商业 - 财富中文网

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

这位亿万富翁表示，入职他执掌的这家公司比拥有哈佛学位更有价值

Preston Fore — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

苹果、谷歌和OpenAI，Palantir的亿万富翁掌门人亚历克斯·卡普（Alex Karp）表示，在他执掌的这家人工智能公司工作，才能拥有“科技界最具含金量的履历”。图片来源：David Paul Morris—Bloomberg/Getty Images

• 尽管拥有三个学位，Palantir首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普早已对高等教育感到厌倦。这位亿万富翁在公司财报电话会议上抨击哈佛和耶鲁等顶尖大学，称一旦加入Palantir，学位便不再重要：“这绝对是科技行业最具含金量的履历。如果你加入Palantir，你的职业生涯就有了保障。”

当前就业市场竞争激烈，Z世代不仅求职艰难，还普遍背负着巨额学生贷款。在这样的背景下，越来越多的年轻人承认，攻读大学学位或许只是徒劳，不少商界领袖也持相同观点。

Great Place to Work首席执行官迈克尔·布什（Michael Bush）此前在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示，如今的头部雇主“甚至不再谈论学位”，“他们关注的是技能”。

Palantir首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普是最新一位公开质疑传统教育价值的企业高管。

“无论你是否上过学，毕业于普通院校，还是哈佛、普林斯顿、耶鲁，只要你加入Palantir，你就是Palantir人，没有人会在乎你的其他标签。”卡普在2025年8月的财报电话会议上表示。

这位58岁的掌门人补充道，公司正在打造一套全新的、“与阶层和出身无关”的资历认证体系。

他表示：“这绝对是科技行业最具含金量的履历。如果你加入Palantir，你的职业生涯就有了保障。”

Palantir的高速增长，得益于一群渴望“改变历史进程”的员工

Palantir目前每季度营收接近或超过10亿美元，仅2025年一年，其股价就上涨逾100%。截至发稿，公司市值超3160亿美元，较2025年秋季4750亿美元的峰值有所回落。

在卡普看来，Palantir崛起的秘诀，从来不是靠奢华总部吸引人才，也不是靠招揽常春藤盟校的精英人才，而是打造了一支不以名校文凭为重的员工队伍。

Palantir首席技术官夏姆·桑卡尔（Shyam Sankar）也持相同观点。得益于公司近期市值飙升，他去年跻身亿万富豪之列。

桑卡尔去年8月表示：“我们能够吸引、留住并激励那些真正渴望在这里改变历史进程、潜心攻克难题并推动成果落地的人才。”

Palantir对现有教育及人才培养模式的鄙夷并非仅停留在口头层面。卡普及其联合创始人彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）和乔·朗斯代尔（Joe Lonsdale）一直支持奥斯汀大学（University of Austin）。这所新建的四年制高校以倡导言论自由和“反觉醒主义”精神为荣。

《财富》杂志已联系Palantir寻求置评。

Palantir一边吸引年轻人才，一边计划裁员

Palantir目前正在全公司范围内开放数十个岗位，涵盖产品开发和美国政府相关岗位，同时设有多个专门面向实习生和应届毕业生的职位。

值得关注的是，该公司去年还设立了“菁英奖学金项目”。这是一个为期4个月的带薪实习项目，面向那些对接受高等教育心存疑虑的高中毕业生。项目录取完全基于“个人能力和学业表现”，但申请者的考试成绩仍需达到常春藤盟校的成绩要求，包括SAT不低于1460分、ACT不低于33分，两项考试均需挤进前2%。

卡普表示，设立该实习项目，旨在直接应对“大学录取制度的缺陷”。

“美国许多高校录取标准缺乏透明度，已背离了英才教育与追求卓越的理念。”Palantir的招聘公告中写道。“最终的结果是，符合录取条件的学生因主观、肤浅的评判标准，被剥夺受教育机会。在背离英才教育的当下，校园已成为极端主义和混乱的温床。”

卡普在2025年2月接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示：“你在中小学和大学学习的关于世界运行规律的知识，在认知层面存在偏差。”

表现优异的实习生将获得全职岗位的面试机会。招聘公告中写道：“告别助学贷款，摆脱思想灌输，获取Palantir学位”。

然而，这些被招揽的年轻人才参与开发的项目，最终可能导致自己被人工智能取代。卡普去年承认，他希望裁减500名员工。

卡普在2025年8月接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道采访时表示：“我们计划在实现营收持续增长的同时，缩减员工数量。这是一场颠覆性的、极致的效率革命。我们的目标是实现营收增长10倍，同时将员工人数控制在3600人。目前我们共有4100名员工。”（财富中文网）

译者：中慧言-王芳

• Palantir CEO Alex Karp may have three degrees to his name—but he’s fed up with higher education. The billionaire took a shot at elite universities, including Harvard and Yale, during one of his AI firm’s earnings calls, saying degrees don’t matter once you land at Palantir: “This is by far the best credential in tech. If you come to Palantir, your career is set.”

With Gen Z facing an uphill battle in today’s job market, and many facing mounds of student loan debt, a growing number of young people have conceded that pursuing a degree may have been a worthless endeavor—and some business leaders are agreeing.

In fact, top employers today aren’t “even talking about degrees” anymore, Great Place to Work CEO Michael Bush, previously told Fortune. “They’re talking about skills.”

Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir, is one of the latest executives to publicly question the value of traditional schooling.

“If you did not go to school, or you went to a school that’s not that great, or you went to Harvard or Princeton or Yale, once you come to Palantir, you’re a Palantirian—no one cares about the other stuff,” Karp said during an August 2025 earnings call.

The 58-year-old added that his company is building a new credential “separate from class or background.”

“This is by far the best credential in tech. If you come to Palantir, your career is set,” he said.

Palantir’s hot streak is thanks to workers who want to ‘bend the arc of history’

Palantir now pulls in revenue near—or above—$1 billion each quarter, with its stock price rising over 100% in 2025 alone. While its market cap now sits at over $316 billion at the time of publication, it is down from Palantir’s blockbuster fall 2025, when its value topped $475 billion.

But according to Karp, the secret to Palantir’s rise hasn’t been luring workers with a bougie headquarters or scooping up Ivy League talent—it’s bringing together a workforce that doesn’t focus on a fancy college degree.

It’s a feeling echoed by Shyam Sankar, Palantir’s chief technology officer, who joined the billionaires club last year thanks to the recent increase in company value.

“We are able to attract and retain and motivate people who actually want to bend the arc of history here, work on the problems that drive outcomes,” Sankar said last August.

Palantir’s disdain for existing methods of education and talent development goes beyond just talk. Karp and fellow Palantir cofounders Peter Thiel and Joe Lonsdale have been supporters of the University of Austin, a new four-year school that prides itself on being centered around free speech and an “anti-woke” ethos.

Fortune reached out to Palantir for comment.

Palantir wants to attract young talent—but also cut its workforce

Palantir is currently hiring for dozens of roles across the company, including in product development and U.S. government roles—alongside multiple positions specifically for interns and new graduates.

Last year, the company also notably established the Meritocracy Fellowship, a four-month, paid internship for high school graduates who may be having second thoughts about higher education. Program admission is solely based on “merit and academic excellence,” but applicants still need Ivy League–level test scores to qualify. This includes at least a 1460 on the SAT or a 33 on the ACT, which are both above their respective 98th percentiles.

According to Karp, the internship was created in direct response to the “shortcomings of university admissions.”

“Opaque admissions standards at many American universities have displaced meritocracy and excellence,” the Palantir posting said. “As a result, qualified students are being denied an education based on subjective and shallow criteria. Absent meritocracy, campuses have become breeding grounds for extremism and chaos.”

“Everything you learned at your school and college about how the world works is intellectually incorrect,” Karp noted to CNBC in February 2025.

Successful interns will be interviewed for full-time roles. “Skip the debt,” the posting read. “Skip the indoctrination. Get the Palantir Degree.”

However, this young talent may be hired to build programs that will eventually lead to their replacement by AI. Karp admitted last year that he hopes to reduce his workforce by 500 employees.

“We’re planning to grow our revenue … while decreasing our number of people,” Karp told CNBC in August. “This is a crazy, efficient revolution. The goal is to get 10x revenue and have 3,600 people. We have now 4,100.”

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“特朗普式通胀”冲击世界杯：除了高价门票，球迷还要承担交通费

Jake Angelo — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

2025年12月5日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普、第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普与国际足联主席詹尼·因凡蒂诺在华盛顿肯尼迪表演艺术中心出席2026年世界杯分组抽签仪式。图片来源：Mandel NGAN - Pool/Getty Images

国际足联（FIFA）世界杯本应是美国今夏的一场盛事。但在关税推高成本、燃料价格居高不下、通胀顽固的背景下，对于数百万球迷而言，这场盛事正演变成一场“花钱考验”。在为进球欢呼之前，他们得先面对一连串开销：单次高达80至100多美元的往返交通费，动辄超过4,000美元的门票，还有每加仑4美元的油价。这些叠加的成本，折射出美国当前的宏观经济状况。

据《The Athletic》援引知情人士消息，新泽西交通公司（NJ Transit）计划将从纽约曼哈顿中城宾夕法尼亚车站至大都会人寿体育场的往返火车票价提高至100多美元。而这一路线的平时票价仅为12.90美元，相当于上涨约700%。按照当前方案，该票价将执行单一固定费率，不再为儿童、老年人或残障乘客提供常规折扣。

涨价压力并不局限于纽约大都会区。马萨诸塞湾交通局（Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority）也宣布，从波士顿南站至福克斯伯勒吉列体育场的往返火车票价将涨至80美元，是平时17.50美元票价的四倍多；前往体育场的巴士票价则为95美元。

这些交通附加费只是世界杯不断攀升的成本账单上的最新一项。今年早些时候，国际足联与世界贸易组织（WTO）联合发布的一项经济分析预计，本届赛事将吸引650万名观众，将产生111亿美元直接支出，为美国创造305亿美元的经济效益。然而，这一乐观预期正面临严峻的现实挑战：汽油价格已升至每加仑4美元以上，而航空燃油成本上涨也推高了机票价格。

美国国脚蒂莫西·维阿就曾公开批评门票过高。他在今年1月接受法国媒体《Le Dauphiné》采访时表示，门票“实在太贵了……我对此有些失望，很多真正的球迷将无缘现场观赛。”这种不满情绪不仅存在于球员层面，也在各国足协中得到了共鸣。据报道，法国、西班牙和英格兰已直接向国际足联主席詹尼·因凡蒂诺表达关切；球迷组织已将抗议升级为正式法律诉讼；纽约市市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼甚至在竞选期间将“门票价格的可负担性”纳入其竞选纲领。

福特汉姆大学（Fordham University）商学院法律与伦理学教授、体育商业项目负责人马克·康拉德近期在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示：“许多人原本认为这将是一场极具标志性且圆满成功的盛会，但现在多重不利因素正在浮现。”

交通与门票价格双双飙升

门票价格毫无下降迹象。本届世界杯首次引入动态定价机制，相关数据触目惊心。尽管在舆论压力下，国际足联曾限时推出60美元的低价票，但小组赛门票价格已超过4,000美元，决赛的最高票价更是突破了1万美元。

纽约—新泽西世界杯组委会向《财富》杂志表示，截至发稿时，比赛日的交通费率尚未最终确定。新泽西交通公司也给出类似回应，并补充称：“正如州长明确指出的，八场比赛产生的相关成本不会由日常通勤乘客承担。”

就在《The Athletic》的报道发表前一天，新泽西州州长米奇·谢里尔还表示决心控制票价水平。她说道：“约两个月前上任后，我便立即着手推进世界杯相关工作。我特别关注的一点是，不能让新泽西的纳税人和通勤者为世界杯观赛人群的出行买单。”

大都会人寿体育场将承办8场世界杯比赛，其中包括7月19日的决赛。由于场馆停车位有限——国际足联官方合作停车平台JustPark目前仅提供少量车位，单价高达225美元——对于从纽约市出发的多数球迷来说，火车和网约车几乎是仅有的选择。

今年3月，美国联邦交通管理局（Federal Transit Administration）宣布向11个主办城市提供总计1亿美元的交通改善补助，这些资金可用于增加公交运力、提供残障人士出行支持以及开设快速接驳线路。

但账面压力依然不小。仅新泽西交通公司就预计，其世界杯期间的运营成本将达到4,800万美元，几乎占到全部联邦补助资金的一半。在谁来填补这一缺口尚无明确答案的情况下，最终可能还是球迷用一张张昂贵的车票来埋单。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙

审校：汪皓

In an economy squeezed by tariffs, elevated fuel costs, and stubborn inflation, the FIFA World Cup was supposed to be America’s summer triumph. For millions of fans, it’s shaping up to be something else: a financial gauntlet. Before they cheer a single goal, many will face $80 to more than $100 transit fares, $4,000-plus tickets, and $4-a-gallon gas, a collision of costs that reflects the broader economic moment.

NJ Transit is planning to charge more than $100 for round-trip rail tickets from Penn Station in Midtown Manhattan to MetLife Stadium, according to The Athletic, which cited sources familiar with the agency’s planning. The normal fare for that journey is $12.90 — a roughly 700% increase. Under the current model, the fare would be a flat rate, with no discounts for children, seniors, or passengers with disabilities, who typically pay reduced fares.

The pricing pressure extends beyond the New York metro area. The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority has announced round-trip rail fares from Boston’s South Station to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough will jump to $80, more than quadrupling the standard $17.50 fare. Bus service to the stadium will run $95.

The transit surcharges are the latest entry in a mounting ledger of World Cup costs. A joint FIFA–WTO economic analysis released earlier this year projected the event would gather 6.5 million fans and generate $30.5 billion in U.S. economic activity from $11.1 billion in direct expenditures. But that optimistic forecast is colliding with gasoline averaging more than $4 per gallon and soaring airfare amid elevated jet-fuel costs.

American international Timothy Weah has actually criticized the ticket prices, telling French outlet Le Dauphiné in January that the ticket prices were simply “too expensive … I am just a bit disappointed by the ticket prices. Lots of real fans will miss matches.” The player-level discontent is mirrored at the federation level. France, Spain, and England have reportedly voiced concerns directly to FIFA president Gianni Infantino, while fan organizations have escalated beyond complaints to formal legal action and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani made ticket affordability part of his platform as he was running for election.

“You’re seeing a number of headwinds coming to what many thought was going to be a crowning and incredibly successful event,” Mark Conrad, a professor of law and ethics at Fordham University’s business school and director of its sports business concentration, told Fortune in a recent interview.

Soaring transit fares and ticket costs

Ticket prices are no relief. The tournament features dynamic pricing for the first time, and the numbers are stark. While FIFA offered $60 tickets for a limited time following backlash over pricing, group-stage seats have exceeded $4,000 and top prices for the final have surpassed $10,000.

The World Cup NYNJ Host Committee told Fortune that match-day transit were not finalized as of press time. NJ Transit offered the same response, while adding: “As the Governor has clearly stated, the cost for the eight matches will not be borne by our regular commuters.”

The Athletic‘s report came just a day after New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill said she was determined to keep prices low. “When I came into office about two months ago, I immediately got to work on the World Cup,” she said. “One of the key things I wanted to make sure of was that we were not going to be paying for moving people who were viewing the World Cup on the backs of New Jersey taxpayers and New Jersey commuters.”

MetLife Stadium will host eight World Cup matches, culminating in the final on July 19. With limited parking at the venue — JustPark (FIFA’s official parking partner) is listing a handful of spots at $225 each — trains and rideshares are effectively the only options for most fans traveling from New York City.

In March, the Federal Transit Administration announced $100 million in transit-improvement grants for the 11 U.S. host cities — funds that may go toward additional buses, disability-transport assistance, and express shuttles.

But the math is unforgiving. NJ Transit alone estimates its World Cup operating costs at $48 million, nearly half the entire federal grant pool. With no clear answer on who ultimately covers the shortfall, fans may find themselves paying it one train ticket at a time.

多邻国CEO放弃将AI使用纳入员工绩效考核

Jacqueline Munis — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

多邻国联合创始人兼首席执行官路易斯·冯·安表示，公司已调整将AI使用纳入绩效评估的政策。图片来源：Justin Merriman—Bloomberg/Getty Images

AI使用逐渐成为许多岗位的必备条件，但一些公司在评估员工绩效时，开始重新审视AI的价值。

在宣布将AI使用纳入绩效考核近一年后，多邻国（Duolingo）首席执行官路易斯·冯·安表示，公司已取消该项考核指标。

2025年4月28日，他曾宣布这家教育科技公司将转向“AI优先”，并将员工对AI的使用情况作为绩效评估的一部分。

这一举措引发了公众强烈反对。冯·安去年在接受《金融时报》采访时表示，他“没想到公众反应会如此强烈”，此前长期使用多邻国的用户表示要删除该应用。

在上周接受《Silicon Valley Girl》播客节目采访时，他谈及员工反馈称，部分员工开始质疑，多邻国是否只是为了使用AI而要求大家使用AI。

冯·安表示：“最终我们还是取消了这项要求，并告知员工：‘在绩效方面，最重要的是把本职工作做到最好。很多时候AI确实能帮上忙，但如果帮不上，我不会强迫你们去用。’”

“这项要求给人的感觉是，我们并非要为实际结果负责，而是在推动一些在某些情况下并不适用的内容。”

冯·安的这一新思路，与不少企业当前大力推动员工使用AI的做法形成对比。直到最近，Meta还设有一份全公司范围内的“AI词元使用排行榜”（前250名），由员工自发推动，员工可以查看同事的AI使用情况。

本月，营销自动化平台Omnisend宣布，将为被评为优秀AI使用者的员工加薪2%至4%。评估标准包括：使用AI节省的时间与成本、AI工作流带来的实际成果，以及相关工作流在公司内部的普及程度。

不过，SAP子公司WalkMe近期开展的一项全球调查显示，员工正在悄然回避使用AI。超过三分之一的受访者表示，在处理任务时会刻意不使用AI，因为使用AI反而会打断工作流程或增加时间成本。

除了对AI使用方式的抵触情绪外，不少员工也将这项技术视为对自身岗位和生计的直接威胁。冯·安去年提出“AI优先”战略时曾表示，公司将用AI取代部分外包人员，这一表态引发了广泛关注。

此后，冯·安进一步澄清，他并不认为AI会取代公司员工，而是希望帮助他们更好地利用这项技术。

他在上周的播客节目中表示：“现实是，AI目前还无法在编程方面超越人类。我认为我们仍然需要工程师，而且在很长一段时间内都离不开他们。”

冯·安补充道，根据他的经验，AI生成的代码往往难以调试，在为多邻国撰写内容时，AI也不够稳定可靠。

多邻国一位发言人在向《财富》杂志提供的声明中表示：“多年来，多邻国一直利用AI实现个性化学习并扩大教育覆盖面。技术是我们产品构建的核心。我们持续评估哪些方法有效，并不断优化策略，其中也包括AI在团队中的角色定位。团队的工作依赖于人类的判断、专业能力和创造力。AI工具仅起辅助作用，不是决策者，更不会取代多邻国的员工。为学习者谋求最佳体验，是我们所有决策的出发点。”（财富中文网）

翻译：郝秀

审校：汪皓

Using artificial intelligence is becoming a prerequisite for many jobs, but some companies are rethinking its value when it comes to assessing employee performance.

Nearly a year after announcing Duolingo would evaluate AI use in performance reviews, CEO Luis von Ahn said the company has let that metric go.

On April 28, 2025, he announced that the edtech company would be “AI-first,” and employees would be assessed on their AI use.

It has sparked a public backlash, and von Ahn told the Financial Times last year that he “did not expect the blowback” after longtime Duolingo users commented they were deleting the app.

In an interview on the Silcon Valley Girl podcast last week, he described the feedback from employees, saying some began to ask if Duolingo just wanted them to use AI for AI’s sake.

“At the end, we backtracked, and we said, ‘No. Look, the most important thing in your performance is that you are doing whatever your job is as well as possible. A lot of times AI can help you with that. But if it can’t, I’m not going to force you to do that,’” von Ahn said.

“It felt like rather than being held accountable for the actual outcome, we’re trying to just push something that in some cases did not fit.”

Von Ahn’s new approach diverges from many companies that are going all in on incentivizing AI employee use. Until recently, Meta had a leaderboard of the top 250 AI token users companywide, an employee-led effort that allowed workers to see how much AI their colleagues were using.

This month, employees at marketing automation platform Omnisend who are considered outstanding AI users will be awarded a 2% to 4% raise. They will be evaluated on how much time and money their AI use saves; tangible outcomes from their AI workflows; and how widely those workflows are adopted.

But a recent global survey conducted by SAP subsidiary WalkMe found that workers are quietly ducking AI use. More than a third of employees surveyed skipped using AI on tasks because it would stop their workflow or cost them more time.

In addition to pushback on how employees are using AI, many employees see the technology as a direct threat to their jobs and livelihoods. Von Ahn’s AI-first declaration last year said the company would replace contractors with AI, which raised eyebrows.

Since then, von Ahn has clarified that he does not believe AI will replace his employees, but he wants to empower his employees to use the technology.

“The reality is it’s not yet the case that AI is better at coding than humans. I think you still really need engineers, and you’re going to need them for a long time,” he said on the podcast last week.

In his experience, AI-written code can be difficult to debug and is not consistently reliable when writing stories for Duolingo, von Ahn added.

“Duolingo has used AI for years to personalize learning and expand access. Technology is core to how we build. We’re always learning about what works, and we refine our approach as we go. That includes how we think about AI’s role across our teams,” a company spokesperson told Fortune in a statement. “Our teams’ work depends on human judgment, expertise, and creativity. AI tools assist with that work; they don’t make decisions or replace the people building Duolingo. What drives every decision we make is what’s best for learners.”

达娜护士，人工智能经济中最珍贵的劳动力

Nick Lichtenberg — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

《匹兹堡医护前线》中，凯瑟琳·拉纳萨饰演达娜护士。图片来源：Michael Tran—AFP/Getty Images

如果想了解美国经济的走向，别只盯着股票行情，应该去看看美剧《匹兹堡医护前线》（The Pitt）。

这部医疗剧由HBO Max出品，是2025年初最热门的剧集之一。故事焦点并不是医术精湛的外科医生，也不是特立独行的主治医师，而是在匹兹堡急诊室里连续奋战15小时的护士和住院医师。达娜护士绝非配角，这一角色由艾美奖得主凯瑟琳·拉纳萨精彩演绎，业务出众，薪水不高，是急诊室里不可或缺的人，也越发意识到自己的优势所在。她才是整部剧的核心。

事实证明，护士达娜近乎完美地描绘了美国经济繁荣的真正方向。

思想实验

最近，乔治梅森大学（George Mason University）经济学家亚历克斯·塔巴罗克在颇具影响力的“边际革命”博客上提出了一个思想实验，重新构建了人工智能与就业的辩论。他写道，想象一下，人工智能将导致40%的失业率。听起来像是灾难。再想象一下，人工智能将带来每周三天工作制。听起来很美好。他的核心结论是：两种情况在数学上相同。60%的人全职工作，与100%的人工作60%的时间，总工时完全相同。

塔巴罗克接受《财富》杂志深度采访时表示，灾难与美好之间的区别并非人工智能带来的原始经济效应，而在于社会如何分配人工智能带来的丰饶收益。他的计算表明，从1870年至今工作时长减少了大约40%，这种下降是趋势，而不是缺陷。乐观的看法是，人工智能只会延续这一趋势：压缩工作，增加休闲，提升生活水平。

问题所在

塔巴罗克的乐观愿景有个结构性障碍：老板。

《财富》报道发现，即便人工智能将原本八小时的工作压缩到只需两小时，管理者也不会让员工早点回家，而是用省下来的时间争取更多产出。缩短的工时没有还给员工，只会被雇主榨取。

这就是三天工作制理论的漏洞。生产率的提升真实存在，然而再分配并未发生。如果白领工作持续被压缩，而企业独占盈余，那么最重要的问题就不是人工智能能做多少工作。而是被替代的劳动者究竟何去何从。这一切和达娜护士有什么关系？劳动力市场已经朝着她的方向用脚投票。

市场早已给出答案

长期以来，护理行业因意义重大受到赞誉，因薪水微薄遭到忽视，如今却成为人工智能经济中结构性最稳固的职业。注册护士中位数收入已达到93,600美元，几乎是全美中位数49,500美元的两倍。大城市平均基本工资超过102,000美元。认证注册护士麻醉师的收入高达223,000美元。即便是旅行护士，平均收入也超过101,000美元。仅2023年以来，注册护士薪酬就增长了11%，疫情开始以来，熟练护理人员薪资上涨了26.5%。

《匹兹堡医护前线》背景设定在匹兹堡并非偶然，这座后工业城市在制造业撤离后，依靠医疗和教育实现了转型。如今这一发展轨迹正在全美上演。让达娜护士不可替代的底层力量，也在重塑美国劳动力市场。

7300万婴儿潮一代纷纷迈入古稀之年，变成医院里的患者，也从护理岗位退休，供需两端同时收紧。疫情期间，本可能十年才会出现的劳动力流失在短短36个月内集中爆发，引发大规模的职业倦怠和提前退休，推动2020年至2024年间工资上涨了26.5%。而冲击分析师、律师助理和记者的人工智能浪潮几乎没影响到护理行业，因为亲身在场、同理心和物理判断迄今无法被自动化。

现实中达娜的同行们供不应求，而且结构性短缺一时之间无法解决。这点已成为《匹兹堡医护前线》第二季的剧情，医院因一场网络攻击被迫临时请回文员莫妮卡，她认为自己被裁员主要因为医院过度数字化。

人工智能为护士赋能，而不是取代

与2026年初被人工智能冲击的金融、法律或新闻等白领职业不同，人工智能对护理工作不是威胁，而是助力。

环境式临床记录工具是能自动听取医患沟通并生成病历记录的软件，可为护士节省数小时文书工作。人工智能辅助的分诊系统帮急诊科更快确定患者的优先级。自动化监控能在人类发现之前标记生命体征变化。每一项改进都在处理长期以来护士们最厌恶的工作：写病历、重复记录和行政负担。其余部分才是真正需要护士的工作。

塔巴罗克告诉《财富》，他认为人工智能最被低估的好处正是医学。有估算称，治愈癌症将为全球经济带来50万亿美元增益。（该估算基于统计生命的经济价值，是卫生经济学和联邦成本效益分析使用的标准框架。）如果他的说法无误，且未来十年人工智能真正实现临床突破，那么执行治疗、监护患者并将结果转化为人性化语言的护士在未来经济中将更加核心，不会边缘化。

人工智能无法从剧本中抹去的工作

这正是《匹兹堡医护前线》刻画准确，而大多数就业评论忽略的细节。

达娜难以替代，不仅仅因为资质，而是在现场实时运用资质的能力。她察言观色，安抚危机中的家属，发现监护仪遗漏的细节。这些不是更好的模型就能完成的任务，都是不可简化为算法的人类特质。在2026年的市场正为此开出高价。

转行的人们大量涌入，护理专业入学人数持续攀升。为已拥有其他学位的成年人设计的护理学士速成项目，挤满了逃离人工智能冲击行业的劳动者。美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）预测，未来十年对高级执业护士的需求将激增35%，这一增幅在任何行业都堪称惊人，更何况在接近充分就业的行业。

不过理想与可行并不是一回事。护理学士速成项目通常需要12到18个月，费用可能在5万到10万美元之间。临床实习名额有限。护理学院师资短缺，所以项目每年拒绝的合格申请者成千上万。如果说护理是通往中产阶级的可靠新路径，那么这扇大门真实存在，瓶颈也很明显。

护士职业的吸引力建立在一种矛盾上，对此《匹兹堡医护前线》没有回避。推高护士薪酬的人手短缺，正是行业承受巨大压力的体现。职业倦怠，不安全的人员配比，强制加班和精神创伤，正是这些从一开始导致护士短缺。未来十年护理行业能否保持吸引力，与其说取决于薪酬，不如说取决于医院和医疗体系是否改善留住护士的工作环境。薪水能让人入行，但仅靠薪水可留不住人。

塔巴罗克的研究表明，每一轮重大自动化浪潮最终都会压缩工时并提升生活水平。如果人工智能延续这一模式，最终能站稳脚跟的劳动者并非工作未被自动化取代的人，而是转向以亲身在场、判断和人际接触为核心价值领域的人。

工厂车间造就了战后的中产阶级。2026年，美国繁荣最可靠的落脚点越来越指向护士站，美国顶尖经济学家已经解释了原因。（财富中文网）

为撰写本报道，《财富》记者使用生成式人工智能作为研究工具。报道发布前编辑以核实信息的准确性。

译者：夏林

If you want to understand where the American economy is going, don’t watch stock tickers. Watch The Pitt.

The HBO Max medical drama that became one of the most talked about shows of early 2025 doesn’t center on a brilliant surgeon or a rogue attending physician. It centers on nurses and residents grinding through a single 15-hour shift in a Pittsburgh emergency department. Nurse Dana—competent, underpaid, indispensable, and increasingly aware of her own leverage—isn’t a supporting character, as masterfully played by the Emmy-winning Katherine LaNasa. She’s the whole point.

She’s also, it turns out, a near-perfect portrait of where American prosperity is actually heading.

The thought experiment

Alex Tabarrok, a George Mason University economist, recently posed a thought experiment on his influential Marginal Revolution blog that reframes the entire AI jobs debate. Imagine, he wrote, that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds catastrophic. Now imagine AI was going to create a three-day workweek. Sounds wonderful. His punch line: Those two scenarios are mathematically identical. Sixty percent of people employed full-time produce the same aggregate working hours as 100% employed at 60% of the hours.

The difference between catastrophe and wonderland, Tabarrok told Fortune at greater length, is not about the raw economics of AI. It’s how society chooses to distribute the gains from AI abundance. His own calculations suggested that between 1870 and today, working hours fell roughly 40%—and that decline was a feature, not a bug. The optimistic case is that AI simply continues the trend: compressing work, expanding leisure, lifting living standards.

The catch

But Tabarrok’s optimistic vision has a structural obstacle: the boss.

Fortune’s own reporting found that even as AI has compressed what used to take eight hours into as little as two, executives aren’t sending workers home early. They’re filling the reclaimed time with more output. The hours aren’t being returned to workers. They’re being extracted by employers.

This is the gap in the three-day workweek theory. The productivity gains are real. The redistribution isn’t happening. And if white-collar work keeps compressing while companies pocket the surplus, the question that matters most isn’t how much work AI can do. It’s where the displaced workers actually go. What does any of this have to do with Nurse Dana? The labor market is already voting with its feet, and it’s headed in her direction.

The market is already answering

Nursing—long celebrated for its meaning and quietly dismissed for its paycheck—has emerged as the most structurally durable career in the AI economy. The median registered nurse now earns $93,600, nearly double the national median of $49,500. In major cities, average base pay has crossed $102,000. Certified registered nurse anesthetists clear $223,000. Even travel nurses average over $101,000. RN pay has grown 11% since 2023 alone, with wages in skilled nursing care up 26.5% since the start of the pandemic.

The Pitt is set in Pittsburgh for a reason: It’s a postindustrial city that reinvented itself around health care and education after manufacturing left. That arc is now playing out nationally. The forces that made Nurse Dana’s labor indispensable are the same ones reshaping the entire U.S. workforce.

Seventy-three million baby boomers are flooding into their seventies as patients while simultaneously retiring from the nursing workforce, squeezing supply and demand from both directions at once. During COVID, what might have been a decade of workforce attrition happened in the blink of 36 months or so, triggering mass burnout and early retirements that sent wages up 26.5% between 2020 and 2024. And the AI wave that is disrupting analysts, paralegals, and journalists has barely touched nursing—because presence, empathy, and physical judgment are, so far, unautomatable.

Dana’s real-world counterparts aren’t just in demand. They’re in a structural shortage with no near-term resolution. This has actually been a plot point of The Pitt’s second season, with a cyber-hack forcing the hospital to temporarily bring back hospital clerk Monica, who blames her layoff on the hospital overly digitizing.

What AI does for nurses, not to them

Unlike the white-collar careers that AI is disrupting in early 2026, such as finance, law, or journalism, AI isn’t a threat to nursing work. It’s a tailwind.

Ambient clinical documentation tools—software that listens to patient encounters and generates chart notes automatically—are already cutting hours of paperwork from nursing shifts. AI-assisted triage systems help emergency departments prioritize patients faster. Automated monitoring flags vital changes before a human might catch them. In each case, the technology is handling the tasks that nurses have long described as the worst parts of the job: charting, redundant documentation, and administrative drag. What’s left is the work that actually requires a nurse.

Tabarrok told Fortune he believes AI’s most underappreciated upside is medicine itself, citing estimates that a cure for cancer would represent a $50 trillion boost to the global economy. (The estimate draws on the economic value of statistical life, a standard framework used in health economics and federal cost-benefit analysis.) If he’s right—and AI produces genuine clinical breakthroughs in the next decade—the nurses administering those treatments, monitoring those patients, and translating those outcomes into human terms become more central to the economy, not less.

The job AI can’t write out of the script

This is the detail that The Pitt gets right that most workforce commentary misses.

Dana isn’t hard to replace just because of her credentials. She’s hard to replace because of what she does with them in real time: reading the room, deescalating a family in crisis, catching what the monitor missed. Those are not tasks awaiting a better model. They are irreducibly human. And the market is valuing them at a high rate in 2026.

Career changers are coming around. Nursing school enrollment is climbing. Accelerated bachelor’s programs—designed for adults who already hold a degree in another field—are filling with workers fleeing AI-disrupted industries. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects demand for advanced-practice nurses will surge 35% over the next decade, a number that would look extraordinary in any sector, let alone one already at effective full employment.

But aspirational and accessible aren’t the same thing. Accelerated bachelor of science in nursing programs typically take 12 to 18 months and can cost $50,000 to $100,000. Clinical placement slots are limited. Faculty shortages at nursing schools have forced programs to turn away tens of thousands of qualified applicants each year. If nursing is the new reliable path to the middle class, the door is real, but the bottleneck is significant.

And the profession’s appeal rests on a tension that The Pitt doesn’t shy away from. The same scarcity driving wages up is a symptom of a profession under enormous strain. Burnout, unsafe staffing ratios, mandatory overtime, and moral injury—these are the conditions that created the shortage in the first place. Whether nursing remains aspirational over the next decade depends less on nurses’ pay and more on whether hospitals and health systems invest in the conditions that keep nurses at the bedside. Pay got them in the door. It won’t keep them there alone.

Tabarrok’s history shows that every major wave of automation has eventually compressed working hours and raised living standards. If AI continues that pattern, the workers who land on their feet won’t be the ones whose jobs survived automation. They’ll be the ones who moved into fields where presence, judgment, and human contact are the entire product.

The factory floor built the postwar middle class. In 2026, the most reliable address for American prosperity increasingly has a nurses’ station attached—and one of the country’s top economists just told you why.

For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.

山姆·奥尔特曼的袭击者持有AI高管“暗杀名单”，专家警告：这只是开始

Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼。图片来源：Anna Moneymaker—Getty Images

OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼位于旧金山的住所，在三天内接连遭到两次袭击——先是被投掷了燃烧瓶，随后又发生枪击事件。执法部门表示，首起袭击的动机源于对AI的仇视，这一事件标志着反AI情绪的急剧升级。

上周五，一名据称在个人Substack上发布反AI言论的20岁男子，涉嫌在深夜向奥尔特曼的旧金山住所投掷了燃烧瓶。联邦起诉书指控，嫌疑人丹尼尔·莫雷诺-加马意图杀害奥尔特曼，并随后试图纵火焚烧附近的OpenAI总部。他在Substack上曾预言AI将导致人类灭绝。被捕时，执法人员还在其身上发现一份“宣言”，其中详细阐述了其反AI立场，还有一份包含多名AI行业高管的名单。

两天后，又有一名25岁和一名23岁的男子从车内向奥尔特曼住所开枪后逃离，随后被警方逮捕。目前尚不清楚两人是否专门针对奥尔特曼。

这两起事件是迄今针对AI公司高管最引人关注的袭击案例，而它们发生的大背景则是数据中心及AI物理基础设施的支持者正遭遇抵制浪潮——这种抵制有时带有暴力色彩，有时则是非暴力的。

滋生反AI情绪的原因复杂且相互交织。包括作家、插画师、配音演员和音乐人在内的创意行业从业者认为，AI技术正在被用来取代他们的工作，而且模型训练往往在未经授权或未提供补偿的情况下使用了他们的作品。与此同时，拟建数据中心附近的社区也在抵制这些设施，因为它们会消耗大量电力和水资源，在本就面临干旱或基础设施老化的地区，加剧了电网负担，并与居民争夺资源。

还有一些人担忧一种更具生存威胁的风险：随着AI系统能力不断增强，它们可能会脱离人类的控制。一些知名研究人员警告称，AI可能对人类生存构成威胁，这也助长了这种担忧。

工业革命的回声

针对奥尔特曼的袭击并非孤例，而是暴力升级趋势的一个缩影。本月早些时候，印第安纳波利斯的一名市议员因公开支持一个数据中心项目，其住宅遭人连开13枪，现场还留下字条写着“抵制数据中心”。另据Politico报道，圣路易斯附近一个仅有1.2万人口的小镇，上周投票罢免了镇议会的所有现任议员，原因是议会此前批准了一个数据中心项目。

波士顿学院（Boston College）负责战略、创新与技术事务的副院长、经济学家亚历山大·托米奇对《财富》杂志表示，针对AI的威胁升级，让人联想到一个多世纪前第二次工业革命带来的社会动荡。

托米奇表示：“我们很容易把这种事件归结为个别极端分子的行为，很可能也确实如此，但我认为，当下的情形与当年确有相似之处。技术发展速度极快，很多人因此感到焦虑，而制度建设却明显滞后。再者，无论评价好坏，山姆·奥尔特曼在某种程度上已经成了AI的‘代言人’。”

托米奇还指出，上一次出现如此迅猛的技术变革，“人类花了大约50年才逐步适应，中间还经历了两次世界大战”。

19世纪末至20世纪初的第二次工业革命引发了巨变，包括美国在内的各国人口从农村向城市大规模迁移。当时，许多原本在田间劳作的人转而进入工厂，在拥挤且往往危险的制造和纺织设施中长时间工作，同时对工厂主的不满情绪日益加剧。这种动荡催生了共产主义、无政府主义等政治思潮，也推动了早期劳工运动的发展。

托米奇认为，当下我们正经历一轮类似的技术变革，而且由于AI的快速进步，其影响可能更加深远。

他表示：“变化来得更快，波及范围也更大。”

公众对AI的态度出现转变

斯坦福大学周一发布的一份报告显示，公众对AI的看法可能正在发生转变。2025年，全球对AI驱动的产品和服务感到“担忧”的人群占比上升了2个百分点，达到52%。在受调查国家中，美国这一比例高达64%，比全球基准水平高出超过10个百分点。

这种变化在很大程度上与AI的快速发展有关。根据该报告，近三分之二的美国人认为，未来20年内，AI将导致就业岗位减少。

而AI公司高管的判断也与此不谋而合。Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代此前曾预测，AI可能会淘汰一半的白领工作。周一，Anthropic联合创始人杰克·克拉克则进一步表示，AI将带来更加深远的变革。

克拉克在Semafor世界经济会议（Semafor World Economy）上表示：“如果我们是正确的，这项技术将以极其深远的方式改变世界。它会改变企业创立方式、商业运作模式、国家安全的各个方面，甚至重塑人与人之间的关系。在这种情况下，很难想象经济不会发生同样深刻的变化。”

托米奇认为，为应对潜在的大规模失业，政府将不得不出手干预，就像上世纪美国应对贫困加剧和人口结构变化时推出社会保障制度那样。当时，多代同堂的家庭结构逐渐瓦解。这一次还可能出现其他制度性调整，例如随着正式就业变得更加不稳定，将医疗保障与雇主脱钩（目前大多数美国人正是通过雇主获得医疗保险）。

他表示：“除了确保技术落地之外，我们还必须找到一种以人为本的方法，否则已经出现的负面影响只会加剧。”

在上周五其住所首次遭袭后，OpenAI首席执行官奥尔特曼在一篇博客文章中，对持反AI观点的人表达了一定程度的理解。他表示，人们对AI的恐惧和焦虑是可以理解的，因为这项技术可能带来前所未有的社会变革。他同时呼吁出台“新政策”，以“帮助社会度过这一艰难的经济转型期”。

不过，他也强调，从整体来看，技术进步将缔造“无限美好的”未来，并呼吁围绕这一议题展开善意的批评与辩论。

他写道：“在进行辩论时，我们应该降低言辞和手段的激烈程度，无论是字面意义上还是比喻意义上，都要尽量减少类似‘爆炸’事件的发生。”（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙

审校：汪皓

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s San Francisco home was attacked twice in three days—first with a Molotov cocktail, then with gunfire—the first attack of which was motivated by hatred of artificial intelligence, according to authorities, and marks a sharp escalation in anti-AI sentiment.

On Friday, a 20-year-old man who had reportedly publicized anti-AI thoughts on a personal Substack allegedly threw a Molotov cocktail at Altman’s San Francisco home in the middle of the night. A federal complaint alleges that the suspect, Daniel Moreno-Gama, intended to kill Altman and then tried to set fire to OpenAI’s headquarters nearby. On his alleged Substack, Moreno-Gama predicted that AI would cause human extinction. When arrested, Moreno-Gama was carrying a “manifesto” that detailed his anti-AI beliefs and listed the names of other AI executives, according to the complaint.

Two days later, a 25-year-old and a 23-year-old allegedly shot at Altman’s house from a car before fleeing. The pair were later apprehended. It’s unclear if they targeted Altman specifically.

The two incidents are the most visible attacks on the CEO of an AI company to date, and yet they come amid a wave of backlash, sometimes violent and other times not, against data centers and those who support AI’s physical infrastructure.

The grievances fueling anti-AI sentiment are broad and overlapping. Workers in creative industries—writers, illustrators, voice actors, musicians—say the technology is already being used to replace them, trained on their own work without consent or compensation. Communities near planned data centers are pushing back against facilities that consume enormous amounts of electricity and water, straining local power grids and competing with residents for resources in regions already dealing with drought or aging infrastructure.

Others worry about a more existential threat: that increasingly powerful systems could slip beyond human control, a fear stoked by prominent researchers who have warned that AI poses a risk to humanity’s survival.

Echoes of the Industrial Revolution

Attacks on Altman show an escalating pattern of violence. Earlier this month, someone shot at the home of a city councilman from Indianapolis 13 times and left behind a note saying, “no data centers,” after the council member had voiced support for a data center project. A town near St. Louis of just 12,000 people also voted out all the incumbents on its town council last week after they approved a data center project, Politico reported.

Aleksandar Tomic, an economist and the associate dean for strategy, innovation, and technology at Boston College, told Fortune the escalating threats against AI are reminiscent of the upheaval ushered in by the Second Industrial Revolution more than 100 years ago.

“As tempting as it is to say this is just a disturbed individual, which most likely it is, I really think we see the parallels to then,” Tomic said. “Technology is moving really fast. A lot of people are feeling very anxious, but the institutions are lagging. And, you know, Sam Altman for better or worse, is kind of the face of AI.”

The last time there was so much technological change so quickly, “it took us about 50 years to figure it out, and two world wars,” Tomic said.

The Second Industrial Revolution, which lasted from the late 1800s until the early 1900s, spurred massive change as people migrated from the countryside to the cities across countries including the U.S. At the time, many people who had previously toiled in the fields shifted to working long shifts in cramped, and often dangerous manufacturing and textile facilities while increasingly resenting the industrialists who owned the factories. This tumult gave rise to the political philosophies of communism and anarchism, as well as the early labor movement.

Tomic argues we’re seeing a similar era of technological change now, and the changes may be even more pronounced owing to the rapid advancement of AI.

“It’s happening much quicker, and it’s happening at a much larger scale,” he said.

Public sentiment turns against AI

A Stanford report published Monday shows public sentiment may be turning against AI. The percentage of people globally who are “nervous” about AI-powered products and services increased by 2 percentage points to 52% in 2025. Among the countries surveyed, 64% of people in the U.S. reported being nervous about the technology, more than 10 percentage points above the global baseline.

Much of this may have to do with AI’s rapid development, and the fact that nearly two-thirds of Americans, according to the Stanford study, believe the technology will lead to fewer jobs over the next 20 years.

The leaders of AI companies tend to agree. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has previously predicted that half of all white-collar jobs will be eliminated owing to AI. On Monday, Anthropic cofounder Jack Clark went further, predicting sweeping changes caused by AI.

“If we’re correct, this technology really is going to change the world in a vast way. It will change how businesses start, how business is done, aspects of national security, how we even relate to one another as people, and it’s impossible to reconcile that with a world where the economy doesn’t change in substantial ways as well,” Clark said during the Semafor World Economy conference.

To tackle potential mass layoffs, Tomic said the government will have to step in, much as it did last century with Social Security during a time of widespread poverty and changing demographics in the U.S., which saw the end of multigenerational living. Other shifts may occur this time, including policies that unlink health care from a person’s employer—which is how the majority of Americans receive health care—as formal employment becomes more uncertain.

“In addition to just making sure that we do implement the technology, and so on, we need to find a way to put people first, because otherwise, I think we have already undesirable effects,” he said.

Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, expressed some empathy for those who hold anti-AI views in a blog post following the first attack on his home on Friday. In the post, Altman said the fear and anxiety around AI are justified, as it will bring about the biggest change for society, possibly ever. He also encouraged “new policy” to “help navigate through a difficult economic transition.”

Yet he also said, overall, technological progress will make the future “unbelievably good” and called for a good-faith criticism and debate on the topic.

“While we have that debate, we should de-escalate the rhetoric and tactics and try to have fewer explosions in fewer homes, figuratively and literally,” he wrote.

IMF下调全球增长预期，称中东战事令增长势头陷入停滞

Paul Wiseman，美联社 — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund，IMF）周二警告称，伊朗战争已令今年全球经济增长动能受阻，增速很可能低于2025年水平。

IMF将2026年全球经济增长预期从今年1月预测的3.3%下调至3.1%。这一增速也低于2025年3.4%的实际增幅，显示出经济正在放缓。

美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击，加之伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并对周边国家的炼油厂及其他能源基础设施实施报复性袭击，推动全球油气价格大幅上涨。

受此影响，IMF将今年全球通胀预期从2025年的4.1%上调至4.4%，也高于其今年1月对2026年作出的3.8%的预测值。

在战争爆发前，尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推行保护主义政策，对这一全球最大经济体、曾经几乎完全开放的进口市场构筑起高关税壁垒，全球经济仍展现出出人意料的韧性。冲击之所以低于预期，部分原因在于特朗普去年实际实施的关税水平低于最初宣布的幅度。

与此同时，以数据中心和人工智能为代表的科技投资热潮，以及生产率的稳步提升，也在共同支撑全球经济表现。

IMF首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙在随最新《世界经济展望》（World Economic Outlook）发布的一篇博客文章中写道：“中东战争阻断了这一增长势头。”

IMF的预测基于这样一个前提：波斯湾地区的冲突将是短暂的，且今年能源价格“仅温和上涨19%”。但情况也可能明显恶化。在一种“严重情景”下，如果能源冲击延续至明年，并迫使各国央行为遏制通胀而加息，2026年和2027年的全球经济增速可能降至2%。古兰沙写道：“尽管近期传出暂时停火的消息，但部分损害已经造成，下行风险依然高企。”

IMF将美国今年的经济增长预期小幅下调至2.3%。IMF预测，受天然气价格飙升冲击的21个欧元区成员国，整体经济增速将从2025年的1.4%降至今年的1.1%。

受冲击最严重的可能是那些债务负担沉重、较为贫穷的能源进口国家。这些国家缺乏通过增加财政支出或减税来对冲冲击的能力。IMF已将撒哈拉以南非洲地区今年的增长预期从1月预计的4.6%大幅下调至4.3%。

在这场冲突中，俄罗斯正成为一个潜在受益者。作为能源出口国，油价上涨将对其形成利好。IMF因此上调了对俄罗斯经济的增长预期。2022年俄乌冲突爆发后，俄罗斯经济曾因制裁遭受重创，如今预计将实现1.1%的增长，虽有回升，但仍处于较低水平。

与此同时，乌克兰国家银行行长安德烈·皮什尼试图将俄乌战争继续置于全球经济议题的核心。不过，他在周一接受记者采访时也指出，伊朗冲突引发的油价上涨正对乌克兰经济造成冲击。

他通过翻译表示，乌克兰3月的年化通胀率达到7.9%，明显高于此前7%的预期，主要原因在于燃料成本上升。他估计，燃料价格可能会将全年通胀率进一步推高1.5至2.8个百分点。

皮什尼还指出，在当前战争持续的背景下，乌克兰本就力图维持物价稳定，而更高的化肥和生产成本也可能进一步加剧压力。俄罗斯对乌克兰的空袭平均每3到4分钟就发生一次。

当谈到在外部因素干扰下变得复杂化的维持经济稳定这一使命时，他表示：“我们如履薄冰。”

国际货币基金组织是由191个成员国组成的贷款机构，致力于促进经济增长和金融稳定，并努力减少全球贫困人口。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙

审校：汪皓

The Iran war has stalled the world’s economic momentum this year, likely pushing growth lower compared to 2025, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday.

The IMF downgraded its forecast for global growth to 3.1% in 2026 from the 3.3% it had forecast back in January. The expected growth would mark a deceleration from a 3.4% expansion in 2025.

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — and Tehran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory strikes on oil refineries and other energy infrastructure in neighboring countries — have driven oil and gas prices sharply higher around the world.

As a result, the IMF marked up its expectation for global inflation this year to 4.4% from 4.1% in 2025 and from the 3.8% it had forecast for this year in January.

Until the war, the world economy had shown surprising resilience in the face of President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies, which built a wall of import taxes around the United States, the world’s biggest economy and once a market practically wide open to imports. The damage was less than feared partly because Trump’s tariffs last year ended up being lower than what he’d originally announced.

A tech boom, marked by massive investment in data centers and artificial intelligence, and rising productivity also combined to strengthen the world economy.

“War in the Middle East has halted this momentum,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in a blog post accompanying the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook.

The IMF’s forecast assumes that conflict in the Persian Gulf is short-lived and that energy prices rise “a moderate 19%” this year. Things could be much worse. In a “severe scenario” in which the energy shocks spill into next year and central banks are forced to raise interest rates to combat inflation, global growth could drop to 2% in 2026 and 2027. ”Despite the recent news of a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and the downside risks remain elevated,” Gourinchas wrote.

The fund slightly downgraded its forecast for U.S. growth this year to 2.3%. The 21 European countries that share the euro currency, hard hit by soaring natural gas prices, will collectively grow 1.1% this year, down from 1.4% in 2025, the IMF forecast.

Hardest hit are likely to be deeply indebted poorer countries that import energy and can’t afford to buffer their economies with stepped-up government spending and tax relief. The IMF sharply lowered the outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, to 4.3% this year from the 4.6% it had expected in January.

One winner that’s emerging from the conflict is Russia, an energy exporter that stands to benefit from higher prices. The IMF upgraded its forecast for the Russian economy, hard hit by sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, to a still-modest 1.1%.

Meanwhile, the governor of the National Bank of Ukraine has tried to keep Russia’s war in his country at the center of talks among global economic leaders. But in a Monday interview with reporters, Andriy Pyshnyy noted how higher oil prices due the war in Iran are hurting his country.

He said through a translator that annual inflation in March hit 7.9% in Ukraine, well above the forecast of 7% in large part because of higher fuel costs. He estimated that fuel prices could push up annual inflation by 1.5 percentage points to 2.8 percentage points.

Pyshnyy noted that there could also be higher fertilizer and production costs in an economy that is seeking stable prices as part of the ongoing war with Russia, which attacks Ukraine by air on average every 3 to 4 minutes.

“We are trying to walk on a razor blade,” he said of a mission complicated by external factors.

The IMF is a 191-nation lending organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty.

谁在收割美国荒漠里的算力红利？

Sharon Goldman — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

土地开发商兼电影制片人安妮塔·维尔玛-拉利安最近在人工智能数据中心领域掀起波澜。图片来源：Kevin Scanlon/Courtesy of Anitap-Verma-Lallian

哈萨扬帕牧场位于菲尼克斯以西约50英里（约80.47千米），四周矗立着巨柱仙人掌，向来是郊狼、长耳大野兔和响尾蛇的家园。镇上仅有的数百名居民，大多是冲着这里宁静的环境与澄澈的星空而定居于此。

然而，科技巨头们正打破这片沙漠的沉寂。曾经以牧场和农田为主的地区，即将变成新的科技中心，一个基本无人居住，只有一排排嗡嗡作响，消耗大量能源和水资源的GPU机柜组成的巨型人工智能数据中心。当地居民对此无能为力。

2025年12月初的一个早晨，在距离牧场近一个半小时车程的菲尼克斯市中心，马里科帕县监事会通过了一项修正案，允许哈萨扬帕牧场的一块2,000英亩（约8.09平方千米）的土地重新划定为工业用地。尽管牧场周边的数百名居民签署请愿书反对该修正案，但投票结果仍然是一致通过。

2025年5月，开发商安妮塔·维尔玛-拉利安以5,100万美元的价格买下了这片广袤的沙漠，背后有一众顶尖科技投资者的支持，包括亿万富翁风险投资家、唐纳德·特朗普的超级捐助者查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚等。他们的目标非常明确：打造巨型人工智能数据中心，吸引大型云服务商或“超大规模”科技巨头入驻，例如Meta、谷歌或OpenAI。

“目前已有六家到八家超大数据中心运营商表示有兴趣。”维尔玛-拉利安告诉《财富》杂志。在沙漠的晨光中，她作为赢家走出监事会的礼堂，身穿利落的灰色外套和黑色窄腿长裤，手持黄绿色的手包。她和律师、房地产经纪人、公关代表、私人助理和妹妹等团队成员微笑着合影留念，定格这一时刻。

43岁的维尔玛-拉利安出身印度移民家庭，从小在斯科茨代尔长大。对她来说，这次投票是她家族美国梦的又一个里程碑。20世纪90年代中期，她的父亲库尔迪普·维尔玛创立了Vermaland，如今已是亚利桑那州最大的土地与房地产公司之一。维尔玛-拉利安在土地开发领域深耕多年，凭借哈萨扬帕牧场交易，以及2025年8月以1.36亿美元出售的巴克艾地块，她已经成为亚利桑那州人工智能基础设施竞赛中的新兴力量。

随着哈萨扬帕牧场的关键决议通过，维尔玛-拉利安现在能够提交详细的分区申请与场地规划。这一巨型数据中心将建有大型建筑，内部布满GPU机架，配备全天候冷却系统，供电容量达到1.5吉瓦，相当于100多万个家庭的用电量。维尔玛-拉利安和帕里哈皮蒂亚表示，项目建设成本预计约为250亿美元。

被重塑的美国地貌与经济发展格局

类似的故事在全美不断上演。这些超大规模的数据中心项目，不仅为人工智能热潮和中美科技竞赛提供算力支撑，同时也在改变地貌，给电网与地下水系统造成压力，重塑经济发展格局。

Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta等超大数据中心运营商，以及OpenAI和Anthropic等快速增长的人工智能公司，每年都在投入数千亿美元打造人工智能业务的实体基础设施。到2030年，美国的数据中心设备和基础设施年支出预计将达到1万亿美元。

针对数据中心项目，开发商、环保人士与乡村居民之间爆发了激烈冲突。多起冲突的最终交锋点，都发生在马里科帕县监事会的礼堂这样的地方。本地居民和硅谷支持的开发商轮流上台发言，而负责审批地方条例，制定市政预算的地方官员则就数十亿美元项目的利弊展开辩论。

在过去20多年的大部分时间里，数据中心一直是科技经济里相当低调的存在，那些外观朴素、方正的建筑，默默地为网站、电子邮件和云计算提供动力，很少引起公众的关注。生成式人工智能的崛起彻底改变了这一切。数据中心对算力的极致渴求，把原本规模适中的服务器农场变成了占地数百万平方英尺，耗电量堪比中等城市，同时消耗巨量水资源的超级综合体。

政治气候也在推波助澜。特朗普政府把赢得与中国的人工智能竞赛列为核心国策，推出“人工智能行动计划”，以加速审批数据中心和扩张全美电网，而可再生能源的发展也因此陷入停滞。当前，人工智能基础设施投资在美国经济中的增长占比持续攀升，民主党和共和党都在争相证明自己可以快速落地项目。这一目标与财力雄厚的科技和基础设施投资者高度契合。

随着算力需求飙升，投资者的政治影响力也水涨船高。比如，风投资本家帕里哈皮蒂亚的播客《All-In》的联合主持人、风险投资人戴维·萨克斯，现任特朗普的“人工智能与加密货币事务负责人”，就协助指导美国在人工智能竞争力和基础设施方面的战略。

2025年，人工智能数据中心迅速升级为美国政坛的争议焦点，引发了围绕电力、水源、土地与就业问题的激烈辩论和基层抗议活动。批评者们警告称，数据中心推高电价，透支本已稀缺的水资源。两党中的支持者则认为，相关项目能够为发展滞后的社区带来经济增长与急需的税收。

图片来源：Graphic by Nicolas Rapp

目前，Meta正在路易斯安那州东北部建设的Hyperion园区耗资100亿美元，占地2,250英亩（约9.11平方千米），当地居民已开始抱怨交通拥堵与安全风险。在威斯康星州和佐治亚州，关于占用农田和污染环境的抵制运动同样此起彼伏。

维尔玛-拉利安的项目也不例外。地块周边社区的居民担心唯一水源的井水受到影响，也担心噪音、施工和不断上涨的能源成本会影响乡村沙漠生活方式和房产价值。在美国的人工智能建设过程中，这是悄然展开却一触即发的冲突缩影。

“被遗忘的继子”

当维尔玛-拉利安与团队在马里科帕县监事会的礼堂外庆祝时，76岁的凯西·弗莱彻与78岁的罗恩·弗莱彻却独自站在一旁。2020年，这对退休夫妇和祖父母从加利福尼亚州搬到亚利桑那州，原本只想在哈萨扬帕牧场旁一英亩的土地上静度晚年，享受美丽沙漠风光和日落景致。

他们对投票结果并不意外，但很沮丧。凯西表示，在托诺帕这个管理松散的乡村社区，居民几乎没有钱、时间，也没有政治影响力组织发起有效的反对。

“我们唯一可以做的就是恳求参会的人们。”凯西说，她和罗恩是当天唯一驱车一个多小时参会的居民。“我们就像被忽视的继子，没有人理我们，他们以为在这里能想干什么就干什么。”她说，“我们想让大家知道‘努力抗争有用’，但太难了。”

弗莱彻夫妇的邻居谢丽斯·坎贝尔经营着一家传统火鸡孵化场，曾经在网上发起请愿，围绕潜在的光和噪音污染对环境的影响、交通和基础设施压力，以及对房地产价值的负面影响等问题征集签名，最终有近200个签名。

38岁的坎贝尔出生在马里科帕县，童年在菲尼克斯西北部的郊区瑟普赖斯市度过，“那时还有橙园、沙漠和一个大鸵鸟场”。她在线上听证会上表示，担心工业化的入侵会破坏散养火鸡的自然习性。她说：“我们不想要混凝土包围的柏油路，只会加剧夏季热岛效应。”她直言，修建通往此地的高流量主干道，对乡村居民和她的火鸡来说都是一场“毁灭性的噩梦”。

51岁的托尼亚·皮尔索尔是五个孩子的母亲，自1999年起就住在托诺帕，经营着一家小型犬繁育店。她花了几个周末挨家挨户走访，收集了100个签名反对该项目。“我最担心的是水，我们这里用的都是井水。”她说。

维尔玛-拉利安的水务律师米歇尔·范·夸特姆表示，项目完成后可能会与区域公共水务公司Global Water Resources合作，或由租户自行解决水源问题，包括开凿水井、建设储水设施或回收系统等。她表示，随着场地规划和入驻企业洽谈，用水量估算将更加明确，但她强调：“水源必须符合亚利桑那的水资源法规，包括项目所在地菲尼克斯活跃管理区严格的地下水管理条例。”

维尔玛-拉利安承诺，开发时将与住宅区保持距离，保留冲沟。冲沟是天然的沙漠通道，平时干涸，季风暴雨时会有大量水流。她明白当地居民“更希望建住宅，或者保持原貌”，并表示会采取“审慎”且“具有美学价值”的设计规划。

维尔玛-拉利安的土地规划律师温迪·里德尔承认，居民往往对长期徒步、骑马或越野的开阔土地有深厚的情感联结，即便这些土地归私人所有。她还指出，场地规划审查的后续阶段，托诺帕的居民依然有机会发表意见，届时开发商通常会就建筑高度及退距、绿化走廊等细节与邻里进行协商。

资本、权力与沙漠的未来

维尔玛-拉利安与丈夫和一双儿女居住在亚利桑那州的天堂谷，可能有一些硅谷人脉，但也带着好莱坞光环，这让一些当地的乡村居民感到不适。2025年，她因买下《老友记》演员马修·佩里溺水身亡的那处太平洋帕利塞兹的豪宅而名噪一时。2023年，她成立了电影制作公司Camelback Productions，还计划在离数据中心不远的亚利桑那的另一处房产上建造电影工作室。

在驱车前往哈萨扬帕牧场的路上，维尔玛-拉利安跟与她们父女二人合作数十年的房地产经纪人斯科特·特鲁伊特经过了她拥有的一块又一块土地。特鲁伊特指着道路两边的地块，细数维尔玛-拉利安多年来买卖的地产，目前已经成为住宅开发项目、仓库、零售店和加油站。

图片来源：Graphic by Nicolas Rapp

哈萨扬帕牧场土地之前的所有者，曾经为数千套住宅的大型社区项目取得了住宅用地规划许可，却因为2008年市场崩盘，导致项目停滞不前。即便后来市场复苏，该项目又遇到了新的阻碍。大约三年前，亚利桑那州的水资源监管机构停止发放新的供水保障证明，这是大型住宅建设项目的必备条件，也让原本的住宅开发计划难以重启。

这一监管限制并不适用于数据中心等工业用途，此类项目即便用水量等于甚至超过住宅开发项目，在分区规划审批时也无需获得供水保障证书。正是这一差异为维尔玛-拉利安打开了大门，她可以在无需事先证明长期供水能力的前提下，以其他用途收购这块土地。

对维尔玛-拉利安来说，该地块满足多项关键条件：毗邻帕洛弗迪核电站；附近就是天然气管线，未来新建燃气电厂能够为数据中心直接提供电力；最重要的是规模优势。这块地面积约2,000英亩（约8.09平方千米），足够建设大型数据中心园区。维尔玛-拉利安表示，在菲尼克斯西谷，这样面积的地块日益稀缺。“如今这么大的私有地块所剩无几。”她说，亚利桑那只有大约17%的土地归私人所有，其余都由州政府、联邦政府或美洲原住民部落掌控。

随着开发建设自菲尼克斯一路向西推进，西谷的变化几乎不可避免。距离此处不远，比尔·盖茨早前也购入了大量土地计划打造名为Belmont的智慧城市，包含数万套住宅、自动驾驶汽车与高速数字基础设施（目前尚未动工）。离托诺帕和哈萨扬帕牧场最近的巴克艾市，人口已经从五年前的9.1万人增至13万人，新冠疫情期间新增数千名居民。开市客已经入驻，塔吉特也即将开业。

尽管维尔玛-拉利安的项目遭遇部分社区的抵制，但总体而言，亚利桑那州的氛围支持增长，特鲁伊特说：“人人都想在这里建设数据中心。”西谷地区近期大量易手的土地原本都是农地。随着地价攀升和其他压力，农业经营越发难以为继，很多年迈的农场主又无人接班。“他们只能守着土地。”他指着路边的奶牛场说，“最终农场会被开发项目取代，已经卖了不少地。”

人工智能数据中心热潮吸引了一众科技投资者，他们认为土地与电力是人工智能经济的下一个瓶颈，因而也是下一个风口。曾经炫耀与白宫往来密切的亿万富翁投资者查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚表示，与维尔玛-拉利安合作的哈萨扬帕牧场是他首次投资数据中心。两人通过共同好友，也是金融科技创始人的伊桑·阿加瓦尔结识。

“除了自有住房，我从不投资房地产。”帕里哈皮蒂亚坦言，“在意识到‘能源加数据中心’结合的价值之后，我才将其纳入可以看懂的投资领域。”

在他看来，人工智能基础设施狂飙堪比当年互联网与移动技术崛起，不过在早期投资浪潮中，能源并非成败关键。他说：“在人工智能时代，能源成了核心资产，而数据中心正是能源最直接的载体。”

大肆建设的算力设施的核心疑问

维尔玛-拉利安很欣赏哈萨扬帕牧场周围的景色，不过她仍然认为自己的开发是务实之举。

她提到自己在斯科茨代尔的一处公寓楼的经历，当地曾经规划建设的一栋高层建筑会遮挡居民看向驼峰山的景观。“大家都很不满，但项目还是推进了。”她说，“建的是一家对社区有益的酒店，后来为城市带来了旅游收入。”

谈到哈萨扬帕牧场，她表示：“必须考虑项目对社区的更大福祉。分区规划一成不变会限制社区适应发展，很难实现负责任地增长并规划未来需求。”尽管如此，维尔玛-拉利安也承认，托诺帕的居民“可能只是把我当成一心想赚钱的开发商。”

她的野心不止于数据中心。随着诸多好莱坞制作项目离开加利福尼亚州，维尔玛-拉利安计划把另一块靠近10号州际公路，离哈萨扬帕牧场不远的地块，开发成包含电影制片厂、室内游乐园和一座小型数据中心的综合设施。

“从加利福尼亚州的伯班克开车过来大约四个半小时。”她说，自己现在大约四分之一的时间用于电影制作。她是2024年电影《Doin’It》的制片人，该片在西南偏南电影节（SXSW）首映；还有刚杀青的莎士比亚改编电影《Patel》，由卡尔·佩恩主演。最近她在英国伦敦完成了跟《魔法坏女巫》主演辛西娅·埃里沃合作的项目，还有两部新片正在筹备中。

人工智能行业的发展速度惊人，尽管数十亿美元正在投入新设施，但核心疑问依然存在，即企业当前大肆建设的算力设施，是否能够在预期时间内匹配市场需求。如果需求放缓、转向或进一步集中，数据中心热潮可能就会变成泡沫。但在地产行业摸爬滚打数十年的维尔玛-拉利安表示，她对数据中心市场下行并不担心。她认为，即便需求发生变化，她开发的地块仍然可以转为制造、物流或其他工业用途。

在投票结束后，维尔玛-拉利安长舒了一口气。她早就知道有反对项目的请愿和电子邮件，虽然自信能够获胜，但结果远非板上钉钉。近期，在菲尼克斯东南郊繁华的郊区钱德勒市，另一座人工智能数据中心项目尽管得到了亚利桑那州的前参议员基尔斯滕·西内马的支持，但还是在居民的强烈反对下被市政府否决。

在马里科帕县监事会的听证会上取得胜利，又快速考察了哈萨扬帕牧场后，维尔玛-拉利安启程返回洛杉矶，她还有一场与Netflix的会议和一位投资者的电话。

而在托诺帕，凯西·弗莱彻仍然表示反对项目，但对维尔玛-拉利安并无恶意。弗莱彻说：“我认为她是一位非常成功的年轻女性。祝她一切顺利，我只是不想自家后院建起数据中心。”

对社区的其他人来说，失落感是切身的。托尼亚·皮尔索尔表示：“以前这里可以看到银河，这是我们搬来的原因。”她虽然自认是支持资本主义的保守派，但看着宛若天外的沙漠生态系统被工业基座覆盖，依然让她感到心痛。她说，“我忍不住想哭。

编者语：

·人工智能数据中心的对水资源和电力的巨大消耗，正与有限的水资源和电网承载力产生直接冲突。在评估人工智能数据中心等基建规划时，必须将水资源压力与能源结构作为与土地、网络同等重要的前置约束条件。

·科技资本承诺的税收与就业增长，与当地居民切身感受的房产贬值、环境破坏（光、噪音污染）及生活方式冲击形成鲜明对比。若缺乏有效的社区沟通与利益补偿机制，技术进步可能加剧本地社群与外来资本的割裂，这是期望以科技经济带动增长的地区需前瞻性应对的治理课题。

·万亿美元级别的投资基于对人工智能需求持续爆发的预期，但若需求不及预期，这些高耗能设施可能成为“搁浅资产”。这要求投资者与政策制定者在数据中心建设热潮中保持风险意识。（财富中文网）

财富中文网对原文有删减和调整

译者：Feb

编辑：魏雨彤

凭借新型无人机，乌克兰在战场上占据优势，并重创俄罗斯石油产业

Jason Ma — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

2026年3月27日，俄罗斯乌斯季-卢加港综合体内的多个储油罐起火燃烧。图片来源：Vantor via Getty Images

乌克兰在无人机技术领域的持续创新，不仅让乌军在战场上占据优势，还让俄罗斯的军事力量与经济遭受重创。

尽管四年前俄乌冲突爆发时，俄罗斯在兵力上占据明显优势，但这一优势已被西方援助和新型无人机的出现抵消，如今绝大多数伤亡均由无人机造成。

俄乌双方都在争相部署升级版无人机，但乌克兰的创新速度似乎更快，近期已占据上风。

美国战争研究所（ISW）上周在一份报告中指出：“最新证据表明，俄军在战场上接连受挫，而乌克兰近期在无人机领域的创新，已让乌方逐步占据战场优势。”

2025年俄军已遭遇触目惊心的人员伤亡，据估算月均伤亡人数达3万人。无人机技术的持续升级，令俄军今年以来的伤亡率较去年进一步攀升。

此外，美国战争研究所指出，乌克兰依托新型武器装备，对俄罗斯防空系统发动更多了打击，并拦截了更多俄方无人机。这直接导致俄军推进速度放缓，为乌军发起反击创造了条件。

该研究所补充称：“乌克兰在防御作战中连战连捷，加之无人机适配性升级与中程打击行动的开展，多重效应形成合力，正持续削弱俄军前线部队的作战能力。”

《基辅邮报》报道称，乌克兰近期已部署一款搭载人工智能技术的无人机，该无人机具备抗干扰能力，隐身性能更优，同时拥有更远的航程。

美国战争研究所指出，与之形成鲜明对比的是，俄罗斯在无人机领域的发展已明显落后。俄方将重心放在少数几款机型的量产上，而非技术创新，同时俄军高级指挥官也对技术变革持抵触态度。

该报告指出，乌克兰本土无人机产业的技术创新，得到了西方盟友的支持。美国中央情报局前局长、退役上将戴维·彼得雷乌斯（David Petraeus）近期预测，乌克兰未来将拥有“自由世界中最重要的军工综合体”。

他在接受《World at Stake》节目采访时表示：“乌克兰正在生产尖端无人系统，其应用领域已不局限于空中，还覆盖陆地和海上作战场景。”

彼得雷乌斯指出，乌克兰在软硬件融合方面的表现极其突出，且始终保持着高速稳定的创新节奏。软件更新周期不到一周，硬件升级每隔几周进行一次。

乌方新型无人机已深入俄罗斯境内，美国战争研究所指出，乌方正对俄罗斯能源产业造成严重破坏。

报告特别强调了乌军针对黑海新罗西斯克港，以及波罗的海石油枢纽普里莫尔斯克港和乌斯季-卢加港的一系列无人机袭击。此前，这些港口承担着俄罗斯约45%的海上原油出口任务。

美国战争研究所援引相关报道称，针对普里莫尔斯克港的无人机袭击烧毁了价值2亿美元的原油。乌斯季-卢加港的石化产品石脑油出口量，在3月最后一周暴跌约70%。

美国战争研究所表示：“乌克兰正利用俄罗斯防空力量部署过度分散的弱点，持续扩大对俄石油基础设施的远程打击行动，重创了俄罗斯的石油出口能力。”（财富中文网）

译者：中慧言-王芳

Ukraine’s constant innovation in drone technology is giving its military an edge on the battlefield, dealing major blows to Russia’s army and economy.

While Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago with superior numbers, that advantage has since been neutralized by Western aid and the emergence of new drones, which now account for the vast majority of casualties.

Both sides have scrambled to deploy upgraded versions, but Ukraine appears to be innovating faster and has recently gained the upper hand.

“Recent evidence suggests that not only are Russian forces facing setbacks on the battlefield, but also that recent Ukrainian drone innovations have shifted the battlefield advantage in Ukraine’s favor,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a note last week.

Drone improvements have contributed to higher Russian casualty rates so far this year compared to 2025, which had already seen staggering losses estimated at 30,000 a month.

In addition, Ukraine’s new weapons have enabled more strikes on Russian air-defense systems as well as more interceptions of Russian drones, according to ISW. As a result, Russian advances have slowed down, allowing Ukraine to counterattack.

“Ukraine’s defensive successes, drone adaptations, and midrange strike campaign are creating compounding effects that are degrading Russian frontline forces,” ISW added.

The Kyiv Post reported that Ukraine has recently fielded an AI-enabled drone that’s immune to jamming, is harder to detect, and has longer range.

By contrast, Russian drones have lagged as the Kremlin focuses on mass production of a few models over innovation, while senior military commanders have also been resistant to change, ISW said.

The note pointed out that Ukraine’s domestic drone industry developed the innovations with help from Western allies. But former CIA director and retired Gen. David Petraeus recently predicted that Ukraine will possess “the most important military-industrial complex in the free world.”

“It is producing cutting-edge unmanned systems, not just in the air, but on the ground and at sea,” he said an interview with World at Stake.

Ukraine’s integration of hardware and software is also extraordinary, Petraeus noted, adding the pace of innovation is constant. Software updates come in less than a week, and hardware changes come every few weeks.

New drones have reached deep into Russian territory, and ISW said Ukraine is inflicting major damage on the Russian energy sector.

It highlighted a series of drone attacks on Novorossiysk on the Black Sea as well as on the Baltic Sea oil hubs of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, which previously handled about 45% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports.

ISW pointed to reports that the drone strikes on Primorsk burned $200 million of oil, while exports of the petrochemical naphtha from Ust-Luga fell by about 70% in the last week of March.

“Ukraine’s expanding long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure is exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses and significantly damaging Russian oil export capabilities,” ISW said.

哥伦比亚批准扑杀在中部地区自由活动的“可卡因河马”

Manuel Rueda，美联社 — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

这些河马是当年大毒枭巴勃罗·埃斯科巴引入的一小群河马的后代，如今已在野外繁衍生息。照片摄于2023年4月19日，地点为哥伦比亚安蒂奥基亚省多拉达尔的一处湖泊，毗邻曾是埃斯科巴私人动物园的纳波莱斯庄园主题公园。哥伦比亚正推进将70头河马转移至墨西哥和印度的保护区，但治理这位已故毒枭留下的这一特殊“遗产”所带来的生态问题，成本高达350万美元。埃斯科巴在上世纪80年代末将少量非洲河马引入哥伦比亚，1993年在他去世后，这些河马在安蒂奥基亚省炎热潮湿的地区自由繁殖，数量现已超过150头，当地环保部门一直无力控制其种群规模。图片来源：RAUL ARBOLEDA/AFP via Getty Images

哥伦比亚官员周一批准了一项计划，拟对数十头在该国中部地区自由活动的河马实施扑杀。这些河马最早由臭名昭著的毒枭巴勃罗·埃斯科巴引入，多年来不断繁殖，不仅威胁当地居民安全，也挤占本土物种的生存空间。

环境部长伊雷内·贝莱斯表示，过去用于控制河马数量的措施成本高昂且效果有限，包括对部分个体实施绝育或将其转移至动物园。她表示，此次批准的措施将涉及80多头河马，但未说明扑杀何时开始。

贝莱斯表示：“如果不采取行动，我们将无法控制其种群数量。为了保护生态系统，我们必须这样做。”

哥伦比亚是非洲以外唯一拥有野生河马种群的国家。这些河马是上世纪80年代埃斯科巴引入的四头河马的后代。当时他在马格达莱纳河谷修建了占地广阔的纳波莱斯庄园，内设私人动物园和专用飞机跑道，这里曾作为他的乡间据点。

哥伦比亚国立大学（Colombia’s National University）发布的一项研究估计，2022年该国约有170头河马在野外活动。

近来，人们在距离该庄园以北100多公里的地区也发现了河马的踪迹。

哥伦比亚环境部门表示，这些大型哺乳动物对当地居民构成威胁，已有村民在农场和河流中与其遭遇。同时，它们还与海牛等本土物种争夺食物和生存空间。

尽管问题严峻，但这些河马也逐渐成为一种旅游资源。纳波莱斯庄园周边的村庄纷纷推出“观赏河马”旅游项目，并售卖河马主题的纪念品。

这些河马如今也成了纳波莱斯庄园的一大看点。该庄园在政府没收埃斯科巴资产后被改建为主题公园，设有游泳池、水上滑梯以及动物园，园内还饲养着多种非洲动物。

哥伦比亚的动物保护人士一直以来反对扑杀河马这一做法，认为这些动物同样有生存的权利。他们还指出，以暴力手段解决问题，对这个经历了数十年内部冲突的国家来说，是一个不良示范。

参议员、动物权利活动人士安德烈亚·帕迪利亚将此次扑杀计划称为“残忍”的决定，并指责政府只想走捷径。她曾参与推动禁止斗牛的立法。

帕迪利亚在X平台上写道：“杀戮和屠杀永远不可接受。这些都是健康的动物，却成了政府失职的受害者。”

过去12年间，历经三届政府，哥伦比亚一直尝试通过给部分河马实施绝育来控制其种群数量。但由于捕捉这些危险动物并进行手术成本高昂，始终难以大规模推进相关措施。

此外，由于哥伦比亚的河马基因库有限，且可能携带疾病，将它们送回非洲原生栖息地一直被认为不具备可行性。（财富中文网）

翻译：郝秀

审校：汪皓

Colombian officials on Monday authorized a plan to cull dozens of hippos roaming freely through a region in the center of the country, where they threaten villagers and displace native species years after notorious drug lord Pablo Escobar brought in the first ones.

Environment Minister Irene Vélez said previous methods to control their population have been expensive and unsuccessful, including neutering some of the animals or moving them to zoos. Vélez said up to 80 hippos would be affected by the measure. She did not say when hunting would begin.

“If we don’t do this we will not be able to control the population,” Vélez said. “We have to take this action to preserve our ecosystems.”

Colombia is the only country outside of Africa with a wild hippo population. The hippos are the descendants of four brought to the country in the 1980s by Escobar as he built a private zoo in Hacienda Nápoles, a gigantic ranch in the Magdalena River valley with a private landing strip that served as his rural abode.

A study published by Colombia’s National University estimated that around 170 hippos were roaming freely in the country in 2022.

Recently, hippos have been spotted in areas that are more than 100 kilometers (60 miles) north of the ranch.

Environmental authorities in Colombia say the mammals pose a threat to villagers who have encountered them in farms and rivers. They also compete for food and space against local species such as river manatees.

Despite the challenges, the hippos have also become a tourist attraction, with residents of villages surrounding Hacienda Nápoles offering hippo spotting tours and selling hippo-themed souvenirs.

The hippos are also one of the main attractions at the Nápoles ranch, which was confiscated by Colombia’s government as it seized Escobar’s properties. It now functions as a theme park, featuring swimming spools, water slides and a zoo that includes several other African species.

Animal welfare activists in Colombia have long opposed proposals to kill the hippos, arguing they deserve to live. They say that addressing the problem through violence sets a poor example for a country that has gone through decades of internal conflict.

Andrea Padilla, a senator and animal rights activist who helped draft a law against bullfights in Colombia, described the plan to cull the hippos as a “cruel” decision, and accused government officials of trying to take the easy way out.

“Killings and massacres will never be acceptable,” Padilla wrote on X. “These are healthy creatures who are victims of the negligence” of government entities.

Over the past 12 years, spanning three presidential administrations, Colombia has tried to neuter some of the hippos in a bid to reduce their population. But the initiatives have had limited scope due to high costs that come with capturing the dangerous animals and performing surgeries on them.

Because Colombia’s hippos come from a limited gene pool and could carry diseases, taking them back to their natural habitat in Africa has been considered unfeasible.

20岁AI末日论者向山姆·奥尔特曼投掷燃烧瓶

Juan Lozano，Lekan Oyekanmi，美联社 — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

法庭文件显示，一名被控向OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼位于旧金山的住所投掷燃烧瓶的男子，持反人工智能立场，曾撰文称人工智能对人类构成威胁，并宣称“我们即将面临灭绝危机”。

警方称，当局指控20岁的丹尼尔·莫雷诺-加马（Daniel Moreno-Gama）于上周五凌晨4时许投掷燃烧装置，导致奥尔特曼住宅外的一扇大门起火，随后徒步逃离现场。不到一小时后，莫雷诺-加马又前往OpenAI总部，据称扬言要烧毁整栋大楼。

周一上午，美国联邦调查局（FBI）探员前往莫雷诺-加马位于得克萨斯州休斯敦郊区斯普林的住所，在现场搜查数小时后离开。联邦检察官已对其提起公诉，罪名包括非法持有未登记枪支，以及使用爆炸物破坏和损毁财物。

美国联邦调查局休斯敦办事处证实探员已抵达现场，但拒绝进一步置评。邻居们称，房主“为人十分和善”，还参与教会活动。

刑事起诉书虽未直接提及奥尔特曼与OpenAI，但双方均已确认是本次袭击的目标。据报道，此次事件未造成人员伤亡。

法庭文件显示，莫雷诺-加马上周五被捕时，执法人员在其身上发现了一份文件。该文件“表明他反人工智能的立场，并提及多家人工智能公司高管”。刑事起诉书指出，该文件称人工智能对人类构成威胁，并宣称“我们即将面临灭绝危机”。

当局指控莫雷诺-加马从得克萨斯州的住所前往旧金山，并于上周五凌晨抵达山姆·奥尔特曼的住宅。

刑事起诉书所附的监控视频画面显示，一名身着深色连帽衫与长裤的男子（联邦调查局指认其为莫雷诺-加马）走向奥尔特曼住宅的车道。多段监控视频画面显示，该男子投掷燃烧瓶，瓶体落在金属大门顶端并引发小规模火情。

OpenAI总部外的监控视频画面显示，莫雷诺-加马抓起一把椅子，猛砸玻璃门。当局表示，大楼安保人员上前制止了他。起诉书称，安保人员向调查人员表示，莫雷诺-加马“大致声称”自己来到总部是为了“烧毁大楼，并杀害楼内所有人”。

旧金山警方逮捕了莫雷诺-加马，并查获了“燃烧装置、一罐煤油、一个蓝色打火机和一份文件”。周一，莫雷诺-加马因多项州级罪名被羁押在旧金山县监狱，罪名包括持有或制造易燃物或燃烧装置，以及纵火罪。

官员称，莫雷诺-加马在这份文件中不仅讨论了反人工智能立场，还对山姆·奥尔特曼发出威胁。

当局指控称，莫雷诺-加马在文件中写道：“此外，如果我要鼓动他人杀人犯罪，就必须以身作则，证明自己的诚意。”

多家曾就人工智能的社会风险发出严正警告的倡议组织，对这起暴力事件予以谴责。

生命未来研究所（Future of Life Institute）总裁兼首席执行官安东尼·阿吉雷（Anthony Aguirre）在上周五发表的书面声明中表示：“围绕人工智能未来展开的讨论中，绝不容忍任何形式的暴力与恐吓行为。”

另一组织PauseAI发布声明称，该嫌疑人并非组织成员，仅在约两年前加入了其在社交平台Discord上的论坛，并发布了约34条消息。这些消息中，虽无明确煽动暴力的内容，但有一条被标记为“表意模糊”。

Discord周一表示，已因“平台外行为”封禁了莫雷诺-加马的账号。

在住所遇袭数小时后，奥尔特曼在一篇回应针对自身人身威胁的博客文章中，发布了一张丈夫与年幼孩子的照片。

奥尔特曼在文中写道：“我们向来低调、注重隐私，但这次，我选择分享这张照片，希望能劝阻下一个试图向我家投掷燃烧瓶的人，无论他对我抱有怎样的看法。”

他补充道，“对人工智能的恐惧和焦虑完全可以理解”，但关键在于“缓和言论与行动，尽量减少针对家庭的爆炸事件，无论是象征意义上的，还是实际意义上的。”

奥尔特曼是硅谷人工智能领域的领军人物，其对人工智能的发展前景与潜在风险的洞察，一直是业界关注的焦点。此次袭击发生前数日，《纽约客》刊发了一篇深度调查报道，其中提及部分民众对他及其执掌的OpenAI的诸多担忧。（财富中文网）

洛萨诺从休斯敦发回报道。美联社驻罗德岛州普罗维登斯记者马特·奥布莱恩对本文亦有贡献。

译者：中慧言-王芳

The man accused of throwing a Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s home in San Francisco was opposed to artificial intelligence, writing about AI’s purported risk to humanity and “our impending extinction,” according to court documents.

Authorities allege 20-year-old Daniel Moreno-Gama threw the incendiary device about 4 a.m. Friday, setting an exterior gate at Altman’s home alight before fleeing on foot, police said. Less than an hour later, Moreno-Gama allegedly went to OpenAI’s headquarters and reportedly threatened to burn down the building.

On Monday morning, FBI agents went to Moreno-Gama’s home in Spring, Texas, a suburb of Houston, where they spent several hours before leaving. He has been charged by federal prosecutors with possession of an unregistered firearm and damage and destruction of property by means of explosives.

The FBI’s office in Houston confirmed agents were at the scene but declined further comment. Neighbors described the homeowners as “very nice people” who were involved with their church.

The criminal complaint does not name Altman or OpenAI but both have confirmed they were the targets of the attack. No injuries were reported.

When Moreno-Gama was arrested Friday, officials found a document on him in which he “identified views opposed to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the executives of various AI companies,” court documents say. The document discussed AI’s purported risk to humanity and “our impending extinction,” according to the criminal complaint.

Authorities allege Moreno-Gama traveled from his home in Texas to San Francisco and visited Altman’s home early Friday morning.

Surveillance video images included in the criminal complaint show a person dressed in a dark hoodie and pants that the FBI alleges is Moreno-Gama approaching the driveway of Altman’s home. In various images, the person can be seen tossing the Molotov cocktail, which landed at the top of a metal gate and started a small fire.

Surveillance video images from outside OpenAI’s headquarters allegedly show Moreno-Gama grabbing a chair and using it to hit a set of glass doors. Authorities said Moreno-Gama was approached by the building’s security personnel, who told investigators he “stated in sum and substance” that he came to the headquarters “to burn it down and kill anyone inside,” according to the complaint.

San Francisco police arrested Moreno-Gama and recovered “incendiary devices, a jug of kerosene, a blue lighter, and a document.” Moreno-Gama was being held Monday in the San Francisco County Jail on various state charges, including possession or manufacture of combustible material or an incendiary device and arson.

The document in which Moreno-Gama discussed his opposition to AI also made threats against Altman, officials said.

“Also if I am going to advocate for others to kill and commit crimes, then I must lead by example and show that I am fully sincere in my message,” Moreno-Gama is alleged by authorities to have written in the document.

Advocacy groups that have issued grave warnings about AI’s risks to society condemned the violence.

Anthony Aguirre, president and CEO of the Future of Life Institute, said in a written statement Friday that “violence and intimidation of any kind have no place in the conversation about the future of AI.”

Another group, PauseAI, said in a statement that the suspect had no role in the group but joined its forum on the social media platform Discord about two years ago and posted about 34 messages there, none containing explicit calls to violence but one that was flagged as “ambiguous.”

Discord said Monday that it has banned Moreno-Gama for “off-platform behavior.”

Hours after the attack on his house, Altman posted a photo of his husband and their toddler in a blog post addressing the threats against him.

“Normally we try to be pretty private, but in this case I am sharing a photo in the hopes that it might dissuade the next person from throwing a Molotov cocktail at our house, no matter what they think about me,” Altman wrote.

He added that “fear and anxiety about AI is justified” but it was important to “de-escalate the rhetoric and tactics and try to have fewer explosions in fewer homes, figuratively and literally.”

Altman has become a preeminent voice in Silicon Valley on the promise and potential dangers of artificial intelligence. The attack comes days after The New Yorker published an in-depth investigation that touched on concerns some people have about him and the company.

Lozano reported from Houston. Associated Press journalist Matt O’Brien contributed to this story from Providence, Rhode Island.

《纽约时报》称已确认中本聪身份，是真的吗？

Jeff John Roberts — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

布达佩斯市为比特币发明者中本聪所立的雕像。图片来源：Janos Kummer—Getty Images

自从比特币问世以来，全世界从未停止过对其发明人中本聪的真实身份的探索，期间还闹出过好几次乌龙。比如2014年，美国《新闻周刊》抛出了一篇轰动性的报道，称比特币的真正发明者是一个叫多里安・中本的 64 岁老人，此人大隐隐于市，就住在洛杉矶郊外。2024年，HBO也拍了一部纪录片，言之凿凿地称中本聪的真身是一位加拿大的青年软件开发者。但人们很快意识到这是不可能的，因为这个开发者太年轻了，光是年龄就不可能对得上。

最近，传奇调查记者约翰・卡雷鲁也对中本聪的真实身份较起了真。卡雷鲁是一个调查能力极强的记者，他曾因揭了露女骗子伊丽莎白・霍姆斯的血液检测公司Theranos造假而名声大噪。上周三，《纽约时报》发表了卡雷鲁的长篇调查报道，他声称自己终于破解了这一谜团，证实中本聪不是别人，正是英国著名计算机科学家亚当・巴克。

这个猜测并非毫无道理。巴克在币圈一直是一个很有影响力的人物，同时也是数字货币Hashcash的发明者，而且Hashcash的发明还要早于比特币。另外，巴克也是一家名叫Blockstream的公司的CEO，这是一家早期的比特币基础设施公司。另外他现在还经营着一家通过发行股票来炒币的公司。

在这篇长篇报道中，卡雷鲁仔细分析了巴克的商业活动，堆砌了大量间接证据来支撑自己的结论。报道通篇没有放出任何直拉证据，只是罗列了一堆巴克与中本聪的共同特征，比如使用英式拼写，信奉自由主义理念，参与过密码朋克运动，以及使用标点符号（比如连字符）的习惯相同等等。

卡雷鲁表示，有人可能会对此提出反对意见，因为业内都知道，中本聪曾与巴克有过大量通信往来。不过这一点也不难解释——那些邮件其实都是巴克写给自己的，是他精心设计的骗局，目的就是误导那些试图揭露他身份的人。

虽然这篇报道看起来很像那么回事儿，但是我们别忘了，记者跟普通人一样，也很容易陷入先入为主的偏见。有时人们相信了一件事后，就会下意识地寻找能印证这个观点的证据，而无视那些有可能推翻这个观点的事实。之前《新闻周刊》和HBO就是犯了这种“先射箭后画靶子”的错误，现在看来，强如卡雷鲁的调查记者也未必能够免俗。

比如，虽然巴克确实曾经参与过密码朋克运动，他与中本聪也有相同的政治理念，但是这两点几乎是最早玩比特币的人的共性。至于巴克与中本聪相似的行文习惯，就连卡雷鲁自己也承认，这一点并不能作为决定性证据。

就在卡雷鲁拼命搜罗所有蛛丝马迹来印证自己的猜测时，他却刻意回避了一个就在自己眼皮底下，而且更具嫌疑的人选。此人名叫尼克・萨博，也是一位计算机大师。巴克有的那些特点，萨博都有，就连他的名字的的首字母NS也恰好是中本聪英文名首字母的倒写（SN）。另外，如果萨博是中本聪的话，那些与巴克之间的往来邮件也就更好解释了。

具有讽刺意味的是，卡雷鲁也提到，《纽约时报》2015年曾发表过一篇报道，该报道说萨博就是中本聪。但是卡雷鲁对这则报道只是一笔带过，压根没有深究。这种态度显然是有问题的。因为那篇报道的作者纳撒尼尔・波珀与币圈的渊源极深，他不仅是比特币文化早期权威史书《数字黄金》的作者，还与几乎所有币圈早期核心人物都有过深入交往。

最后，还有一点似乎能说明卡雷鲁陷入了认识偏差无法自拔。他抓住了自己与巴克会面时的几个片段不放，声称这位“疑似的比特币发明者”在面对尖锐问题时会面露慌乱，语焉不详。卡雷鲁由此认为这是巴克心虚了，却完全忽视了另一个同样合理的解释。

也就是在上周三，巴克再次否认了自己是中本聪。一直以来，巴克都喜欢在这类采访中戏耍记者。如果卡雷鲁足够细心的话，他本该注意到，巴克在HBO的纪录片中也有过完全相同的表现。每当采访者觉得自己找到了他就是中本聪的铁证时，他就会突然摆出一副神色躲闪的样子。

更何况，我们用常识想一想，就能想明白——作为比特币的发明者，中本聪的真实身份一旦曝光，世界上有多少犯罪分子会盯上他？又有多少个国家的税务部门想找他的麻烦？如果你是中本聪，你还会一次次接受记者采访、大谈特谈这个话题吗？还是会想方设法让自己隐姓埋名，不被任何人注意？

大家都想揭开比特币发明者的面纱，这种心情完全可以理解。这也是科技界最大的谜团之一。众多知名媒体前赴后继，却始终未能破解这个谜团。可惜对于卡雷鲁和《纽约时报》而言，他们这一次可能又闹了一个乌龙。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

The quest to unmask Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous inventor of Bitcoin, has been going on for more than a decade now, and resulted in some embarrassing misfires. The most notorious came in 2014 when Newsweek magazine dropped a bombshell cover story claiming the Bitcoin inventor was a 64-year-old man named Dorian Nakamoto, hiding in plain sight outside Los Angeles. More recently, a 2024 HBO documentary put forth the dramatic—and dramatically wrong—revelation that Satoshi was a little known and improbably young Canadian software developer.

The latest to take up the case is legendary journalist John Carreyrou, famous for exposing a massive scandal involving fraudster Elizabeth Holmes’ blood-testing startup Theranos. In a lengthy investigation published on Wednesday in the New York Times, Carreyrou claims to have cracked the case and found that Satoshi Nakamoto is none other than British computer scientist Adam Back.

It’s not a bad guess. Back has long been an influential figure in crypto circles, and is also famous as the inventor of Hashcash, a form of digital money that predates Bitcoin. Back is also CEO of an early Bitcoin infrastructure firm known as Blockstream, and is currently operating a company that issues shares to amass a hoard of Bitcoin.

In his exposé, which runs to an eye-glazing 12,000 words, Carreyrou seizes on Back’s business activities and layers on heaps of circumstantial evidence to make the case he has found Satoshi. Carreyrou doesn’t produce any smoking guns, but instead relies heavily on characteristics that are attributable to both Satoshi and Back: the use of British spelling, libertarian beliefs, involvement in the Cypherpunk movement, and the employment of punctuation like “proof-of-work” used in the Bitcoin white paper.

Carreyrou acknowledged an obvious objection to this thesis—that there is a lengthy paper trail of Back corresponding with Satoshi—but explains it away by saying that Back was actually writing to himself as part of an elaborate ruse to throw would-be unmaskers off the trail.

It all sounds good until you recall that journalists, like anyone else, are prone to confirmation bias. This is the psychological phenomenon in which people seek out evidence that confirms their existing beliefs and ignore facts that might refute them. Confirmation bias is what tripped up Newsweek and HBO, and it appears to have tripped up Carreyrou as well.

The evidence he provides about Back’s involvement with the Cypherpunk movement and his political beliefs support his case—but are also attributes common to nearly everyone else in the early Bitcoin days. As for the common literary quirks between Back and Satoshi, Carreyrou himself acknowledges they are not dispositive.

Even as Carreyrou frantically pursues every scrap of information that might confirm his thesis, he is quick to gloss over a better suspect that is right under his nose. That suspect is the reclusive polymath Nick Szabo who ticks all of the same boxes as Back and whose initials are conveniently the inverse of Satoshi Nakamoto. What’s more, you can make the case Szabo is Satoshi without having to explain away mounds of correspondence as an elaborate ruse concocted years after Bitcoin’s invention.

Ironically, Carreyrou does point to a 2015 New York Times article identifying Szabo but quickly dismisses it. He shouldn’t have. The piece is authored by Nathaniel Popper, who not only wrote the definitive early history of Bitcoin culture, Digital Gold, but actually spent considerable time hanging out with all the early crypto figures.

Finally, Carreyrou engages in what looks like another serious instance of confirmation bias. He seizes on specific moments from his encounters with Back where the would-be Bitcoin inventor appears to shuffle and prevaricate in the face of tough questions. Carreyrou accepts this as proof he has his man—but rejects another equally compelling explanation.

Namely, Back—who again denied he is Satoshi on Wednesday—has in the past treated these encounters as an opportunity to play a journalist and put him off the real trail. If Carreyrou had been observant, he might have noticed that Back engaged in the same behavior during the HBO documentary, suddenly putting on a shifty affect during moments when an interviewer thinks he’s found a smoking gun.

There is also the commonsense test. Would the inventor of Bitcoin, knowing that exposing his identity would make him the target of every criminal and tax authority in the world, repeatedly sit down with journalists to discuss the topic? Or would they do their best to fade into the shadows?

The temptation to unmask the inventor of Bitcoin is understandable. It is one of the most delicious mysteries in tech, and one that a series of prestigious media brands have failed to solve. Alas for Carreyrou and the Times, they appear to be the latest in a growing list of big swings-and-misses.

在美国将一个孩子抚养至18岁，成本曝光

Jacqueline Munis — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

受房租和服装费用大幅攀升影响，美国育儿成本较一年前上涨了1.9%。图片来源：MoMo Productions—Getty Images

为人父母的体验或许是无价的。但现实是，养育子女是有成本的，且动辄数十万美元。

LendingTree的最新研究显示，在美国将一个孩子抚养至18岁，平均成本已达303418美元。

美国各州的育儿成本差异极大。夏威夷州是全美育儿成本最高的州，LendingTree预计总成本高达412661美元；阿拉斯加州和马里兰州紧随其后，分别为365047美元和326360美元。与此同时，新罕布什尔州是全美育儿成本最低的州，总成本为201963美元，还不到夏威夷州的一半。为3至4岁儿童提供免费学前教育的华盛顿特区，以及南卡罗来纳州，分列全美育儿成本最低地区的第二、三位。

受房租和服装费用大幅攀升影响，美国育儿成本较一年前上涨了1.9%。LendingTree发现，平均租金已从上次2025年调查时的1128美元飙升至今年的1680美元，涨幅接近50%。服装费用较一年前上涨逾25%。

该研究的作者、LendingTree首席消费金融分析师马特·舒尔茨（Matt Schulz）向《财富》杂志表示：“通货膨胀正给人们带来沉重负担，这无疑是育儿成本大幅攀升的原因之一。”

在美国部分州，育儿相关成本的增速远超通胀。研究发现，根据LendingTree2025年至2026年的开展的两次分析，预计堪萨斯州和阿拉斯加州的18年育儿总成本涨幅达23.5%，蒙大拿州的涨幅达21.7%。

托育成育儿第一大支出项

根据LendingTree的分析，对于育有5岁以下子女的家庭，托育费用是占比最高的支出。夏威夷州家庭年均托育支出达40342美元，马里兰州和马萨诸塞州的家庭年均托育支出则分别为36419美元和34247美元。

全美有14个州的幼儿抚养成本涨幅不低于10%。内布拉斯加州、蒙大拿州和威斯康星州等人口稀少的州，由于托育选择有限且需求旺盛，早期育儿成本涨幅不低于23%。

舒尔茨解释道：“美国部分州，甚至各州内部分地区，被称为‘托育荒漠’——当地日托机构和托育中心的供给完全无法满足需求。这就导致当地现有的托育机构，尤其是优质机构，基本上可以随意定价，最终导致育儿费用大幅上涨。”

根据美国联邦指导标准，若托育费用不超过家庭收入的7%，则视为可负担。目前全美年均托育成本为28190美元，这意味着一个家庭年收入需达到402708美元，才能负担得起这笔托育开支；但全美二孩家庭的平均年收入仅为145656美元，仅略高于目标收入的三分之一。

美国幼儿教育协会（National Association for the Education of Young Children）2月的一项调查发现，65%的托育中心和51%的公立学校托育项目上调了学费。近三分之一的家庭式托育机构也上调了收费标准。

舒尔茨表示：“对于真正需要托育服务的家庭而言，这无疑是个难题。我们固然希望人们能依靠亲戚或信任的朋友照看孩子，但很多人根本没有这样的选择，因此只能承担日托机构开出的任何费用。”

高托育成本的长期影响

舒尔茨表示，高昂的托育成本会严重冲击家庭长期储蓄规划，包括应急储备金、子女大学教育金或退休储蓄。

“这让本就处境艰难的家庭，生活几乎难以为继。这也是为什么如今有那么多人，在决定是否组建家庭、生育几个孩子时，将经济因素纳入核心考量。”

对部分家庭而言，他们甚至面临着“父母一方辞职带娃”还是“承担高额托育费用”的两难抉择。

舒尔茨表示：“尽管我们希望不必考虑养育子女的成本，但若不考虑这些，其实是对自己和家庭不负责任，因为对于我们绝大多数人而言，养育孩子的开支都绝非一笔小数目。”（财富中文网）

译者：中慧言-王芳

The experience of being a parent may be priceless. But the reality is there’s a price tag on raising a child, and it’s up in the hundreds of thousands.

The average cost of raising a child over the course of 18 years in the U.S. has reached $303,418, according to a new study from LendingTree.

The total cost varies widely by state. Hawaii is the most expensive state to raise a child, with LendingTree projecting a price tag of $412,661. Alaska and Maryland follow behind with $365,047 and $326,360, respectively. Meanwhile, New Hampshire is the cheapest state to raise a child, costing $201,963, less than half the price of Hawaii. Washington, D.C.—which offers free preschool for three- and four-year-olds—and South Carolina come in second and third place for the least expensive places to raise a child.

The cost of raising a child is up 1.9% from a year ago due to significant increases to rent and clothing costs. LendingTree found that the average rent has spiked from $1,128 from their last survey in 2025 to $1,680 this year, a nearly 50% increase. Clothing costs were up by more than 25% from a year ago.

“Inflation is just taking a toll, clearly, on people, and it’s certainly one of the reasons why we saw such significant growth here,” Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree, who authored the study, told Fortune.

In some states, the costs associated with raising a child are increasing much faster than the rate of inflation. The study found that Kansas and Alaska’s projected 18-year child-rearing costs jumped 23.5% between LendingTree’s 2025 and 2026 analyses, and Montana increased by 21.7%.

Childcare is the most expensive child-rearing cost

Childcare costs are by far the highest expense for families with children under 5, according to LendingTree’s analysis. Parents in Hawaii pay an average of $40,342 per year, whereas families in Maryland and Massachusetts pay $36,419 and $34,247, respectively.

Fourteen states saw the cost of raising a small child increase by at least 10%. Sparsely populated states such as Nebraska, Montana, and Wisconsin all saw early childrearing cost jump by at least 23% due to the lack of options and high demand.

“A few states and even areas within various states are what are called ‘childcare deserts,” where there’s just not nearly enough supply of daycare and child care centers to keep up with the demand for it,” Schulz explained. “So what happens is that the ones that are there—and especially the really good ones that are there—can charge basically whatever they want to charge, and it ends up driving up the rates quite a bit.”

Childcare is affordable if it consumes no more than 7% of household income, according to federal guidelines. With childcare costs averaging $28,190 a year, a household would have to earn $402,708 for it to be considered affordable, but the average two-child household has an average income of $145,656, just over one-third of that target.

A February survey from the National Association for the Education of Young Children found 65% of childcare centers and 51% of public-school-based programs reported tuition increases. Nearly a third of home-based childcare providers raised tuition.

“It’s a real challenge for people who really need the help,” Schulz said. “As much as we wish that people had a relative or a trusted friend that they could lean on for that sort of thing, a lot of people just don’t have that choice, so they have no other choice but to pay whatever they need to for daycare.”

The long-term consequences of childcare costs

High childcare costs are detrimental to long-term savings like building an emergency fund or putting money away for college or retirement, Schulz said.

“It just turns a really challenging situation into an almost unmanageable one for people, and that’s why we see so many people factoring in finances when it comes to deciding whether to start a family or how many kids they might have.”

For some families, it’s the choice between a parent working or paying for childcare.

“As much as we wish that we didn’t have to to think about the cost of being a parent, you’re doing yourself and your family a bit of a disservice if you don’t, because there are very, very few among us who, for for whom the cost of raising a child is not significant,” Schulz said.

香港稳定币发牌，真正的竞赛刚刚鸣枪

刘兰香 — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

进入4月之后，霍尔木兹海峡依旧不太平。美伊停火协议的脆弱窗口下，有消息称伊朗革命卫队计划对通过该海峡的每一艘油轮征收“加密货币通行费”，每桶原油1美元，也即一艘满载200万桶的超大型油轮，单次需支付价值200万美元的比特币或稳定币。在该传闻尚待证实之际，一万公里外的香港中环，金管局正式向两家机构颁发了首批稳定币发行人牌照。

获得牌照的两家机构是汇丰银行及渣打银行控股的合资公司“碇点金融科技”。针对这一牌照的36份申请，最终只通过了两张。这不是香港第一次在数字资产领域展现审慎，此时更是向全球传递了一个清晰的信号：稳定币不是投机工具，而是下一代金融基础设施的核心组件。

一面是战火与封锁催生的“野生”加密支付传闻，一面是香港的合规稳定币牌照落地。两种路径指向同一个焦虑：在数字金融时代，谁掌握稳定的、可编程的、被信任的货币接口，谁就能在未来的全球支付版图中占据一席。

4月10日，香港金管局根据《稳定币条例》公布首批持牌名单。结果出乎一些人的意料，却在监管的逻辑之中：两张牌照全部发给了拥有发钞行背景的机构。其中汇丰银行独立持牌，计划2026年下半年推出与港元1:1锚定的稳定币，将无缝接入PayMe和HSBC HK App，覆盖P2P转账、P2M支付及代币化投资。碇点金融科技则由渣打银行（香港）控股，与香港电讯、安拟集团合资，计划2026年第二季度率先面向机构分阶段发行“HKDAP”，采用B2B2C模式拓展。

“36进2”的筛选比例，一度引发“香港是否要暂缓数字资产发展”的担忧。但摩根大通在随后发布的报告中明确指出，这恰恰是正面信号，因为汇丰和渣打作为香港的发钞银行，可以与金管局紧密协作，最大限度地减少稳定币流通对现有金融系统的干扰。

新火集团CEO翁晓奇的比喻则更为直白：“如果牌照发放过多，而行业资源有限，就会出现‘撒胡椒面’的效应，最终各方都难以发展起来。”他观察到，全球稳定币市场中，USDT与USDC两家已占据接近八成的市场份额。“香港同样发放两张牌照，形成‘2对2’的格局，具有战略意义。”

而要理解香港的审慎，必须看清全球稳定币的真实格局。

截至2026年4月初，全球稳定币总市值已突破3170亿美元。其中由Tether发行的USDT市值约1840亿美元，市占率58%；由Circle 发行的USDC市值约786亿美元，市占率25%。两家合计占据83%的市场份额，而更惊人的是周度转账量达1.96万亿美元，其中约5080亿美元被机构认定为“真实结算量”，足以与Visa等传统支付网络比肩。

但这一切并非一蹴而就。USDT从2014年发行至今，已历经十余年的起伏。Tether早期更是几乎无人问津，直到加密资产交易爆发、DeFi崛起，以及新兴市场的跨境支付需求井喷，才逐渐形成今天的网络效应。

香港的稳定币监管在全球范围内属于“偏早”的优等生，但与这些早已跑通商业路径的“野生”稳定币相比，市场体量仍有代际差距。翁晓奇直言：“香港要实现弯道超车，就需要在关键场景中打造差异化优势。”

HashKey Group高级研究员Tim Sun则提供了一个更具穿透力的分析框架。他认为，稳定币的本质不是支付工具，而是数字金融时代的本地货币接口，“它的核心作用绝不仅仅是降低链上转账的门槛，而是让港元历史性地在合规框架下实现可编程、可实时清算，并作为核心交易媒介嵌入链上资产与应用场景。”

这或许正是金管局选择这两家发钞行的深层逻辑。汇丰和渣打拥有数十年的储备管理经验、成熟的反洗钱（AML）体系，以及遍布亚洲、中东、非洲的分销网络。这些是任何Web3原生机构在短期内无法复制的护城河。

在具体的市场分工上，Tim Sun预判了一种错位竞争的格局：美元稳定币继续主导全球加密资本市场与跨境美元流动；港元稳定币则精准发力，优先服务香港本地金融体系、区域支付、现实世界资产（RWA）交割，以及本地受监管的各类金融场景。

换句话说，港元稳定币不与USDT正面争夺全球加密交易的主战场，而是在合规场景和区域贸易中建立自己的根据地。不过，从发牌到真正融入商业血脉，仍有漫长的路。摩根大通在报告中坦承：短期至中期内，稳定币业务不会为汇丰或渣打带来显著的收入贡献。

在牌照落地后，香港的机构们已展开行动。据Tim Sun透露，HashKey正在与各持牌发行方展开实质性合作，计划依托持牌交易所的优势，为合规稳定币提供交易上线、流动性支持、支付场景拓展等一站式服务，重点方向包括支付、结算及跨境应用。新火集团也在加速布局，翁晓奇称集团近半年客户增长显著，其中相当一部分提出了稳定币相关需求，新火计划在半年内筹建稳定币交易及资管业务，并明确将支持汇丰或渣打中的一家或两家。

实际上，关于伊朗“加密货币通行费”的消息至今仍未得到官方确认。即便最终实施，它也更像是一个受制裁国家在绝境中的应急工具，而非可持续的金融基础设施。但这则消息之所以引发全球关注，是因为它揭示了一个不可逆转的趋势：地缘政治冲突正在加速主权货币的数字化迁徙。

香港的选择，无疑是这条迁徙路径上的另一个极端——用最严格的合规框架、最可信的机构、最克制的发牌节奏，去搭建一个面向未来的数字港元生态。

真正的竞争，从来不是谁先发币，而是谁能率先让稳定币嵌入真实的支付、结算与贸易场景。美元稳定币用了十年建立了3000亿美元的护城河；港元稳定币刚刚拿到起跑线的入场券。正如Tim Sun所言，香港Web3行业正从早期的“打地基”阶段，正式跨入“筑高楼”的新里程。

而在合规牌照与地缘炮声之间，一场关于数字货币主权与金融基础设施的长期竞赛才刚刚开始。（财富中文网）

美军若封锁霍尔木兹海峡将如何操作？

Jason Ma — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:00:00 GMT

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周日宣布，在与伊朗的停火谈判未能达成协议后，美国海军将立即对霍尔木兹海峡实施封锁。

此举将扭转局势。此前，伊朗通过导弹和无人机袭击，实际上已使这条狭窄水道处于“半封锁”状态，导致全球五分之一的石油和液化天然气滞留在波斯湾。

在扰乱全球能源供应的同时，伊朗却允许本国石油通过该海峡出口，从油价大幅上涨中获利。

而一旦美国实施封锁，不仅将切断伊朗由此获得的巨额收入，也会进一步打击其经济。六周前，也就是战争爆发前夕，伊朗经济就已处于下行状态。

曾任北约盟军最高司令的美国海军退役上将詹姆斯·斯塔夫里迪斯估计，要封锁霍尔木兹海峡，至少需要两个航母打击群提供空中掩护，并在波斯湾外部署约12艘驱逐舰和护卫舰。

他上周日在接受CNN采访时表示，在波斯湾内部，还需要额外部署约6艘美国军舰，以及来自阿联酋和沙特海军的舰艇配合。

斯塔夫里迪斯补充道：“所以，需要在海峡两端同时进行封锁。归根结底，这既是一项艰巨任务，也是一场高风险押注。”

根据战略与国际问题研究中心（Center for Strategic and International Studies）的数据，在美以对伊朗发动空袭之前，中东地区已有18艘军舰部署，包括两艘航母及其配套的护航舰队。

自冲突爆发以来，美国已部署了一个海军陆战队远征部队（MEU），通常由三艘军舰和2,000多名海军陆战队员组成。目前，另一个MEU以及第三个航母打击群也正在前往中东地区。

斯塔夫里迪斯将封锁霍尔木兹海峡形容为一种“折中”选项：一种极端是放任伊朗控制该水道，另一种极端则是特朗普此前威胁要“彻底摧毁伊朗文明”。

他表示：“这种方式是在不摧毁石油设施的前提下，对伊朗施加经济压力，而这些设施从长期来看是需要保留的。这是一项复杂的大规模行动，绝不是棋盘上的一个简单落子。”

如果切断目前仍从波斯湾流出的那部分石油供应，能源市场很可能将进一步动荡。期货价格已经大幅上涨，而随着供应趋紧，现货价格涨幅更为明显。

同时，市场也会担心冲突再次升级，因为封锁行动将被视为敌对举措，可能引发伊朗的报复。美军在海峡附近的军舰也面临风险。此前海军官员曾将这一海域称为伊朗的“杀伤区”，其中布满反舰导弹、无人机、快艇和水雷等多重威胁。

不过，上周六已有两艘驱逐舰通过霍尔木兹海峡，开始为清除水雷、并最终为航运业打通“新通道”做准备，以恢复顺畅的商业运输。

斯塔夫里迪斯表示，伊朗方面可能会设法绕过封锁走私石油或进一步布设水雷。

尽管封锁存在诸多风险，但分析人士仍将其视为一种可以避免地面军事介入的选项。

3月13日，布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）高级研究员罗宾·布鲁克斯在Substack上发文指出：“美国可以通过切断伊朗的石油出口，从而让其经济陷入崩溃。这或许比其他任何方式都能更快迫使霍尔木兹海峡重新开放。是时候让伊朗经济承受同样的冲击，让伊朗领袖们自食其果。”

尽管布鲁克斯对美国海军是否有足够舰艇为穿行该海峡的所有油轮提供护航持怀疑态度，但他指出，军方现有资源足以对伊朗石油出口实施封锁。

如果全球石油供应进一步收紧，油价通常会被推高。不过，布鲁克斯认为，如果市场相信美国的封锁行动能够迅速结束冲突，油价反而可能出现相反走势。

他还指出，中国作为伊朗石油的最大买家，将有动力向伊朗政府施压，促使其重新开放海峡；同时，一旦伊朗出口被封锁，其政权将失去维持战争机器所需的硬通货收入。

布鲁克斯在随后一篇文章中写道：“如果对伊朗石油实施禁运，并且其经济出现足够深度的收缩，市场可能会判断霍尔木兹海峡的封锁会更早结束。因此，布伦特原油价格可能只是短暂飙升，甚至可能回落。”（财富中文网）

翻译：郝秀

审校：汪皓

President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. Navy would immediately impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz after ceasefire talks with Iran failed to produce a deal.

That would turn the tables on the Islamic republic, which has effectively kept the narrow waterway closed with missile and drone strikes, keeping one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas bottled up in the Persian Gulf.

At the same time as it’s been halting global supplies, Iran is letting its own oil exports through the strait, capitalizing on the massive spike in prices for crude.

But a U.S. blockade of Hormuz would cut off the financial windfall Tehran is reaping and further hobble an economy that was crashing even before the war started six weeks ago.

Retired Admiral James Stavridis, who previously served as NATO’s supreme allied commander, estimated that blockading the Strait of Hormuz would require two aircraft carrier strike groups that would provide air cover, plus a dozen destroyers and frigates operating outside the Persian Gulf.

Another half dozen U.S. warships as well as vessels from the UAE and Saudi navies would also be needed inside the Gulf, he told CNN on Sunday.

“So you try and bottle it up on both sides,” Stavridis added. “The bottom line: this is a big task, and it’s a big gamble.”

Just before the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran, 18 warships were in the Middle East, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That included two aircraft carriers and the escort ships that are part of each strike group.

Since the war started, the U.S. has deployed a Marine Expeditionary Unit, which typically includes three warships and more than 2,000 Marines. Another MEU and a third carrier strike group are on the way to the Middle East.

Stavridis characterized a blockade of the strait as falling halfway between leaving it under Iranian control and Trump’s earlier threat to wipe out Iran as a civilization.

“It puts economic pressure on Tehran without destroying the oil facilities, which you should want to preserve into the future,” he said. “So big complicated undertaking, hardly a trivial move on the chess board we’ve been watching.”

Cutting off the trickle of oil that’s been coming out of the Persian Gulf would likely send energy markets into more turmoil. Futures have already soared, and prices for delivery of physical barrels are even higher as shortages mount.

Markets would also fear renewed fighting since a blockade would be perceived as a hostile act that triggers retaliation from Iran. U.S. warships near the strait could be vulnerable as Navy officials previously have described it as an Iranian “kill box” filled with numerous threats, including anti-ship missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, and mines.

But two destroyers crossed the strait on Saturday to begin setting conditions for clearing mines and eventually establishing “a new passage” for the maritime industry for the free flow of commerce.

Stavridis said that Iranian ships could try to look for ways around a blockade to smuggle oil or deploy more mines. He also warned Russia and China could come to Iran aid with cyberattacks.

Despite the risks of a blockade, analysts have touted it as an option that would avoid putting boots on the ground.

“The U.S. can implode Iran’s economy by shutting down its oil exports,” Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote in a Substack on March 13. “That might open up the Strait of Hormuz a lot faster than anything else. Time to implode Iran’s economy and give the Ayatollahs a taste of their own medicine.”

While he has been skeptical that the U.S. Navy has enough ships to escort all the tankers that typically transit the Strait of Hormuz, he said it has the resources to blockade Iran’s oil exports.

Removing more supply from global oil markets should send prices even higher, but Brooks argued crude might do the opposite if a U.S. blockade is seen ending the war quickly.

China, which buys most of Iran’s oil, would be incentivized to lobby Tehran to reopen the strait, and a blockade of Iran’s exports would deprive the regime of hard currency needed to prop up its war machine, he added.

“An embargo of Iranian oil, if the collapse in Iran’s economy is deep enough, could convince markets that the closure of the Strait might end sooner rather than later. As a result, Brent might only spike briefly or even fall,” Brooks wrote in a later post.