Early & Growth." There is only Sequoia. We are one team, operating under one shared mission. This should make things more seamless for founders as they go from stage to stage

https://t.co/ZuGVVQLF5E
— Sequoia Capital (@sequoia) November 4, 2026

Sequoia's "new chapter" of consolidating around the Bay Area, where the pace of technological change is extraordinary, only suggests trouble in European capital markets. It joins a growing retreat of top investment firms from London, following Andreessen Horowitz's office closure last year and Coatue's 2024 exit.

Notably, an Axios report last month said Andreessen Horowitz laid off most of its 34-person team that helped startups recruit talent.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 05:20

Cyberattack Targets French Blood Bank Fridges

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 09:40:00 +0000

Cyberattack Targets French Blood Bank Fridges

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

A cyberattack against the refrigerator systems of France's public blood service was thwarted on Monday, officials have said, the incident coming after supermarkets across Europe reported that their cooling equipment was targeted by hackers.

The French Blood Establishment (EFS) said in a Nov. 3 statement that one of its refrigeration equipment suppliers had been targeted, resulting in temperatures being forced to rise in the cold storage rooms at three of its sites.

"The EFS's monitoring and alarm systems enabled the rapid identification of these anomalies and the implementation of necessary measures to ensure that no blood samples or products were compromised," the statement said.

It said that affected equipment was brought under control and that no blood products or samples were impacted or ruined.

It added that blood products, including plasma needed for transfusion, which had been stored in these rooms, were transferred to other facilities as a precaution.

Service to patients was not interrupted by the incident, the EFS said.

The EFS stressed that it was not targeted itself, but rather the equipment supplier was.

The organization stores blood products, including plasma, in its preparation and distribution sites before they are sent on to hospitals and other kinds of healthcare facilities. It also keeps blood samples for its biobanks.

France's National Cybersecurity Agency, or ANSSI, and the French Ministry of Health are investigating the incident, the EFS said.

The cyberattack follows incidents across Europe on Monday, where supermarkets reported their freezers and refrigerators being tampered with remotely, with temperatures being forced to rise.

European Supermarket Refrigerators Hacked

On Nov. 2, several supermarket chains across a number of countries in Europe reported hacks that forced temperatures in their store refrigerators and freezers to rise to 122 degrees Fahrenheit.

Countries affected include Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, Italy, and Germany. Several stores were forced to throw away food.

Frank Groenewegen, cybersecurity expert at Deloitte in The Hague, said that retailers should identify whether their refrigerator and freezer controllers are vulnerable, and, if they are networked, ensure the system has the latest security updates.

"If they don't even know, then remove them from the public internet immediately," he said.

"With disconnecting, you haven't fixed the root cause but you've at least isolated those systems so that an attacker is not able to do this anymore."

Many European supermarkets are run by independent business owners in a cooperative structure, meaning their systems might not be the same as other stores under the brand.

However, even integrated supermarket groups were hit. French multinational supermarket Carrefour, which had 80 franchised stores subjected to cyberattacks last month, experienced attacks against 15 stores in Belgium on Monday.

The incidents follow an October attack in France, in which hackers remotely took control of refrigeration systems in hundreds of supermarkets and independent stores across the country, also forcing temperatures to rise.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 04:40

Brace For A Decade Of Pain, Warns Britain's IFS

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Brace For A Decade Of Pain, Warns Britain's IFS

The Institute for Fiscal Studies says Britain is on course for the weakest decade for household income growth on record after Chancellor John Healey's first Budget, which the think tank judged unable to change the country's economic path. The IFS published its response on Oct. 28, a day before director Helen Miller took questions at a webinar.

The Telegraph reported that the IFS expects a typical family's disposable income to rise by an average of just 2% over the 2020s, the worst growth in records going back to the 1950s. The IFS called Healey's package "unhelpful fiddling," the paper said. Miller put it this way:

"This decade looks set to be the worst decade for growth in household incomes on record. No amount of temporary cost of living packages will fix that. We need a stronger economy."

Before the Budget, Miller had warned that "steady-as-you-go" budgeting was not an option and that it would be a choice to accept cuts to the quantity or quality of some public services.

Healey delivered the Budget on Oct. 28.

The Office for Budget Responsibility's figures show the headroom against his fiscal rule fell to £15 billion in 2029-30, from £23.6 billion at the March forecast, according to Portfolio Adviser. The main revenue measure was a three-point rise in the bank surcharge: banks pay 6% on profits above £100 million for 15 months from January, to fund energy bill support. Gilts were broadly in line with market expectations on the day.

Business groups said it did not go far enough on growth. In the Telegraph, CBI chief executive Rain Newton-Smith called the Budget a "missed opportunity" and said the measures risked doing more harm than good. She said it "neglected aviation, distribution and other sectors, while a banking surcharge undermined the competitiveness of financial services." Chris Hayward of the City of London Corporation asked why Healey had not addressed the "eye-watering" sums spent on benefits while raiding the banks. "Braver decisions are needed, starting with the welfare bill," he said, according to the Telegraph.

Healey gave two answers on welfare, the Telegraph reported. On BBC Radio 4's Today programme, asked whether benefits would be cut before the next election, he said: "There will be a reduction in the benefits bill - we'll do that in a Labour way, and we will do that because it is simply not good for Britain or progressive to have a bigger and bigger benefits bill." Later that day, on Channel 4 News, he conceded: "It's not correct to say that we're going to bring this welfare bill down in this parliament because we've not set a timetable for that."

The annual cost of benefits is forecast to top £430 billion in 2031-32, the Telegraph reported.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 04:00

COVID-Dissident Doctor Arrested For "Insulting" Berlin Mayor

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 08:20:00 +0000

COVID-Dissident Doctor Arrested For "Insulting" Berlin Mayor

Authored by John Rosenthal via The Daily Sceptic,

A German doctor who rose to prominence during the Covid period for his criticism of the Covid-response measures has been arrested in Berlin in connection with "insults" of Berlin's outgoing Mayor Kai Wegner. Paul Brandenburg, who has several social media channels and a podcast, has previously been the target of numerous other German speech-crime investigations and charges. Although a native Berliner, he presently lives in Switzerland. He was arrested at Berlin's Willy Brandt airport last Wednesday in the company of his 10 year-old child. According to his lawyer Markus Haintz, he was travelling with the child, who still lives in Berlin.

"Insults" are a crime under Section 185 of the German Criminal Code. Under Section 188 of the Criminal Code, Germany's so-called lèse-majesté law, public officials like Wegner enjoy heightened protection against "insults" as well as against "malicious gossip" and defamation, which is treated as a crime not a tort.

According to Haintz, Brandenburg is being investigated in connection with four charges of simple "insults" of Wegner and two charges of defamation under the lèse-majesté law.

Although German speech crime charges rarely result in arrests, the Berlin public prosecutor's office told the German alternative media outlet Apollo News that Brandenburg was arrested because he represented a "flight risk". In addition, the prosecutor's office noted that defamation under the lèse-majesté law carries a minimum sentence of six months in prison. It also referred to prior convictions. Brandenburg is reported to have ignored prior fines.

All of Brandenburg's alleged "insults" of Wegner allude in one way or another to the Berlin government's association with the Berlin-based drag queen and trans-activist who goes by the stage-name Jurassica Parka. Parka's real name is Mario Olszinski. In September, Olszinski was convicted of the possession of child pornography by the Berlin Regional Court and sentenced to 10 months in prison with probation. He had already been convicted of distributing "child pornographic writings" in 2023.

The investigation that led to Olszinski's latest conviction was opened following receipt of a tip on Olszinski's online activities from the US National Center for Missing and Exploited Children. According to numerous reports in the German press, the investigation was opened in May 2025. Nonetheless, two months later, on July 14th, none other than 'Jurassica Parka' hosted a gala sponsored by none other than the Berlin police! Olszinski's home was raided by the police that very month, according to some reports before and other reports after the gala.

Be that as it may, the gala was dedicated to raising money for alleged queer victims of 'hate crimes', which in Germany may also include 'hate speech'. The event was titled Gemeinsambunt, which roughly translates as 'Diversely Together'. The official patron of the event was Berlin police chief Barbara Slowik. Deputy police chief Marco Langner posed with Olszinski. Olszinski wore a miniskirt; Langner a Scottish kilt.

According to Apollo News, Wegner was also present. Wegner is, incidentally, a member of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party. One year earlier, according to Apollo News, 'Jurassica Parka' hosted another event sponsored by the Berlin government. This one was titled "Queens and Flowers" and included a "Drag-Queen Reading Hour" for children.

Brandenburg's posts include, for instance, an October 30th 2025 tweet that begins:

Reminder: Berlin's mayor @KaiWegner to this day uses taxpayer money to send child-fuckers to daycare centers. His police chief Barbara Slowik actively promoted this ideology through her own appearances with a child-porno offender.

Erinnerungsservice: Berlins Regierender Bürgermeister @KaiWegner schickt bis heute Kinderficker auf Steuergeld in Kitas. Seine Präsidentin der @polizeiberlin Barbara Slowik bewarb diese Ideologie aktiv durch eigene Auftritte mit einem Kinderporno-Verbrecher. Beide Kreaturen,... pic.twitter.com/PG8en0xG1O
— Paul Brandenburg (@docbrandenburg) October 30, 2025

A second tweet from two weeks later begins:

Reminder for parents: Berlin is governed by child-fucker fans. Berlin's mayor @KaiWegner... is using taxpayer money to pay men wearing women's undies to perform in front of children at daycare centers. The chief of @polizeiberlin, Barbara Slowik, and her deputy are also supporting this propaganda for the sexualisation of children by officially promoting their appearances with a child-porno offender.

Erinnerungsservice für Eltern: Berlin wird von Kinderficker-Fans regiert

Berlins regierender Bürgermeister @KaiWegner (vorn mittig im Bild) bezahlt Männer in Frauenwäsche mit Steuergeld dafür, in Kitas vor Kindern aufzutreten. Die Präsidentin der @polizeiberlin, Barbara Slowik... pic.twitter.com/mttujApPFm
— Paul Brandenburg (@docbrandenburg) November 14, 2025

(Translations by the author.)

John Rosenthal is a journalist and political analyst who writes on European politics and transatlantic issues. You can subscribe to his Transatlantic Intelligencer Substack here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 03:20

Germany Pledges More Winter Aid To Ukraine As Kremlin Says Europe Has No Seat At Abu Dhabi Talks

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 07:40:00 +0000

Germany Pledges More Winter Aid To Ukraine As Kremlin Says Europe Has No Seat At Abu Dhabi Talks

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised Ukraine more air defense and energy support before winter at a Berlin press conference with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week, but announced no new weapons package. Merz said "two things are important before the coming winter: air defense and the energy sector," in the Chancellery's transcript (translated from the German).

As Ukraine's largest supporter, Germany bears a responsibility, because the outcome of the war will also shape the security of Europe. "Our support for Ukraine is therefore in the German and European interest," Merz emphasized. The message to Russia is: " It is time to end this war."

Zelenskyy named what Kyiv is short of: PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system, IRIS-T systems, and a new support package for Ukraine's F-16 fleet. He described a major shortage in air defense.

Merz put the weight on partners paying what they have already pledged. He said NATO members agreed on 70 billion euros of military support for Ukraine in 2026 and that every one of them has to meet that figure.

He also pointed to the regional ceasefire at Oleshky as a possible model for a ceasefire on energy and in the Black Sea. Zelenskyy said Russia answered that pause with fresh attacks.

On the diplomacy, Merz said Russia must negotiate a ceasefire and peace deal in earnest, and added "I do not see that so far." Zelenskyy said the United States and Russia cannot decide whether Ukraine joins the European Union, and listed his asks for the next round: an energy ceasefire, Black Sea shipping, prisoner exchanges and a leaders' meeting with Europe at the table.

Moscow is shutting that door.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian media that the Abu Dhabi talks, set for Nov. 10 and 11 with U.S. mediation, will cover security guarantees, and "These can only be mutual," he said, according to TASS. Russia's delegation will include several agencies, the Foreign Ministry among them, and will be led by Vladimir Medinsky.

Peskov ruled out European participation because the trilateral format has already been agreed. He said Russia will eventually have to discuss a European security system with European countries, but that it is unclear who would speak for Europe, and he criticized how slowly Europeans are choosing negotiators.

Next on Merz's calendar is a Coalition of the Willing summit in Berlin on Nov. 19, co-hosted with France and the United Kingdom. He gave it three goals: coordinating more aid for Ukraine, reaffirming readiness for security guarantees after a ceasefire, and aligning diplomatic efforts. A German-Ukrainian business forum follows in Berlin on Nov. 20.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/05/2026 - 02:40

Trump's Legacy Will Ultimately Be Determined By The Outcome Of The Third Gulf War

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 04:25:00 +0000

Trump's Legacy Will Ultimately Be Determined By The Outcome Of The Third Gulf War

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Andrew Korybko's Newsletter,

The Democrats retook control of Congress in an electoral bloodbath that decimated the Republicans during the midterms. Many had predicted that this would happen, and it's not because of the Canadian meddling that the White House recently drew attention to or any other countries' related efforts, but due to the cost of living surging as a result of the Third Gulf War that Trump initiated with Bibi. Higher oil prices naturally translated into higher prices across the board that hit average Americans very hard.

Trump earlier threatened to become "Mr. Veto" if the Republicans lost control of Congress, elaborating that the Supreme Court recently strengthened his executive authority, and his sharing on social media of a pic of a red hat with the word "VETO" on it after the results poured in suggests that he's serious. That's sensible since it would be illogical for him to pass up the opportunity to veto legislation against his agenda when the Democrats don't have the two-thirds supermajority in both chambers to overrule him.

The Democrats will therefore have to either compromise over the next two years or the US will remain legislatively paralyzed with both sides blaming the other ahead of the next elections. The Democrats might also try to once again impeach Trump, but they lack the two-thirds supermajority in the Senate to oust him from office, so it would only be symbolic. In any case, Trump might pivot towards foreign policy if domestic policy is deadlocked, which could have important implications for many countries.

Chief among them is Iran since Trump's legacy will ultimately be determined by the outcome of the Third Gulf War. Each side blames the other for perpetuating the conflict across the entire year, but just like the Democrats will have to compromise if they want any of their legislation to pass, so too must Trump compromise with Iran if he wants to save his legacy. The reason is simple and it's that perpetuating the high cost of living sparked by higher oil prices will doom the Republicans in 2028.

The scenario of a Democrat president presiding over a Democrat-controlled Congress would spell the end of everything that Trump achieved at home and abroad during his second term, and it's a credible scenario too since voters care more about the economy than foreign policy or so-called "culture wars". About that, the Democrats' landslide wouldn't have happened without some Republicans either staying home or voting for the Democrats in protest, which they did due to their surging cost of living.

This doesn't mean that they "betrayed" Trump or the causes that they supported just two years ago, however, since most of them likely believed that Trump would indeed become "Mr. Veto" to preserve his achievements for at least the next two years. What they wanted to do was simply show him that the higher cost of living that the Third Gulf War is responsible for, which many of them consider to be a voluntary war since they don't believe that Iran was on the verge of building a nuke, is unacceptable.

Therefore, nothing would rejuvenate his base more than to swiftly compromise with Iran as a means of showing them that he heard their message loud and clear, which would then facilitate a gradual decrease in the cost of living that could restore the economy by 2028 and help the Republicans win.

If he remains bogged down in the Gulf or provokes Iran into obliterating the region's energy infrastructure in retaliation for being nuked, for example, then MAGA will likely be swept into the dustbin of history.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 23:25

Virginia Now Protects Third-Trimester Abortion With Doctor's Note

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 04:00:00 +0000

Virginia Now Protects Third-Trimester Abortion With Doctor's Note

Virginia voters on Tuesday approved Amendment 1, writing a "fundamental right to reproductive freedom" into the state constitution. The Associated Press called the race at 9:01 p.m. Eastern with the measure ahead 60.7% to 39.3%, with about 63% of ballots counted.

The new Section 11-A of the Bill of Rights, as published by the Virginia Department of Elections, covers "prenatal care, childbirth, postpartum care, contraception, abortion care, miscarriage management, and fertility care." It says the right cannot be "directly or indirectly, denied, burdened, or infringed upon unless justified by a compelling state interest achieved by the least restrictive means," and it defines a compelling interest as one with "the limited purpose of maintaining or improving the health of an individual seeking care."

The fight is over the third trimester. The amendment says the state "may regulate the provision of abortion care in the third trimester," but that "in no circumstance shall the Commonwealth prohibit an abortion" that "in the professional judgment of a physician is medically indicated to protect the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant individual," or when a physician judges the fetus not viable.

Current law is stricter on process. Under Virginia Code 18.2-74, a third-trimester abortion requires the performing physician and two consulting physicians to certify, "based upon their best clinical judgment," that continuing the pregnancy "is likely to result in the death of the woman or substantially and irremediably impair the mental or physical health of the woman." The amendment's language names the judgment of "a physician" and does not mention consulting physicians.

"Flawed and deceptive means": Founding Freedoms Law Center lawyer Josh Hetzler on Virginia's abortion amendment. The group is also challenging the same-sex marriage amendment for a Prince William County pastor. pic.twitter.com/dgv7wxj0WY
— Virginia Insider (@virginiainsider) November 4, 2026

Opponents say the language reaches well past abortion. They argue the "sweeping" reproductive freedom wording and its strict-scrutiny test will invite litigation against medical safety laws, including rules requiring facilities to have lifesaving support available for a fetus born alive. Supporters of the measure say it protects access to abortion, contraception and fertility care and keeps those medical decisions private.

Opponents also have a court date. A challenge filed by the Founding Freedoms Law Center, the legal arm of the Family Foundation, seeks a preliminary injunction to block certification of the referendum results, arguing the ballot language was misleading. A hearing is set for Nov. 13, the Virginia Mercury reported.

Virginia performed nearly 40,000 abortions in 2025, roughly 8,400 of them on out-of-state residents, according to the pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute. Abortions after 21 weeks make up about 1% of the 1.1 million performed in the U.S. each year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 23:00

Going Postal On The GOP? Kansas Mail Carrier Charged With Stealing Thousands Of Letters

Tyler Durden — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 03:10:00 +0000

Going Postal On The GOP? Kansas Mail Carrier Charged With Stealing Thousands Of Letters

A federal grand jury in Wichita indicted a rural route carrier on Election Day for stealing 4,404 pieces of mail, nearly 400 of them political mailers that were all for Republican candidates or Republican-affiliated PACs, according to a release from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Kansas.

Kelly R. Cram, 59, of Baxter Springs, was charged with one count of unlawful secretion, destruction and delay of mail. The indictment says she worked as a rural route carrier at the post office in Pittsburg, Kansas, and was placed on administrative leave on October 7, 2026.

Prosecutors allege that beginning in October 2026, Cram took mail meant for customers in and around Pittsburg and kept it in her garage. Agents who searched her residence found no mailers for candidates of any other party, the release says.

The Justice Department announced the indictment on X the same afternoon:

🚨 A federal grand jury in Wichita, Kansas returned an indictment today charging a postal worker with stealing thousands of pieces of mail, including hundreds of political mailings that were all related to Republican Party candidates.

According to court documents, Kelly R. Cram,... pic.twitter.com/80qDT34fRY
— U.S. Department of Justice (@TheJusticeDept) November 3, 2026

The U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General is investigating.

Postal workers have been charged over campaign mail before. In 2024, a carrier was accused of dumping about 300 mailers backing Rep. Tom Kean Jr., a New Jersey Republican, as New Jersey Globe reported.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/04/2026 - 22:10